Warming or cooling climate on earth. What awaits humanity: global warming or cooling

22.03.2019

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal Education Agency

GOU VPO Syktyvkar State University

Management department

abstract

On the subject "Environmental Management"

On the topic: “What awaits humanity: global warming or cold snap? ”

Artist: 431gr, Koptyaeva I.I.

Leader: Glazkova S.V.

Syktyvkar 2010

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………

1. What will happen to us - we will burn? ....................... .................. ............ .............................. ........ .........four

1.1. Global warming ……………………………………………………… .... .... …… 4

1.2. Greenhouse effect ……………………………………………………………… ..... 5

1.3. Facts proving global warming .................................. ... ... 6

2. What will happen to us - freeze? .................. ....................... ....... .............................. ............. ...eight

3. The consequences of climate change …………………………………………………………….… ..10

3.1. Measures necessary to prevent climate change …………… ......... 11

Conclusion ………………………………………………………… …………………………… ...... 15

References ………………………………………………………… ..… ... 16

Introduction

Everyone is talking about climate change. Indeed, it becomes very hot, very cold. Somewhere summer stretches for four to five months, and in winter it is almost impossible to wait for the snow. In other places, on the contrary.

So 2010 has already been called the "year of the vengeance of nature to man." Revenge for too active intervention in the millennial foundations of the Earth. World turned upside down.

At the same time, when Russia was suffocating from burning and heat, the beaches of Brazil and Argentina were covered with snow - people were dying from hypothermia. Our tourists, who escaped to the sea, were cold from the cold in the resorts of France. And in central and eastern Europe they could not take a step outside due to the rampant of the water element. Continuous downpours caused severe flooding in Poland, Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic.

The heat in Russia has fueled interest in the topic of climate change to an unprecedented level of hundreds of thousands of queries on Internet search engines, 17 million mentions of the word “climate”.

So, we can say that during the last time everyone just thinks: will there be the end of the world, what gifts will nature present to us. Therefore, this topic is becoming so relevant.

The objectives of this work:

What is “global warming”?
Consider the concept of " greenhouse effect»
How will climate change affect people?
What measures are used to avoid climate change?

1. What will happen to us - we will burn?

1.1. Global warming

Global warming is a process of gradual growth of the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.). Very often, the phrase "greenhouse effect" is used as a synonym for global warming, but between these concepts there is a slight difference.

In other words, global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, which is just being observed now.

What caused the warming?

One of the versions is the climate weapon: myth or reality? Researcher Nikolai Levashov claims that it is possible to influence the climate in any part of the planet with the help of radiation generated by antenna fields and retransmitted via satellite

Experts do not argue with the statement of Nikolai Levashov, they explain: to act, to give impetus, to direct the natural forces of nature in the right direction, enormous energy is needed.

Here, Oleg Onisimov (Head of Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute) assures that it is still not technically possible to do this, since the energy required for this controlling impulse is inaccessible to humanity.

It is known that the climate is influenced by natural causes (the behavior of the oceans, sun activity, volcanic eruption, as well as anthropogenic factors - people actively cut down forests that actively burn millions of tons of coal, oil, gas. Today, the main controversy of scientists is the question: degree of influence on climate change people?

Here is what Victor Danilov - Danilyan says (Director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Wounds): “We are now in a phase when the climate should warm. But it gets warmer much faster than it should have been if only natural factors of warming worked. ” one

But Igor Mokhov (director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics named after AM Obukhov) says the opposite, that the role of natural factors in the rate of temperature change is more significant than anthropogenic factors.

Most likely, each of these components contributes to global warming.

As a result of research conducted by scientists in many countries, there was a more or less unanimous opinion that the main reason for the warming that has already begun and threatening the planet in the future should be the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which cause the so-called greenhouse effect.

However, the person began to actively release the greenhouse gases into the atmosphere first of the industrial revolution - this is the end of the 19th period. From the same period, there is a slow trend of increasing global temperature. According to the rector of the Hydrometeorological Institute - Lev Carlin, these facts cannot be evidence of a person’s guilt in global warming.

And the fact that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has dramatically increased Lev Karlin explains not the human influence, but the increased activity of the Sun, which is now particularly warming the soil, and the main main storage of greenhouse gases - the world's oceans.

1.2. Greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean as a result of a rise in greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.). These gases play the role of a film or glass greenhouse (greenhouse), they freely transmit the sun's rays to the surface of the Earth and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere. The greenhouse effect observed by any of us. In greenhouses, the temperature is always higher than outside; in a closed car on a sunny day, the same thing is observed. On the scale of the globe all the same. Part of the solar heat received by the Earth’s surface cannot evaporate back into space, since the atmosphere acts like polyethylene in a greenhouse. Do not be a greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface should be around -18 ° C, but in reality it is about + 14 ° C. How much heat remains on the planet directly depends on the composition of the air, which changes under the influence of the factors described above; namely, changing the content of greenhouse gases, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes the most warming) and a number of others.

Scientists have proven: over the past 100 years, the average temperature on earth has increased by 0.8 degrees. Actually it is a lot. Here is an explanation of -18 thousand years ago, when the last ice age ended and the gigantic territories of our planet were covered with a thick layer of ice, the temperature on the earth was lower than it is now only by 5 degrees.

Facts Proving Global Warming

Raising World Ocean Level

Even a relatively small rise in the level of the oceans can pose serious problems for many coastal countries. Consequences of this phenomenon can be direct (flooding of low-lying areas, increasing coastal erosion) and indirect (loss of freshwater resources due to rising groundwater and penetration of saline seawater into aquifers). As a result of warming and melting of glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, the water level on the planet rises by 10-20 cm, perhaps more.

Melting glaciers.

Global warming is also the cause of melting glaciers, for example, the Uppsala glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) was one of the largest glaciers in South America, but now disappears 200 meters a year, Rowan Glacier, Switzerland has risen up to 450 meters.

Rising temperatures. The temperature has been documented for about 150 years. It is believed that it has risen somewhere by 0.6 ° C over the past century, although there is still no clear method for determining this parameter, and there is no certainty that the data from a hundred years ago is adequate. It is rumored that the warming has been sharply since 1976, the beginning of violent industrial human activity and the maximum acceleration reached in the second half of the 90s. But even here there are discrepancies between terrestrial and satellite observations.

This is what Alexey Karnaukhov says about the change in temperature: “After 300 years, the temperature change can be about 100 degrees, and the temperature change on our planet will not stop, that is, the changes will continue until the climate on our planet becomes similar Venusian where the greenhouse effect is about 500 degrees. " 2

There is a version that our closest neighbor in the solar system, Venus, when what the climate was like on earth, but later the temperature on the planet rose to 500 degrees, it is possible that it was because of the greenhouse effect.

However, the Carnauch theory is denied.

Alexei Kokorin states: “After tens of thousands of years, a new ice age is waiting for us, and this does not contradict what is happening now. Just the orbit of the earth, its slope, remoteness from the sun - this is an astronomical effect, leads periodically to glacial and interglacial periods. And now we are going from the interglacial to the next glacial period. ” 3

2. What will happen to us - freeze?

As already noted, the entire history of the earth is a change of ice ages and thaws. About 90 thousand years on the planet is cold, about 10 thousand years is warm. According to the geological clock, we are at the entrance to the next ice age, but due to its release of natural gases into the atmosphere, man has already postponed the onset of the next ice age by at least one, two millennia.

Speaking about the direct effects of climate change, various researchers often mention the Gulf Stream, the main battery of the northern hemisphere. The Gulf Stream carries the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico to the north of Europe, the Labrador Current carries cold waters from the north to the equator. Not far from America, the paths of the Gulf Stream and Labrador intersect, but their waters diverge safely, without mixing, because the colder Labrador seems to be diving under the Gulf Stream.

Some researchers argue that because of the melting of the ice of Greenland, the Labrador Current will become less salty - less dense and as a result its waters will rise closer to the ocean surface and block the warm Gulf Stream to Europe. As a result, icy waters that freeze half of Europe will run across the northern hemisphere. And the reason for all melt fresh water.

According to Vladimir Klimenko (head of the laboratory for global energy problems at the MEI, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences): “The Greenland glacier is really melting, it cannot but melt. Temperatures have been rising for more than 150 years, it cannot be said that it is melting at an alarming rate and that in the long run there is a danger, if not half then half, of the destruction of the Greenland glacier. I see no danger. ”4

Another version by researcher Nikolai Zharvin asserts: “The rather insignificant melting of the glacier of Greenland would be enough to flood the northern hemisphere from the beginning of 7 years later with water and then very quickly ice it.” 5

Almost the entire territory of Greenland is covered by a glacier, the thickness of which reaches 3.5 kilometers. Under its gigantic gravity, the crust of the Earth bends almost 1 km, and next to it, it is very important that the seam of the Icelandic rift passing through Iceland is by nature a very fragile place. North American and European converge here. lithospheric plates. According to the researcher's version, as a result of melting of the glacier, the pressure on the edge of the American plate will noticeably decrease and it will begin to rise. At some point, the seam of the Icelandic rift just will not withstand the pressure, it will break. Oceanic waters rush into the crust of the earth’s crust, which come into contact with the hot mantle and provoke a powerful steam explosion.

Nikolai Zharvin: “He will emit huge masses of steam into the atmosphere along with volcanic basaltic dust. Cloudiness will be created on the earth, such a black cloud and visibility on the earth can drop to 0. When the darkness is great, the biblical rain will rush to the ground. ”

Zharvin argues that the giant wave that arose after the rift will flood: St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Riga, Hamburg, Paris, Berlin, London, New York, Washington, Montreal, Otawa.

The movements of the earth's crust will inevitably lead to a change in the course of the Gulf Stream, the swelling of the seabed will push the cold waters of the North Atlantic to the surface, which will carry the icy air to Europe.

A very cold current will literally freeze North and North-Western Europe and North America. A new ice age will begin here.

Oleg Anisimov states: “Theoretically, even such an option cannot be excluded that the temperature will rise sharply and the Greenland glacier will melt in 600-700 years. And the punishment of the earth can really go up about a kilometer. ” 6

According to Anisimov, all this history of the earth has already experienced: the rise of the plates, the lowering of the plates and there is no reason for such an apocalypse to occur.

3. Implications of climate change

Global warming for our country entails both pluses and minuses. The winters will become less severe, lands with a suitable climate for farming will move further north, in many parts of the country it will be possible to grow more southern crops and early ripening of the old ones will increase the agricultural potential of the country. However, drought and heavy rainfall can lead the Krasnodar Territory and the Stavropol Territory (the main regions of agriculture) to a dehydrated zone, and in order to adapt for example the warming Siberia to agriculture and habitual territories, it takes decades to warm Siberia.

Russia has been and remains the coldest country in the world. The temperature in Russia is -5.5 degrees, in the 2nd place Canada is -5, in the 3rd place Finland is about 0.

Being the coldest country in the world, Russia spends huge amounts of money on heating homes, hospitals, schools, etc. For heating, we have to spend up to half of all the fuel going for energy needs. Therefore, the greenhouse effect is a plus for us - energy savings.

Unpredictable consequences will result in the melting of permafrost, as is known permafrost covers 2/3 of the area of Russia and 1/4 of the area of the entire Northern Hemisphere. On the permafrost of the Russian Federation there are many cities, thousands of kilometers of pipelines, as well as highways and railways. Melting permafrost can be accompanied by significant destruction: more precipitation falls, more snow falls and the soil means less frost therefore the ground temperature rises, and therefore the bearing capacity of the foundation decreases significantly, which causes many structural problems. But there are advantages to melting permafrost, and the northern navy will gradually open up.

Other countries of the world are also waiting for cardinal changes. In general, according to most models, precipitation is expected to increase in winter at high latitudes (above 50 ° north and south latitudes), as well as at temperate latitudes. In southern latitudes, on the contrary, a decrease in the amount of precipitation is expected (up to 20%), especially in summer. The countries of southern Europe, tourism industry, expect large economic losses. Summer dry heat and winter rain showers will reduce the "ardor" of those who want to relax in Italy, Greece, Spain and France. For many other countries, living at the expense of tourists, too, far from the best times will come. Lovers of skiing in the Alps will be disappointed, with the snow in the mountains will be "stress." In many countries, living conditions deteriorate significantly. The UN estimates that by the middle of the 21st century there will be up to 200 million climate refugees in the world.

Global warming will also affect animal habitats. The change of habitats of living organisms is already noted in many corners of the globe. Sizogolov thrush began to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows appeared in subarctic Iceland, and a white heron appeared in Britain. Thanks to the global climate change the next half century may be the last in the life of many species of living organisms. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are deprived of an important component of their habitat - the Arctic ice.

The increase in temperature creates favorable conditions for the development of diseases, which is promoted not only by high temperature and humidity, but also by the expansion of the habitat of a number of animals that transmit diseases. By the middle of the 21st century, the incidence of malaria is expected to increase by 60%. The enhanced development of microflora and the lack of clean drinking water will contribute to the growth of intestinal infectious diseases. The rapid proliferation of microorganisms in the air can increase the incidence of asthma, allergies and various respiratory diseases.

3.1. Measures needed to prevent climate change

Even now, advanced minds are pondering how to level global warming processes. Such original ways to prevent global warming are proposed, such as breeding new varieties of plants and trees whose leaves have a higher albedo, painting roofs in white, installing near-earth orbit mirrors, sheltering glaciers from the sun's rays, etc. A lot of effort is spent on replacing traditional forms of energy based on burning carbon raw materials for non-traditional ones, such as the production of solar panels, wind turbines, the construction of a power plant (tidal power plants), hydroelectric power plants, and nuclear power plants.

Not a small attention is paid to the rational use of energy resources.
To reduce emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere, improved engine efficiency, produced hybrid cars.

In the future, it is planned to pay great attention to capturing greenhouse gases in electricity production, as well as directly from the atmosphere by dumping plant organisms, using sophisticated artificial trees, and injecting carbon dioxide into the ocean, many kilometers deep, in the water column. Most of these methods of "neutralizing" CO 2 are very expensive. Currently, the cost of capturing one ton of CO 2 is approximately $ 100-300, which exceeds the market value of a ton of oil, and if we consider that when one ton is burned, three tons of CO2 are formed, many methods of carbon dioxide fixation are not yet relevant. The previously proposed methods for carbon sequestration by planting trees are considered to be untenable due to the fact that most of the carbon as a result of forest fires and decomposition of organic matter goes back into the atmosphere.

Particular attention is paid to the development of legislative standards aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, many countries of the world have adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). The latter has not been ratified by a number of countries that account for the lion's share of CO 2 emissions. So, the US accounts for about 40% of all emissions (information has recently appeared that China has overtaken the US in terms of CO 2 emissions). Unfortunately, as long as a person will put his own welfare at the forefront, no progress in addressing global warming issues is foreseen.

On March 17, 2010, Dmitry Medvedev held a meeting of the Security Council on measures to prevent threats to national security in connection with global climate change. They discussed measures to implement the Climate Doctrine, as well as the main directions of state climate policy and adaptation to the consequences of its change.

Speech by D. Medvedev at the opening of the Security Council meeting

D.MEDVEDEV: Dear colleagues!

Today our meeting of the Security Council is devoted to a whole range of issues that are associated with the environmental, economic, social consequences of global climate change. Of course, their timely assessment and the correct response of the state should be one of our state priorities.

Recently, mankind has repeatedly taken on this problem, but without some visible effect. The Copenhagen Climate Conference ended in failure. The prospects for an international agreement on climate issues are unclear today, although, of course, everyone continues to work. Nevertheless, as a responsible state, we will adhere to our chosen strategy, namely, to develop an energy-efficient economy and modern so-called green technologies, to create modern energy, thereby simultaneously reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. In any scenario, it is beneficial to Russia from an environmental and economic point of view. Of course, this is a question of our national security, why, in fact, we are considering this topic today.

The Climate Doctrine of Russia, which was approved at the end of last year, is also oriented towards such approaches. In the course of its implementation, state programs were developed and introduced that are designed to mitigate the anthropogenic impact on the atmosphere, as well as to adapt it to the changes that are occurring, including on the planet - in the Arctic and our northern latitudes. 7

However, negotiations on the issue of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases are very difficult. First of all, the conflict exists at the level of officials and business on the one hand and the non-governmental sector on the other. Non-governmental environmental organizations believe that the agreement reached does not solve the problem, as a five percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not enough to stop the warming, and call for reducing emissions by at least 60%. In addition, the conflict exists at the state level. Developing countries such as India and China, which make a significant contribution to the pollution of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, attended the meeting in Kyoto, but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries in general are cautious about the environmental initiatives of industrialized countries. The arguments are simple: a) the main pollution with greenhouse gases is carried out by developed countries and b) the tightening of control is on the hands of industrialized countries, as this will restrain the economic development of developing countries. In any case, the problem of global warming is a vivid example of what mechanisms are sometimes included in the solution of the environmental problem.

Conclusion

Recently, the problem of climate change is becoming more and more acute. The climate in the world requires urgent action. Proof of this can serve the statistics of recent natural gifts.

June 3, 2009 - tornado in Moscow
July 9, 2010 - the city of Kolpino, a tornado is the rarest phenomenon in northern latitudes.
July 31, 2010 - Leningrad Region, the strongest hurricane knocked down 10,000 trees, destroyed many houses.
October 16, 2010 - the area around Tuapse heavy rains provoked a sharp rise in the water level in mountain rivers. Water flooded 22 villages, 14 people died, 11 were missing.

We considered different versions of the apocalypse and professional climatologists expressed their opinions on each version. So, there is no definite answer what awaits us: global warming or cooling. However, we know for sure that the temperature rises and over the past century has risen by about 0.8 degrees. An example is the abnormal heat in Russia, the melting of glaciers in Greenland. Also, everyone knows the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which leads to an increase in temperature, which means that the ice age is delayed by several decades.

The general conclusion that can be made after becoming acquainted with these theories is that nature has its own laws of development, the so-called natural climatic cycles (periods of warming and cooling).
This is what Johann Wolfgang von Goethe said about nature: “Nature does not recognize jokes; she is always truthful, always serious, always strict; she is always right; mistakes and delusions come from people. "

After thinking about them, you can come to the conclusion that everything that happens on earth depends on the person's deed. It is necessary to continue not only to work on this problem, but also to take concrete measures. While nature gives us a chance.

The conclusion is unequivocal not in 2012 not in 2112 the end of the world no one expects

References

1. Global climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http: //geliosldk.livejournal. com / 2039.html

2. Global warming, or a high degree of politics. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://www.vokrugsveta.ru/vs/ article / 2726 /

3. Global warming: facts, hypotheses, comments. [Electronic resource]. Access Mode: http://www.priroda.su/item/389

4. Meeting of the Security Council on measures to prevent threats to national security in connection with global climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access Mode: http://www.climatechange.ru/ node / 423

5. The problem of climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://www.climate.uz/ru/ content.scm? ContentId = 6806

6. Global climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access Mode: http://www.ecoaccord.org/ climate / intro.htm

7. Documentary. [Electronic resource]. Access mode:

etc.................

So what exactly is happening with our planet? Is warming waiting for her, or is it a cold snap?

The first point of view is currently represented among climatologists by a much wider second. However, recently it seemed strongly shaken: according to the results of satellite observations, the area of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has increased by 41 percent. The seasonal minimum, which occurs annually in mid-September, was set at 4.8 million square meters. km, whereas in 2012 this value reached 3.4 million square meters. km

Immediately the reaction went, reducible to joyful: "The hypothesis of global warming was in a pool with its supporters!" “The process we are observing is contrary to computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. It is possible that everything will be just the opposite - an increase in the surface ice in the Arctic during the summer period may be a signal that the world is nearing a cooling period,” the English predicts. The Daily Mail, referring to the opinions of climate professors. The statement by Professor Anastasios Zionis from the University of Wisconsin (USA) is also widely quoted, according to which there is now a "tendency towards a decrease in temperature on the planet", which "will continue for at least the next 15 years." The scientist cuts down on the sleeper: "There is no doubt that the warming of the climate, which is going on in the 1980s, has already stopped, and, apparently, this happened back in 1997."

Oil into the fire, as usual, poured "civilians". A few years ago, the BBC radio station announced a forecast that in 2013 there would be no ice in the Arctic. More than 20 yachts and even one passenger liner decided to mark this event with a cruise along the Northwest Passage connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans along the northern tip of the Americas. Either the brave sea explorers, who for six years remembered the long-standing talk of BBC experts, forgot to look at the current weather reports, or they so desperately believed in their forecast that they did not bother to study the actual ice situation, but they were surprised to find the real wall of ice on your way. After such an affront, other commentators no longer have any doubts: “Global warming is a myth!”, “New data allow us to speak with confidence about the global cooling that awaits the planet rather than warming”. I wonder what the proponents of "global warming" will find the arguments?

Arguments, in fact, were on the surface. Just in 2012, the Arctic ice cover was record low for all the years of observation. The relative increase in ice cover this year returns the situation only in 2000, and not, say, to the mid-1970s, when the peak of cooling in the twentieth century was recorded. In fact, if we take into account the long-term trends, then the Arctic is certainly warmer, climatologists say.

Thus, the average monthly temperatures and the lowering of the groundwater level in the circumpolar region are undoubtedly observed. As for the ice, much more important than the area is the indicator of their volume and, so to speak, their “old age”. So, with regard to the first, according to the data that Academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, at the 3rd International Arctic Forum, which has just passed, internationally known magnitude in geography and honorary president of the Russian Geographical Society, "the average ice thickness decreased from 2 to 1.5 m, ice fell 50 percent. " As for the second indicator, then earlier many years of ice covered up to 60 percent of the Arctic Ocean, now its area does not exceed 30 percent. Especially strongly this indicator collapsed for perennial ices of 4 years and more - from 25 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent today. Five times! At the same time, the data obtained from satellites show that the process of ice thinning started especially fast since 2008. And the most important thing is that scientists engaged in the Arctic are convinced that now the processes of ice melting are irreversible.

What can / should it lead to? Models built by climatologists paint something like this.

There will be no gradual warming. On the contrary, the process will go "torn", with jumps, with the onset and retreat of cold and heat, and hence with the growth of dangerous meteorological phenomena in general. That is, heavy rains, as this fall on the European part of Russia, droughts, storms, floods and other similar "joys." What was rich, in particular, this year. And now we somehow need to live with the awareness of the risk that the catastrophic floods that passed through Amur may seem like a light wet cleaning against the background of future cataclysms.

The melting of the Arctic ice will lead to a change in one of the four main atmospheric jet streams of our planet - the polar. It will weaken, making the current “zonal” one to become more “meridional”. This will lead to the emergence of blocking situations in the atmosphere - an example of which we experienced in 2010, during an unprecedented drought. As one expert noted, "warming in the Arctic leads to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather at lower latitudes."

It will rise - it is already rising, according to the testimony of academician Kotlyakov - the level of the world ocean. In recent years, the speed of this process has grown from the previous 1.7 mm per year to 3 mm. You can look at the physical map of the world to determine how soon different territories will be flooded. In particular, such key for the world economy as the low-lying parts of Holland, Germany, England, USA, China.

Russia, of course, is no exception, moreover, it is already losing thousands of square kilometers of the northern lowlands. While it is tundra, but with the continuation of the process - what will save oil-bearing Western Siberia from flooding? There and so the swamp in the swamp ...

Thus, the conclusion is simple. He was also voiced by Academician Kotlyakov at the Arctic - Territory of Dialogue forum in Salekhard. Whether warming is cooling is not so important, although, of course, the majority of responsible scientists still speak about warming, but in any case there are "climate anomalies that are not uniform in space and time" and they bring "ambiguous consequences, including within the territory of Russia ".

That is, climate change is already happening - whether we want it or not. "The whole modern way of life on Earth is such that any global climate change may be unfavorable for people," rightly reminds Academician Kotlyakov. "The fact is that the entire current economic structure has developed and developed rapidly only in a narrow period of time - almost in the last century Because of this, he adapted to the same climatic environment. "

And Wednesday, again, is changing before our eyes. So, today, humanity must in any case prepare for climate change. And learn to adapt to them.

And this means, in turn, the demand of nature itself for us all, but especially for our scientists, to start building models of not only the possible future climate, but above all - the necessary reaction to it. Is flooding possibly worse than what has just passed through the Far East? Probably yes. So, today we need to build a model of what needs to be done in this case. Is a more severe drought possible than in 2010? So, create a model of action in this case. Perhaps flooding Petersburg? Again we simulate countermeasures. And so on.

That's when any climate change will not be a surprise for our economy, similar to what the ice wall for yachts in the Arctic Ocean has become.

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Zharvin argues that the giant wave that arose after the rift will flood: St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Riga, Hamburg, Paris, Berlin, London, New York, Washington, Montreal, Otawa.

A very cold current will literally freeze North and North-Western Europe and North America. A new ice age will begin here.

According to Anisimov, all this history of the earth has already experienced: the rise of the plates, the lowering of the plates and there is no reason for such an apocalypse to occur.

3. Implications of climate change

Russia has been and remains the coldest country in the world. The temperature in Russia is -5.5 degrees, in the 2nd place Canada is -5, in the 3rd place Finland is about 0.

Global warming will also affect animal habitats. The change of habitats of living organisms is already noted in many corners of the globe. Sizogolov thrush began to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows appeared in subarctic Iceland, and a white heron appeared in Britain. Due to global climate change, the next half century may be the last in the life of many species of living organisms. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are deprived of an important component of their habitat - the Arctic ice.

3.1. Measures needed to prevent climate change

Not a small attention is paid to the rational use of energy resources.
To reduce emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere, improved engine efficiency, produced hybrid cars.

Speech by D. Medvedev at the opening of the Security Council meeting

D.MEDVEDEV: Dear colleagues!

Conclusion

Recently, the problem of climate change is becoming more and more acute. The climate in the world requires urgent action. Proof of this can serve the statistics of recent natural gifts.

June 3, 2009 - tornado in Moscow
July 9, 2010 - the city of Kolpino, a tornado is the rarest phenomenon in northern latitudes.
July 31, 2010 - Leningrad Region, the strongest hurricane knocked down 10,000 trees, destroyed many houses.
October 16, 2010 - the area around Tuapse heavy rains provoked a sharp rise in the water level in mountain rivers. Water flooded 22 villages, 14 people died, 11 were missing.

The conclusion is unequivocal not in 2012 not in 2112 the end of the world no one expects

References

1. Global climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http: //geliosldk.livejournal. com / 2039.html

2. Global warming, or a high degree of politics. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://www.vokrugsveta.ru/vs/ article / 2726 /

3. Global warming: facts, hypotheses, comments. [Electronic resource]. Access Mode: http://www.priroda.su/item/389

5. The problem of climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://www.climate.uz/ru/ content.scm? ContentId = 6806

6. Global climate change. [Electronic resource]. Access Mode: http://www.ecoaccord.org/ climate / intro.htm

Short description

The purpose of this work is to find out what awaits us in the near future - warming or cooling? What will happen to us, with our parents and relatives? For answers to these questions, we turn to the opinions of various scholars.
The objectives of this work:
What is “global warming”?
Consider the concept of "greenhouse effect"
How will climate change affect people?
What measures are used to avoid climate change?

Content

Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………………. …… ..3
1. What will happen to us - we will burn? ......................................... .................................................. .........four
1.1. Global warming ………………………………………………………… .... …… 4
1.2. Greenhouse effect ………………………………………………………………… ..... 5
1.3. Facts proving global warming …………………………….… ... 6
2. What will happen to us - freeze? ......................................... .................................................. ...eight
3. The consequences of climate change …………………………………………………………….… ..10
3.1. Measures necessary to prevent climate change …………… ......... 11
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………… ...... 15
References ... ... ...

Fig. The change in global temperature c 1830

Who would have thought? It turns out that because of the "global warming" of the climate, 300 thousand people die in the world annually. This was stated by the head of Greenpeace Kumi Naidu. Is it really because of warming? Or maybe from hunger? And not 300 thousand, but 2 million. And, mostly, children.

The Obama administration’s bosses from the “golden billion” are concerned about the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is clear that the "dog" of organized "unrest" poryta in the desire of the United States with the help of hunger and climate to rule the world. And at the expense of others. To do this, under the auspices of the United States are organized global problems, global forums and indentured agreements for milk cows.

Why can we without doubt reject the scientific validity of the former Kyoto Protocol and the forthcoming Paris Climate Agreement? The answer is simple as a children's alphabet. The Earth, as already well known for more than 300 years, revolves not around the Sun, but around the center of mass of the Solar System (CMSS), which does not coincide with the center of the Sun and is in continuous motion (see the illustration of the CMSS motion).

The deviations of the CMSS from the center of the Sun are equal to the diameter of the Sun. In time, this cyclic shift is several decades. Consequently, the process of climate change is periodically repeated and resembles a sinusoid. Therefore, floods have been repeatedly. What the author has been saying on the forums for many years.

The author’s version of the article is confirmed by studies by Russian scientists who are sharply protesting against the treacherous environmental policy of the Ministry of Natural Resources headed by S. Donsky (Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation). For what, apparently, the prime minister in 2017 threatens to dismiss up to 40% of scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

On a commercial basis, politically engaged environmentalists discovered global climate change associated with the emission into the Earth’s atmosphere of anthropogenic (that is, man-made) gases. According to the Moliny-Rowland hypothesis (1974), the release of chlorine and bromine-containing gases was associated with the death of stratospheric ozone, and the emission of so-called "greenhouse gases", primarily carbon dioxide, according to the Fourier-Tyndall hypothesis (1861) - with global warming .

The propaganda role in fueling the fear of the consequences of global warming was played by the forecasts of James Lovelock, published in the 60-70s of the 20th century and at the beginning of the coming. However, the atmospheric concentration of freon-11 presented by him, starting from the 50s of the last century until 2000, and an attempt to link these results with anthropogenic emissions of freon from industrial and domestic refrigerators, according to the scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, do not stand up to criticism. If we consider the constant eruption of active volcanoes.

In the experimental air samples of James Lochlock, the chromatograph did not see the presence of other freons, that is, impurities for which it is impossible to find an effective sorbent today. Scientific progress has not yet reached such a gas analyzer. And the nature has not thought up universal sorbents. So James Lovelock’s “pseudo-scientific linden” is obvious.

In addition, neither the influence of the corpuscular energy of the Sun, nor the emission of hydrogen and methane from the Earth’s interior when assessing the Earth’s climate change is taken into account in the calculations of the concerned climatologists. And this is despite the fact that both of these parameters are quantitatively comparable with the flow of energy coming to Earth from the Sun.

Heat flows from the Earth’s interior are also not taken into account. In fact, the Earth appears as a banal space brick, an asteroid. Without volcanoes, earthquakes, without a geomagnetic field, without interaction with the "solar wind".

Corrupt climatologists are not interested in the obvious fact that the Earth with the atmosphere is an open thermodynamic system, exchanging mass and heat with the cosmos, where several planets of different mass are located next to the Earth. Together with the Earth, they rotate around the Sun, forming the Solar System, which in turn moves relative to other stellar and planetary systems of the Galaxy.

Apparently, it is hardly known to Al Gore (Al Gore - former US Vice President, the main author of the myth of the catastrophic threat of global warming) that the Earth, moving in outer space in a specific orbit, is constantly in the field of changing gravitational effects from other planets, as well as being subject to variable heat and particle effects from the Sun.

As a result, our planet is affected by at least 25 energy and gravitational parameters. In addition to external influences, the Earth’s climate is also influenced by the Earth’s response to these impacts, primarily tectonic, volcanic and electromagnetic.

Judging by the annual reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), working under the UN auspices, the simplification of the global model of climate change in research led to the creation of a custom, apparently ridiculous process description paradigm, that is, to represent the Earth as a dead space brick. an asteroid. This is not just a gross mistake, but a fundamental fallacy!

It is not clear how it is generally possible to reliably predict the behavior of such an open thermodynamic system as the Earth and its atmosphere, without even having a physically sound process model? Therefore, another thing is clear - the world is faced with the obvious juggling of the pseudo-scientific results of individual scientists paid by interested corporations.

One more interesting fact scientific observations. Already since 1986, the sinusoid of the average temperature of the planet’s atmosphere, increasing, crossed the boundary of the statistical "norm" and by the year 2000 reached the maximum. After 2002, there was a tendency to reduce the temperature, the temperature sine wave rounded and went down.

The success of the Paris Agreement with its commitment to reduce the temperature by half a degree - is guaranteed! And the Nobel Prize to the next US president. But not at all due to the limitation of CO2 emissions, but easily predicted decrease in temperature according to the curve of the sine wave in the coming decades. Feel the difference!

This predicted decrease in temperature is the main idea of A. Gora’s global “Nobeliata” scam - to present natural processes as manageable results. human activities. Any student applying for astronomy and botany will prove that the climate threats given in the IPCC climate change reports are a monstrously illiterate scam.

What are the conclusions?

Do not tell people, gentlemen scam. No problem either global change climate, no ozone holes! Holes, as it turned out, resolved on their own.

There is no evidence of a climate change problem, as a result of anthropogenic emissions of freons and CO2. And for a long time will not be. The conclusions and recommendations of the Russian scientists are ignored by the government. By signing the Paris Agreement without its expertise and without discussion, the government exceeded its authority and the incident is subject to trial in the Constitutional Court.

Ecology has ceased to be a science, it has become an instrument of US geopolitical pressure in the context of the neo-globalism doctrine to achieve its political and economic goals.

Instead of producing bread and butter, greedy businessmen of the “golden billion” offer to save themselves from global warming, but at the same time they offer to grow rapeseed and corn for biofuel production, thereby the fertile layer of the Earth's humus is the source and foundation of life on Earth! - Pass through the exhaust pipe of the motors. The Martian apocalypse scenario is provided.

Such an “alternative” approach is a crime against humanity. With all the consequences for civilization.

Probably, in order to avoid such difficulties, it is worth understanding what the scientists say about them.

a) Warming or cooling?

Surely warming. Just because we live in the interglacial period (alluvium), which is characterized by rising temperatures and mitigating climate. Spring and autumn - the smoothed contrast of the seasons - are also signs of this period.

In this sense, the concept of "global warming" is adequate, it is really global and really warming. This trend is marked approx. 20,000 years ago and still continues until the new climate change, when the global cooling begins.

It is also necessary to understand the relativity of the concept of "global". The climate is not the same everywhere and at different times different natural forces act, determining the weather much more powerfully than any hypotheses.

b) Now what?

Strictly speaking, now is the time of climate leveling after a long period - during the 14-19 centuries. - period of cold snap (so-called small ice age). This moment, naturally, is characterized by ambiguous trends and an increase in the extremes of natural disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for both abnormal heat (sometimes, m., And long), and failures in minus. There is nothing mysterious about it - that is the moment. Our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will live in a more stable climate.

This case is not unique. His world already experienced when approx. 2000 BC cold weather began, which lasted until 600 BC Then, for about 350 years, there was a process of stabilization, which ended with approx. 100 BC so-called "Roman climate optimum".

It lasted until 500 AD, after which an imbalance occurred, which lasted until 1000. After a brief warming, which caused an explosive growth in Europe (the Crusades came during this period), the climatic pendulum finally swung towards cooling. "Little Ice Age" (14-19 centuries).

We should not forget about the influence of the Sun, in particular, about the possible correlation solar activity with climatic phenomena.

The man here, naturally, has nothing to do with it.

c) A term or "little red word"?

So, the concept of "global warming" is assigned a very definite meaning - this is a long-term (measured in hundreds of years) tendency to increase the average temperature on the planet. This means that the model explains the macroclimatic phenomena and the argument that in such and such a year there is a lot of ice in the Arctic, and in such and such a little it is simply irrelevant.

Another thing, what is the cause of this phenomenon. Geological causes are recognized as much as climatology and paleontology exist, i.e. already 150 years. Kremer (late 19th century), the last major systematic geologist, wrote about global warming.

However, with the middle. 1950s Such a factor as NTP (scientific and technical progress) and the consequences that it entails began to be taken into account. Scientists (statistics, mathematicians, technologists) began to calculate various options for the influence of man on nature. Such an option is, for example, the concept of atomic winter (Fallout), put forward by Soviet scientists in the 1960s. At the same time, the Club of Rome put forward the concept of “growth limits,” based on the idea of depleting the main energy resources to the beginning. 21 in. Finally, climatologists proposed a theory of the growing influence of fuel burned on climate and, respectively, a theory of "global warming."

Each of these concepts is speculative and hypothetical, but they were used differently. The Fallout concept led to a movement to reduce weapons of mass destruction, which is good. The concept of "growth limits" raised the question of alternative energy and environmental conservation, which is also good. But the concept of "global warming" was adopted by financiers and made a market instrument out of it (Kyoto Protocol).

So a completely serious hypothesis turned into a "little word", and sometimes a political argument. What could not but cause opposition (remember the "climategate"). Does this have to do with climatology proper and the study of climate variations?

No, it does not. Because one should pay attention not to the speeches of politicians, but to the scientific information itself, and moreover to the context of one or another phenomenon that they are trying to explain.