Global warming means an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and of the oceans and its projected continuation. The literature of recent years provides numerous data on the trends of temperature change on Earth over the past 100-150 years. In particular, it is shown that at the end of the 19th century, warming began, which intensified in particular in the 20s – 30s of the 20th century. In the 40s, the warming ended and a slow cooling began, which stopped in the 60s and was replaced by a new warming. Clear explanation of this phenomenon has not yet been given. The results show that, in general, over the hundred-year period, the average annual temperature on Earth has increased by 0.5C. For comparison, it should be noted that since the last ice age (10 thousand years ago), the temperature on the planet has increased by only 3-5C. Warming is uneven in some areas of the Earth. There are areas where the average annual temperature rise significantly exceeds that on the entire planet, reaching 1.5 - 2.0 - 2.5 ° C. However, against the background of global warming, there are areas where the weather is changing in the direction of cooling. Some scientists are not talking about warming, and about cooling on the planet.
An increase in global temperature will cause a rise in sea level and will change the amount and nature of precipitation and the likely expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strong in the Arctic and will be associated with continued melting of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other possible effects of warming include the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and heavy rains, species extinction due to shifting temperature patterns, as well as changes in crop yields. Warming and change will vary from region to region across the globe, although the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. The limits of human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, and the limits for the adaptation of natural systems will to a large extent exceed all over the world.
Causes of Global Warming
Many things cause global warming. Climate system warming is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% sure that most of them are associated with an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases caused by human activities, such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels. These results are recognized by the national academies of sciences of all large industrialized countries. The causes of climate change can be such as: changes in the Earth’s orbit, solar activity (including changes in solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climatic observations (temperature measurements over the past 200 years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain the subject of debate. One of the most widely discussed causes is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect is an increase in the temperature of the lower layers of the planet’s atmosphere compared to the effective temperature, that is, the temperature of the thermal radiation of the planet. The greenhouse effect did not occur today - it has existed since our planet acquired the atmosphere, and without it the temperature of the surface layers of this atmosphere would have been on average thirty degrees lower than actually observed. However, in the last century and a half, the content of some greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has greatly increased. The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824, and was first quantitatively investigated by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes the atmosphere and surface of the planet to be heated. Long-term observations show that as a result of economic activity, the gas composition and dust content of the lower layers of the atmosphere change. Millions of tons of soil particles are lifted from plowed lands during dust storms.
In the development of minerals, in the production of cement, in the application of fertilizers and the friction of automobile tires on the road, in the combustion of fuel and the release of industrial wastes, a large amount of suspended particles of various gases is released into the atmosphere. The definitions of the air composition show that carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is now 25% more than 200 years ago. This is certainly the result of human activities, as well as deforestation, the green leaves of which absorb carbon dioxide. With an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air is associated greenhouse effect, which is manifested in the heating of the inner layers of the Earth’s atmosphere. This is because the atmosphere transmits most of the radiation from the sun. Part of the rays is absorbed and heats the earth's surface, and from it heats the atmosphere. Another part of the rays is reflected from the surface of the Planet and this radiation is absorbed by carbon dioxide molecules, which contributes to an increase in the average temperature.
The idea of the mechanism of the greenhouse effect was first outlined in 1827 in the article “Note on the temperatures of the globe and other planets”, in which he considered various mechanisms for shaping the Earth’s climate, while considering factors influencing the overall heat balance of the Earth (heating by solar radiation , cooling due to radiation, the internal heat of the Earth), as well as factors affecting heat transfer and temperature of climatic zones (thermal conductivity, atmospheric and oceanic circulation).
When considering the influence of the atmosphere on the radiation balance, they analyzed the experience of M. de Saussure with a vessel blackened from the inside and covered with glass. De Saussure measured the temperature difference inside and outside such a vessel exposed to direct sunlight. This is explained by the fact that the increase in temperature inside such a “mini-greenhouse” compared to the outside temperature by the action of two factors: blocking convective heat transfer (glass prevents the outflow of heated air from the inside and the flow of cool outside) and different transparency of the glass in the visible and infrared.
It is the last factor that received the name of the greenhouse effect in absorbing visible light in later literature; the surface heats up and emits thermal (infrared) rays; Since glass is transparent to visible light and almost opaque to thermal radiation, the accumulation of heat leads to an increase in temperature at which the amount of heat rays passing through the glass is sufficient to establish thermal equilibrium.
The optical properties of the Earth’s atmosphere are similar to the optical properties of glass, that is, its transparency in the infrared range is lower than that in the optical range, but quantitative data on the absorption of the atmosphere in the infrared range have been a subject of discussion for a long time.
In 1896, to quantify the absorption by the Earth’s atmosphere of thermal radiation, the data were analyzed Samuel langley about the bolometric luminosity of the moon in the infrared. We compared the data obtained by Langley at different heights of the Moon above the horizon (i.e., at different values of the radiation path of the Moon through the atmosphere) with the calculated spectrum of its thermal radiation and calculated both the absorption coefficients of infrared radiation by water vapor and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and Earth's temperature with variations in carbon dioxide concentration. They also hypothesized that a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be one of the causes of the occurrence of glacial periods.
Completely destroy the greenhouse effect is impossible. It is believed that if it were not for the greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the earth’s surface would be 15 C.
Greenhouse gas emissions:
On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapor (responsible for about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect, excluding clouds), carbon dioxide (CO 2) (9-26%), methane (CH 4) (4-9%) and ozone (3-7%). Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, compared with the beginning of the industrial revolution in the middle of the eighteenth century. According to separate studies, such levels of concentration were reached for the first time in the last 650 thousand years — the period for which reliable data were obtained from samples of polar ice.
About half of all greenhouse gases produced during the economic activity of mankind remain in the atmosphere. About three quarters of all anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide over the past 20 years have been the result of the extraction and burning of oil, natural gas and coal, with about half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide associated with terrestrial vegetation and the ocean. Most of the remaining CO 2 emissions are caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation, but the rate of binding carbon dioxide by terrestrial vegetation exceeds the rate of its anthropogenic release due to deforestation.
Changes in solar activity:
Various hypotheses have been proposed, explaining changes in the Earth's temperature by corresponding changes in solar activity. It is argued that solar and volcanic activity can account for half of the temperature changes before 1950, but their overall effect after that was approximately zero. In particular, the effect of the greenhouse effect since 1750 is 8 times higher than the effect of changes in solar activity. Later work refined estimates of the influence of solar activity on warming after 1950. Nevertheless, the conclusions remained roughly the same: "The best estimates of the contribution of solar activity to warming lie in the range of 16% to 36% of the greenhouse effect." However, there are a number of works that suggest the existence of mechanisms that enhance the effect of solar activity, which are not taken into account in modern models, or that the importance of solar activity in comparison with other factors is underestimated. Such allegations are disputed, but are an active area of research. The conclusions that will emerge from this discussion can play a key role in the question of the extent to which humanity is responsible for climate change, and to which extent natural factors are responsible.
Why global warming sometimes leads to a cold snap:
Global warming does not mean warming anywhere and at any time. In particular, in any locality the average summer temperature may increase and the average winter temperature decrease, that is, the climate will become more continental. Global warming can be identified only by averaging the temperature over all geographic locations and all seasons.
According to one hypothesis, global warming will lead to a halt or a serious weakening of the Gulf Stream. This will cause a significant drop in the average temperature in Europe (while the temperature in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent due to the transfer of warm water from the tropics.
According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donna, there is an oscillatory process in the cryo-aere, in which glaciation (the ice age) is caused by climate warming, and deglaciation (leaving the ice age) is caused by cooling. This is due to the fact that in Cenozoic, which is a cryoero, when ice polar caps thaw, the amount of precipitation at high latitudes increases, which in winter leads to a local increase in albedo. Subsequently, the temperature of the continental regions of the northern hemisphere decreases with the subsequent formation of glaciers. When the ice polar caps freeze, the glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough feed in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.
Consequences of global warming
An increase in global temperature will cause a rise in sea level and will change the amount and nature of precipitation and the likely expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strong in the Arctic and will be associated with continued melting of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Global melting This is a gloomy picture of the future, but according to scientists, it is inevitable. If we do not act, our world changes beyond recognition and we aggravate this process. Ice caps are melting and the sea level is creeping higher and higher, which is worse that we are getting closer to the turning point after which we can not stop what is happening. Other possible effects of warming include the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts and heavy rains, species extinction due to shifting temperature patterns, as well as changes in crop yields. Warming and change will vary from region to region across the globe, although the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. The limits of human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, and the limits for adapting natural systems will to a large extent exceed the world.
1. If the temperature on Earth continues to rise, it will have a most serious impact on the global climate.
2. In the tropics there will be more rainfall, as additional heat will increase the water vapor content in the air.
3. In dry areas, rain will become even more rare and they will turn into deserts, as a result of which people and animals will have to leave them.
4. The temperature of the seas will also increase, leading to flooding of low-lying areas of the coast and an increase in the number of severe storms.
5. An increase in temperature on Earth may cause a rise in sea level, since:
a) water, heating becomes less dense and expands, the expansion of sea water will lead to a general rise in sea level.
b) an increase in temperature can melt part of the perennial ice covering some land areas, for example, Antarctica or high mountain ranges. The resulting water will eventually flow into the sea, increasing their level.
Global Warming Prevention Measures
The main measure to prevent global warming can be formulated as follows: find a new type of fuel or change the technology to use current fuels. This means that you need:
1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
2. In boiler rooms, in factories and factories install facilities for cleaning emissions into the atmosphere.
3. Abandon traditional fuels in favor of more environmentally friendly.
4. Reduce deforestation and ensure their reproduction.
5. Create laws to prevent global warming.
6. Identify the causes of global warming, monitor them and eliminate their consequences.
Fortunately, not everyone shares these concerns. The latest data obtained from the processing of images from satellites do not confirm the prospect of a global disaster, outlined by pessimistic scientists. They instill hope that humanity will be able to cope with the looming threat. For example, reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of energy use, reducing heat and fuel leaks, re-equipping the energy complex, switching to safer fuels, for example, from fuel oil to gas. Due to the slowdown in the consumption of fossil fuels - a resource, as is known, fundamentally non-renewable. Through the development of alternative, environmentally friendly technologies for energy.
Currently, there is a lot of talk about global warming. We notice that in recent years, the weather has begun to change significantly: a prolonged winter, late spring, cold summer. How do climate scientists explain these changes?
Currently, there are two diametrically opposed points of view. Proponents of the first point of view argue that global warming is currently occurring. Some researchers believe that this is due to changes occurring in space, others - due to the growth of greenhouse gases. On the issue of the reasons for the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases there are also disagreements. Some experts believe that in the ongoing cataclysms of nature a person is to blame for polluting the environment with greenhouse gases: nitrogen dioxide, methane, freon, nitrous oxide. Other experts believe that the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases is due to natural sources - volcanoes. And the contribution of the anthropogenic factor is very small. Indeed, according to statistical data from anthropogenic sources only 3.5% of carbon dioxide is emitted from the total amount of carbon dioxide entering the environment, and methane - 3.3%.
The second point of view is the statement that at the present time mankind is at the beginning of the next ice age. And the problem of global warming is a scientific myth. In particular, a well-known Russian geographer, Professor A.P. Kapitsa. He argues that the increase in carbon dioxide concentration does not precede global warming, but comes after it.
Fred Hoyle, president of the British Royal Astronomical Society, and Chandra Wickramasingh, a professor at Cardiff University, published an article in the “Journal of Astrophysics and Space Science”, which presents unusual views on global warming. Contrary to popular belief, scientists believe that the greenhouse effect is not a problem, but the only means that can save the Earth from a catastrophe. They claim that about ten thousand years ago, the Earth collided with a comet. With the explosion following the collision, a huge amount of water was lifted into the air, resulting in a greenhouse effect. If it were not for the comet - the climate would hardly have undergone significant changes for the better, and the development of human civilization would have been in doubt. The consequences of a collision with a comet are still felt, but over the past millennia its influence has greatly diminished, and the Earth’s climate is slowly returning to its original state. The position is aggravated by cosmic dust accumulating in the atmosphere. Therefore, an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases is necessary or mankind may find itself in a new ice age.
Despite these reports, most climate scientists support the view that global warming is currently occurring. According to representatives of the World Meteorological Organization, the trend towards global warming on the planet has been going on for 23 years. However, what factors - nature itself or human activity - have a predominant effect on climate change, there is no consensus today.
Consider first the natural causes of climate warming. American scientists studied the composition of ice samples, taken at great depth in Greenland, by the concentration of the beryllium isotope, which is formed in ice under the influence of cosmic rays and characterize solar activity. It was found that there is a direct connection between the number of sunspots and the temperature fluctuations on Earth. In addition to solar activity, cyclical changes in the Sun-Earth orientation can influence climate change. The main variable components of the orbit are eccentricity, the angle of the ecliptic and the precession. Eccentricity refers to the changing shape of the Earth’s orbital parameters, in which it varies from almost circular to elliptical in a cycle of approximately 100 thousand years. The angle of the ecliptic varies from 22.1 to 24.5 0 with a cycle of 41 thousand years. Precession is a gradual change in the direction of the magnetic pole, which runs in a circle over a cycle of 21 thousand years. Large amounts of carbon dioxide, freons are emitted due to volcanic activity. The anthropogenic causes of global warming are burning large amounts of fuel, agricultural production and other human production activities, resulting in greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere, thinning the ozone layer; predatory deforestation that absorb carbon dioxide.
What are the consequences of global warming? Russian scientists under the guidance of prof. Yu.A. Israel has been made a detailed forecast of possible climate change and their consequences. They used several scenarios for assessing the potential impacts of climate change. In the first scenario, the usual doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will occur between 2025 and 2050. In the second scenario, the global temperature will increase in the range from 1.5 to 4-5 ° C. Under the third scenario, there will be an unequal global distribution of temperature increases, namely, a small increase, equal to half of the global average, in tropical regions and an increase twice the global average in polar regions. The projected effects of climate change were considered in the context of large-scale natural phenomena, such as El Niño, which, combined with climate change, can have a significant impact on agriculture, on the growth and development of human society. Future climate change may lead to a movement of several hundred kilometers in the direction of the poles of the borders of climatic zones over the next 50 years. Changes in flora and fauna will lag behind the climate change and remain in their modern habitats, thus being in a different climate regime. These regimes may be more or less favorable for different species. The most at risk are those biological communities whose adaptation possibilities are limited, as well as those communities where climate change adds to existing stresses. The socioeconomic consequences of these impacts will be significant, especially for those regions of the world where the well-being of society and its economy depend on natural terrestrial ecosystems. Figure 1 shows a diagram of the possible effects of global warming.
Figure 1 - Diagram of the possible effects of global warming
Model calculations have shown that with climate warming, greater warming occurs in high, not in low latitudes, and in winter, and not in summer. A warmer atmosphere contains more water vapor, which increases the intensity of the hydrological cycle as a whole. But precipitation will vary unevenly in time and space. A warmer climate on Earth will be facilitated by more changeable weather than now, with the likelihood of more frequent floods and droughts, more severe hurricanes or typhoons, and more frequent heat waves. As global temperatures increase, the global circulation of the atmosphere will change due to changes in the frequency and amount of precipitation. As a result of doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide, the strength of tropical cyclones or hurricanes may increase by 40%. In this regard, humanity may be faced with the problem of the expansion of the territories exposed to tropical cyclones. It is expected that, along with the predicted violation of the atmospheric circulation and the changing nature of storms, humanity will face the problem of a significant rise in sea level. It is expected that over 100 years the sea level will rise by 1 m or more. If no concerted action is taken to erect protective structures on the coast, a 1 m rise in sea level can lead to flooding of port areas and cause damage to millions of people.
The expected sharp rise in global temperatures will affect people's health, amenities and lifestyle, food production, economic activity, patterns of settlement and migration. Projected population growth will cause serious impacts on land use, energy consumption, fresh water, food and housing. Currently, there is ample evidence that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture and animal husbandry. As a result of the projected changes, the introduction of new technologies and farming methods will be required. The implications for some regions can be very serious, including the possible reduction in production in regions that are very vulnerable today and that can worst adapt to climate change. All of this can exacerbate the difficulties associated with rapid population growth.
Semenyuk Tatyana Ivanovna
1st year student of NUBiP of Ukraine, Kiev
Miskevich Stepan Vladimirovich
supervisor, Academician of the International Academy of Ecology, Associate Professor of NUBiP of Ukraine, Kiev
According to the observations of scientists, climate fluctuations occurred constantly. There were periods of cooling and warming. Some fluctuations continued for decades, others for centuries. However, a feature of our time is the rate of climate change, its warming. It is a record for the last 25 years.
Global change Earth’s climate has become perhaps the most important environmental problem modernity. Recently, this problem has been the focus of attention of many international assemblies, since it is irreversible and threatens the safe living of millions of people.
Regarding the likely global warming scenarios, the researchers considered about 40. The most likely cause of global climate change is the greenhouse effect, a phenomenon in the Earth’s atmosphere, in which the energy of the sun’s rays, reflected from the Earth’s surface, cannot return to space because it is retained by various gases . Such gases are called greenhouse gases. These are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen and others. Due to the natural greenhouse effect on the Earth’s surface, the temperature is maintained at a level suitable for life.
It is possible that warming is partly natural, but the speed of the process forces us to recognize the role of the anthropogenic (human) factor. People, by their activity, increase the greenhouse effect due to greenhouse gas emissions. The main sources of their revenues are industrial enterprises and transport, the high tillage of soil. Among greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide has the greatest impact. It is released into the atmosphere by burning coal, oil, and gas. Agriculture practices account for about 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. These sources include fertilizers, livestock, rice checks, manure, burning savanna, burning agricultural waste, plowing.
In the worst forecasts, an increase in the Earth’s temperature by 11 ° C is predicted in the near future, a slowdown in the Earth’s rotation around its axis, and the extinction of many plant and animal species. Rising global sea levels will lead to flooding of significant coastal areas and islands. Due to the changing course of the Gulf Stream in Europe, it is not warming that is predicted, but, on the contrary, the onset of a new ice age. Global warming will have direct consequences for human health: cardiovascular and respiratory diseases will increase, psychological disorders and injuries will increase, which is associated with an increase in the intensity and duration of natural anomalies (floods, tornadoes, droughts, hurricanes, etc.). There will be a shortage of food and water. The American Research Organization - Center for Global Development - has created an online map (available online), reflecting the projected effects of climate change on all countries of the world. According to four parameters - cataclysms, sea level rise, decrease in crop yields in agriculture and total risks, the rating of countries was determined. In terms of direct vulnerability to extreme weather, 1-3 places are occupied by China, India and Bangladesh, respectively. Djibouti, Greenland and Monaco will be directly affected by rising sea levels, and indirectly Liberia, Myanmar and Guinea-Bissau. All of Africa, the Middle East, India and Latin America will suffer from the loss of fertile land. According to the specified parameters, the worst populated will be China, India and South Africa. Considering all common factors, Somalia, Burundi and Myanmar will suffer the most, least of all Sweden, Norway and Finland. Ukraine is in 149th place in terms of direct risks and 113th in general. This is a good result for our country. But without attention of these studies, the spread of diseases, lack of drinking water and other factors remained.
Due to global warming, the duration of the vegetation cycle of crops, as well as sown and wild herbs, will be shorter. Terms of ripening and harvesting of field crops will be earlier, which allegedly could be attributed to positive consequences. However, it is known that the productivity of late-ripening crops is higher than early-ripening crops. Reducing the duration of the growing cycle will lead to a decrease in grain yield and grain quality. On the other hand, an increase in carbon dioxide concentration will lead to an increase in the vegetative mass, thereby increasing the productivity of herbs and root crops, especially sugar beets and potatoes.
Foreign experts say that for many types of cereals and oilseeds, fruit trees, the weight of grains, shoots and fruits will decrease by 3-17% with each degree of temperature increase. Such changes may adversely affect livestock production due to a reduction in feed supply. The greatest danger to agricultural production is an increase in air temperature to a level that exceeds the optimal and permissible maximum value (above 30 ° C), at which the root system of plants is not able to compensate and compensate for the consumption of moisture evaporated through the leaves.
An increase in temperature can cause such phenomena as sea level rise, changes in local climatic conditions, which may adversely affect the socio-economic development of many countries. Global warming can cause unpredictable changes in the environment. The increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth in recent decades is determined to range from 6 ° C to 2-2.5 ° C. It is believed that in the second half of the twentieth century, the temperature increased by 0.3 ° C per 10 years.
Under the influence of warming, the melting of the ice of Antarctica, the Arctic and high mountains will begin, leading to a rise in the level of the world ocean. Global warming will create problems not only to the inhabitants of coastal countries, but also can lead to huge changes in the planet's climate. An increase in the average temperature may affect agricultural production, the yield and the qualitative composition of crops will change, and this, in turn, will affect livestock production. In the energy sector, hydropower will be the most vulnerable. Also, climate warming may cause an acceleration of metabolism in microorganisms, which will lead to the emergence of new epidemics among people, epizootics among animals, blood-sucking insects and forest pests will start to multiply en masse, and diseases will spread along with them.
The world unpleasantly often amazes us with new cataclysms: Everest decreases, jellyfish appear near Antarctica, and in Ukraine butterflies become larger, the optimal terms of planting potatoes have changed for a whole decade. For Ukraine, global warming already has its consequences: winters are getting warmer, and summer is often wet. The periods of the so-called off-season become more: spring comes very slowly, and autumn is not inferior to winter for a long time. Global warming is becoming one of the causes of the complication of the predictability of hazardous phenomena and the possible reduction in the period of early prediction of natural phenomena.
Twice in 3 years Transcarpathia experienced the destructive force of flooding. Destructive tornadoes, squalls, hail were observed in Volyn, in Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Odessa and many other areas. Only in the last 20 years, the number of cities and towns with constant manifestations of flooding has doubled - from 265 to 541.
Ukraine is among the states that primarily feel the effects of global warming, therefore, it is relevant to assess the threats facing our state today and the degree of preparedness for them of Ukrainian society and the national economy. The most vulnerable to global climate change of the earth in Ukraine are water resources. It is this area that should become a priority in the fight against the prevention of the consequences of global climate change in our state. In addition, the consequence of climate change will be a general reduction in surface water levels. Already today some unique resort zones of the south are under threat. The erosion of the coastal zone of the Black and Azov Seas causes destruction, threatens resort buildings, beaches, recreation areas, sanatoriums. The level of the Black Sea may rise by 115 cm by 2100, which will require measures to protect coastal resources. Forest resources will be least vulnerable to climate change. However, if their uncontrolled logging continues, especially in the west of Ukraine, the situation can become threatening, as evidenced by the extremely destructive floods that are observed almost every year in Transcarpathia.
findings
Thus, the main problem of increasing temperature is a violation of the ecological balance on the Earth as a whole, which affects all types of soil, water, air, flora and fauna and, of course, man. Global climate change on Earth will not bypass Ukraine. They can bring extremely difficult problems to our state. Therefore, the urgent need of today is to develop a national strategy to prevent the consequences of global warming for Ukraine.
Bibliography:
- Burdiyan B.G. Environment and its protection / B.G. Burdiyan, V.O. Derevianko, A.I. Krivulchenko. - M .: Higher School, 1993. - p. 200-230.
- Golubets M.A. Lectures on the course "Ecology and Nature Protection" / M.A. Golubets, V.O. Curly, S.A. Gensuk. - M .: NKM VO, 1990. - p. 215-218.
- Gubsky Yu.I. Chemical disasters and ecology / Yu.I. Gubsky, V.B. Domo-Saburov, V.V. Snore. - K .: Health, 1993. - p. 416-425.
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- Klimenko N.A. Metrology and standardization in ecology / M.О.O. Klimenko, P.M. Skripchuk. - M .: RDTU, 1999. - p. 368-376.
Yasamanov N. A. Professor, Deputy Head of the Department of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University "Dubna"
Climate plays a primary role, both in the vital activity of individuals, and in the formation, development and death of entire human civilizations. The well-being of society, human health, the epidemiological situation, the yield, the state of the economy, the rates and types of construction, work and the state of transport and highways, and much more depend on it. In accordance with the climatic conditions, the material and financial resources of the society are created, the spiritual and cultural life of each ethnic group is determined and developed. The climate has a direct impact on the technical equipment, scientific and economic potential of modern civilization. Climate plays an important role in the speed and directionality of the impact on the landscape of various natural processes. Therefore, he paid close attention to the inhabitants, scholars and politicians. Especially vividly attention to climate began to appear after the tendency to a rather significant increase in surface temperatures was established in the second half of the twentieth century, and in this connection climate predictions for the coming decades were made.
Modern global warming
In the late 60s and early 70s of the twentieth century, climatologists drew attention to the current trend towards an increase in average global temperatures of the surface air layer .. This was revealed as a result of repeated and diverse analysis of direct observations of the surface temperatures that were conducted by the weather stations of the World, starting from the end of the 19th century. Analysis of average temperatures for more than a hundred-year interval of observations showed that there is not a smooth rise in temperatures, but an abrupt transition from algorithm to growth. But against the background of general growth, years of significant decrease in temperatures were recorded, when, after some slowdown, their more accelerated growth was again observed. During these years it was shown that the increase in temperature was due to greenhouse effect atmosphere and it is caused by the presence of carbon dioxide in it. Moreover, many researchers began to consider the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not only the leading, but the dominant factor in the growth of temperatures. It is known that, in addition to carbon dioxide, the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere is provided by water vapor, methane, ozone, argon, freons, etc. However, their share, in addition to water vapor, in the greenhouse effect is not so great. Therefore, when creating the theoretical base of modern global warming, they began to neglect the presence of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and began to take into account in mathematical calculations only the concentration of carbon dioxide. Moreover, as in the geological past, the rise or decrease in temperature until the onset at the poles of subtropical temperatures or the emergence of extensive continental ice caps, as a rule, were accompanied by geologically proven changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. High concentrations of carbon dioxide, such as, for example, in the Mesozoic era, corresponded to high surface air temperatures and, conversely, when the surface glaciations developed, such as, for example, at the end of the Carboniferous time, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were even much lower than today. However, it was believed that in the geological past, the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide was significantly lower than the present, and its source was very slow, occurring in the bowels of the earth geodynamic (tectonic) processes.
The only source of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the modern era, according to the absolute majority of climatologists, could be anthropogenic emissions, since during terrestrial volcanic eruptions not so much greenhouse gases as aerosols and light volcanic ash, which significantly reduced the transparency of the atmosphere, entered the atmosphere. The exceptional scope and large amount of research in the field of modern global warming, conducted since the second half of the twentieth century, led to a distinction between modern warming and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Speaking about the causes of modern global warming, they immediately implied an anthropogenic factor. And this is with all, despite the fact that such a statement of the problem of the source of atmospheric carbon dioxide contradicts a variety of physical and geological factors. Among the many miscalculations of glaring inconsistencies, at least two. The first discrepancy lies in the fact that it is impossible to imagine a rise in the upper part of the atmosphere and the diffusion of much heavier than carbon dioxide air. They tried to explain this contradiction by the possibility of rapid mixing due to the large mobility of air masses, especially during the movement of atmospheric fronts. The second discrepancy is revealed when analyzing the course of changes in temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide over any segment of the last century. On the graphs of changes in temperature and concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, annual or two-three-year periodicity is highlighted. Moreover, this periodicity is interdependent and consistent. But they tried to ignore her and avoid silence. Meanwhile, it is not only important, but it contains the key to the source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. If we take into account the correctness of the anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide, then we must assume that this source must act constantly and never slow down, but rather accelerate all the time. Indeed, in the world, industrial production is expanding every year and the need for burning mineral fuels is increasing all the time, and this process never slows down or stops. The frequency of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which record direct observations, implies the action of a natural source.
Such a global natural source is most likely ocean volcanism, about which in the 60s and 70s of the twentieth century there was little that is known and certain terrestrial landscapes. However, in this case we can talk not so much about direct emissions of carbon dioxide from the earth’s surface into the atmosphere, which is unlikely due to its high density, but about another greenhouse gas - methane, whose concentration in the atmosphere as well as carbon dioxide is continuously increasing. Although methane according to NASA researchers has a 20-fold heat retention effect compared to carbon dioxide, its role in modern global warming consists not so much in direct participation in the greenhouse effect, but in the fact that methane is the direct source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. When methane enters the atmosphere, it reacts with oxygen and hydrogen molecules. And this reaction is particularly vigorous in the upper part of the troposphere and the lower part of the stratosphere. Methane not only partially destroys ozone, but after reactions with oxygen and hydrogen, it recreates carbon dioxide and water vapor, that is, gases that have the highest greenhouse effect. If the former due to its high density slowly descends into the troposphere, thereby increasing concentration in it, water vapor is redistributed in the upper part of the troposphere, creating nacreous clouds, which, in addition to their greenhouse role, also change the transparency of the atmosphere and thereby regulate the flow solar heat to the surface of the earth.
After that, it is important to answer the question of where and how can such an enormous amount of methane that can change surface temperatures enter the atmosphere. It is well known that the main producer of methane on the earth's surface are lake-marsh systems and tundra landscapes, in which organic matter decomposes under conditions of oxygen deficiency and a “marsh” gas is created. A similar producer of methane are tropical mangrove landscapes that are common in the coastal lowlands on both sides of the equator, as well as the areas within which deposits of solid, liquid and gaseous combustible minerals are located.
Just a few years ago, a new and most powerful source of methane was discovered, which is located at the bottom of the oceans. Within its borders there is a global system of mid-ocean ridges, the total length of which is 60,000 km. Through faults in the axial part of these ridges, called rifts, the mantle substance enters the surface of the ocean floor with a certain periodicity, which changes in contact with sea water. In the process of hydration occurs methane. This light gas quickly reaches the ocean surface and is released into the atmosphere. However, it is known that during underwater eruptions, besides methane, carbon dioxide and various thin volcanic material are emitted. If carbon dioxide dissolves well in cold bottom waters and is later spent on hydrobiont metabolism, thin volcanic material settles on the seabed on the slopes of submarine volcanoes and mid-ocean ridges. Volcanic phenomena within the World Ocean also occur within the so-called subduction areas, in areas of collision of oceanic lithospheric plates and in the locations of island arcs. Methane intake in these parts of the World Ocean is regulated only by the conditions and volcanic eruptions occurring. In the event that they are submarine, methane is mainly emitted, and during ground eruptions, as is the case, for example, on Aleutian, Hawaiian, Commander and other island arcs or on Kamchatka, a small amount of volcanic gases is emitted into the atmosphere, but very much and pyroclastic material. Long-term presence of the latter in the atmosphere leads to a deterioration in the transparency of the atmosphere and leads to a decrease in temperature. Thus, as the periodicity of volcanic phenomena itself, the type and location of underwater effusions causes the periodicity of methane entering the atmosphere and regulates temperature changes and atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. In other words, the predominance of spreading (crustal expansion) phenomena that occur in areas of development of the mid-ocean ridges or subduction areas (areas of convergence of lithospheric plates), which is fixed by island arcs and collisions with the corresponding nature of underwater or terrestrial volcanic eruptions leads to atmospheric methane, that of volcanic ash, but sometimes the processes of underwater volcanism, just as on the earth’s surface, fade out, i.e. there is a temporary suspension of these global processes. In the latter case, the Earth’s atmosphere, with respect to the temperature regime due to the previous portion of methane and carbon dioxide, begins to act as a conventional inertial “heat engine”.
In connection with a certain shift of emphasis on the origin of modern global warming, consideration of climate effects is important.
Pages of the past
In Russia, the idea that summer is hot and stormy, autumn is golden and rainy, winter is cold and snowy, and spring is friendly has taken root in Russia. We know perfectly well that many well-known signs of the weather are less and less confirmed, but we always listen to them involuntarily. Signs of weather and climate have a long history. Entire generations of our compatriots scrupulously watched the weather, collected relevant materials and compiled weather calendars or calendars with the help of which they tried to guess what the upcoming seasons of the year would be. This could be done only when the climate system is stable and operates without failures. The more stable the climate, the longer the time it ensures the sustainable development of the biosphere and creates the most comfortable conditions for human existence. Climate stability provides accurate and supported weather forecasts.
What kind of climate stability can we talk about if we observe that only in recent years something incredible is happening with the weather? Suddenly, unexpectedly cold May 1999 comes unexpectedly, or after only six months, November, which is very cold with 15-20 degree frosts, arrives at the European part of Russia. The unprecedentedly cold and snowy May of 2001 and the long, cold autumn of 2000 and 2001 were also unpredictable. And at the same time, against the background of cold spring and autumn, the winters of 2000, 2001 and 2002 looked very strange with little snow with frequent and long thaws.
Before our eyes, calendar dates of seasons are increasingly shifted. And not only in Russia. In recent decades, Europe is being invaded by unprecedented snowfalls, then in the middle of winter heavy rains and long rains fall on it, then suddenly under the action of warm air flows the rapid melting of snow begins, rivers run out of banks, vast areas are covered with melt water. Floods not only cause great material damage, but also lead to human casualties. And at the same time, in the western hemisphere, unbearable heat strikes the United States and Mexico every summer, accompanied by thunderstorms and powerful tornadoes (tornadoes). The weather seemed furious. But on different continents, it is rampant in its own way. Each of us, watching the "antics" of the weather, involuntarily asks himself and others around him puzzled questions. Where did such anger of nature come from? Who is to blame? Why it happens? But all weather anomalies are to blame for the modern climate. Rather, those violations, which have brought the climate system out of balance and stability. And this is directly related to global warming.
In the history of Earth's climate, such changes and weather disasters are not the only ones. More unbelievable weather events have happened in the past. Judging by the ancient chronicles and chronicles, in the era of the kingdom of ancient Egypt, even Nile froze. From time to time the Black Sea was partially covered with ice. Icebergs and individual ice floes sailed the Black and even the Mediterranean seas. Often the Bosphorus froze, and so much so that people could cross the strait. And this happened during the so-called Little Ice Age, that is, during the period from X1Y to the end of the 19th century. At the same time, Viking settlements in Greenland were killed. This huge island was discovered by the Vikings, but not at all jokingly or ironically called it the Green Island. At the beginning of the 9th century, glaciers in Greenland were located only in its central, most mountainous part. Groves and meadows grew near the coast. More than 300 years, the Vikings managed to live on this island. They cultivated crops and engaged in cattle breeding. But there was another climate change. Starting from the second half of the 16th century, the ice cover, whose thickness now exceeds 2 km, began to grow rapidly on this island. Greenland itself was for a long time, almost to the first quarter of the 19th century, was blocked by sea ice. During these years, Iceland was subjected to ice blockade. From the end of the 19th century, these areas of the North Atlantic did not freeze. Only from time to time huge icebergs drift along them, detached from the Greenland ice sheet. In the period of the small ice age, i.e. in the late Middle Ages and until the end of the 19th century, the Baltic Sea periodically froze, the canals of Holland were covered with ice, the Danube, the Rhine, the Elbe and other rivers of Europe partially froze.
During these years, very severe frosts tormented Russia, and not only in winter. Sometimes the unexplainable happened. So at the beginning of the 17th century, frost fell in Russia in the summer. These summer frosts were in July and at the very beginning of August. The Little Ice Age had a very hard effect on agriculture in Europe and Russia. Hundreds of villages went bankrupt and ceased to exist. Yield sharply decreased. There was a loss of livestock and, as a result of all this, famine ensued. And at the same time with the weather cataclysms raging unstoppable natural disasters.
As a result of global warming, when one climate changes to another, a previously stable relationship between climate-forming systems, and especially between the atmosphere and the hydrosphere, is known to change, which are known to continuously exchange energy and matter. Such instability is expressed in the frequent change of practically unpredictable extreme weather events, which we call natural disasters. These include storms and typhoons, tornadoes (tornadoes) and hurricanes, droughts, dry winds, snowfalls and frost, hail, heavy rains and prolonged rains. They in turn cause floods, mudflows and landslides, failures, etc. It is impossible to get used to the elemental phenomenon. They cause enormous material damage and lead to great casualties among the population, and at the same time they occur more and more often and become more and more intense. In addition, they are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, but they are the ones who report and record the discrepancy in the climate machine, foreshadowing major climate changes. They let you know that a period of instability has begun and warns that the Earth’s climate is moving from one state to another and this transition has just begun, but it can continue for quite a long time.
Natural disasters, climatic factors cause great damage. According to various reports, the damage from atmospheric and hydrospheric natural disasters is estimated over the past decades only for the territory of Russia at $ 50 billion a year. Approximately the same damage is annually affected by the territories of Europe and North America.
Even when the climate is in a stable state, it is very difficult to predict, but it is even more difficult to predict it in the period of a disordered state of the climate machine. This requires a lot of components and among them the speed, direction and intensity of natural processes occurring in such global systems as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, the upper part of the lithosphere and the biosphere, which are caused by their very complex relationships. These sets of natural processes have a different duration from decades to hundreds of thousands of years. And therefore, for a correct and objective climate forecast, it is first necessary to know the cyclical nature climate change. This means that you need to have knowledge of the causes of climate change, both in the geological and historical past, and, to the extent possible, to determine their precise qualitative and quantitative characteristics.
Climate fluctuations in the Quaternary period from cold glacial eras to warm interglacials and, conversely, unequivocally indicate that during the periods of their shift they were characterized by occurrences of extremely extreme weather changes. And this account has numerous geological documents. Thanks to studies of the composition of air bubbles from ice sheets from cores of Greenland and Antarctica, which have accumulated over the past 400 thousand years, it was possible to determine the change in temperature, the degree of dustiness of the atmosphere and the carbon dioxide content in it.
What can we expect from global warming?
According to existing forecast estimates, by 2025 the average global temperature on the planet will rise by 1–1–5 ° C, and by the end of the 21st century, if nothing changes in the climate system, and the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase, it will increase by 3.5-4 ° C. What will this lead to? After all, it gets warmer everywhere in different ways. The most minor changes will occur in equatorial and tropical latitudes. Here, modern global warming affects only the amount and, especially, the degree of precipitation distribution. In turn, this will lead to a gradual moistening of the deserts of the northern and southern arid regions, the change of savanna in tropical rain forests. In general, all this will be reduced not only to a significant reduction in the areas of the Sahara desert, the southern part of the Gobi and other deserts of the World, but also will be accompanied by an increase in the yield of the Sahel region of Africa and southern Europe.
Very strong changes will occur in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere, especially in a large part of Russia. In the first quarter of the 21st century, the winters will be softer by 5-7 o C. This means that in the European part of Russia the winters that already resemble Western Europe will become almost the same. They will be slightly frosty, but with heavy snow. Do not be surprised by sharp fluctuations in winter temperatures. Due to the fact that the territory of Russia is open to the free distribution of cold air flows from the Arctic Ocean, as long as this ocean is ice-cold, waves of cold will roll down to the southern mountain ranges. But only in contrast to previous years, the number of frosty days will decrease, and the frosts will increasingly be replaced by thaws. The summer will become hotter, and the duration of the spring-summer-autumn warm period will begin to lengthen. Snow melting will begin more and more often, spring floods will become more abundant, the summer season will increase, and autumn will become warmer and longer. Late autumn will increasingly resemble the "Indian Summer." Simultaneously with the increase in the temperature factor, the amount of precipitation will increase by 10–20%. This means that crop yields and livestock and poultry productivity will increase significantly.
Warming entails a change in landscape settings. More comfortable in terms of weather, places will become in the south, but at the same time a number of territories will be affected by the negative impact of climate. Heat-loving plants will move to the north. This will lead to the fact that in the suburban suburban areas the cultivation of grapes, eggplant, watermelons and melons, turn from exotic into commonplace. At the same time, it grew during the period of low climatic optimum, that is, at the beginning and in the middle of the Middle Ages, grapes in England and in the north of Germany. Even now, grapes are grown in some places in the center and in the north of Germany. As an independent element of the landscape, tundra and forest-tundra will cease to exist on the shores of the Northern Ocean, which can no longer be called Arctic, since it will most likely be covered seasonal ice, taiga forests with a mixture of deciduous trees will grow.
Of particular concern is the state of permafrost. which many continue to incorrectly call "permafrost." We are repeatedly convinced that nothing eternal exists on earth, and indeed, according to paleogeographic data, the “permafrost” that we are seeing today arose only 20 thousand years ago, and before that during the so-called Mikulinsky interglacial period, when it was much warmer than in the modern era, it was not at all. As was not the case in the very warm Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic. In these eras, large areas of Siberia and Northeastern Russia were surrounded by seas with a thermophilic fauna, and the Arctic islands and the surrounding lowlands were covered with coniferous-deciduous and even deciduous forests.
As a result of the spread of modern warming, the rate of melting of permafrost soils sharply increases and their area decreases. But many cities and towns, highways, pipelines and much more in Eastern Siberia are built precisely taking into account the effects of permafrost. Thawing leads not only to the destruction of industrial and residential buildings and communications, but also will cause the swamping of vast territories.
The described scenario of the development of natural conditions by the end of the first quarter of the XX1 century seemed to bode nothing bad for Russia. However, it seems so only at first glance. Moving the landscape areas to the north will cause arid (arid) landscapes to shift in the same direction. The steppe and forest-steppe regions, the main granaries of our country, due to frequent droughts, will turn into sandy and clayey deserts. And, although the climatic conditions in the northern regions will become the same in the modern central regions, the soil fertility here will not increase. This will be due to the fact that the rate of formation of fertile black earth soils will lag significantly behind the rate of change of climatic conditions.
The climate in Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, the Near and Middle East and Southeast Asia will undergo even more serious changes. In all these regions, temperatures will change slightly, but will become more arid. The latter is due to the fact that with global warming the difference between equatorial and polar regions becomes less and less. This will lead to a weakening of cyclonic activity, which will cause a reduction in moisture and the peculiarity of its redistribution on land. Severe droughts and forest fires, similar to those that covered Indonesia in 1998, and in 2001-2003 more and more often begin to fall on the tropics and subtropics. raged in Australia and South America. Reducing moisture will lead to the rapid spread of deserts in these regions. In the United States, Western Europe, Japan, China, and in some areas of Southeast Asia, the climate does not change significantly, but extreme droughts and heat, as well as natural disasters associated with disturbances in the atmosphere, will increasingly befall these regions.
Due to continuing warming, not only the change in agricultural production, but also the state of people's health is of particular concern. In urban and rural areas, an increasing number of people will become overheated. People will die from heat and sunstroke. Epidemics, which will cover the regions previously exposed to these disasters, will become ever faster.
Is it possible to raise the level of the oceans?
Of particular concern is the possibility of rising sea levels in the oceans as a result of the melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and its islands, as well as mountain glaciers. The total area of ice presently located on the earth’s surface is 30 million km 2, and their volume is 30–35 million km 3. As is known, the total volume of waters of the modern World Ocean is equal to 1,370 million km 3. A simple calculation shows that after the melting of the glaciers, the volume of the oceans should increase by a quarter. It is this fact that baffles many and makes them draw wrong conclusions, since they believe that as a result of global warming, the process of melting ice will be irreversible. And then, the level of the World Ocean may increase by tens of meters. And this is the basis for the most gloomy forecasts, according to which many of the inhabited and well-developed lowlands will be flooded. Even the most optimistic forecasts do not bode well. Here is what one of these forecasts looks like.
A few years after the beginning of intensive melting of glaciers, and it is believed to have already begun, the ocean level will rise by 6-8 meters. Even an increase in sea level of only half a meter can cause many coastal lowlands of the United States, Canada and Europe to disappear underwater. A very difficult situation can occur in the lowlands of northern Siberia and the Arctic islands. A significant part of them will be flooded by sea waters, and the rest will be heavily swamped. But along with this, the ice situation in the Arctic will improve dramatically. The Arctic Ocean is free of perennial ice, which will only occur in winter and melt in summer. Port facilities and moorings will be flooded. They, or will need to be transferred to new higher places, or build on. Despite the fact that it will become warmer in the Arctic, the weather will not improve there, but, on the contrary, will get worse. Frosts will be replaced by fogs, rains, storms and storms, which will occur both in winter and in summer. The influx of melt water will cause a change not only in the temperature of the waters, but in their salinity and chemical composition, and this will very negatively affect the life of aquatic organisms.
During the warming period, due to the desalination and smoothing of temperatures, many sea currents will weaken or even change their direction. Indeed, at present they exist because of the temperature difference between high and low latitudes. In this regard, scientists are concerned about a possible change in hydrodynamics in the Atlantic Ocean. Currently, cold saline water coming from the Arctic is sinking into the depths, and its place is taken by the flow of warm surface water from tropical latitudes. There are concerns that as a result of warming, the speed and intensity of the warm Gulf Stream, which warms the shores of Scandinavia and Britain, slow down. And it threatens big troubles for Europeans. Approximately the same negative impact will occur off the coast of Alaska, which warms the flow of Kuroshio.
In these forecasts, the possibility of further strengthening of storms and an increase in the number of the strongest typhoons with all the ensuing negative consequences is assumed. Under the threat of flooding will be the coast of Bangladesh, India, China, Indochina and Japan.
As you can see, even those not so pessimistic as many others, the predictions do not promise anything good to the people of Earth. However, in order to make reasonable forecasts, it is necessary to more thoroughly and comprehensively consider the process of sea level rise as a result of global warming. At the same time, forecasts should be based not only on simple comparisons of the volume of glaciers and incoming melt waters, but also take into account the volume of the bowl of the oceans, which never remains constant due to geological processes that occur at the bottom of the seas and oceans and adjacent parts of the land. Forecasts made without taking them into account are incorrect. At the same time, accurate accounting of many geological processes is very difficult, since their characteristics consist of variables. The most important variable is the volume of the bowl of the oceans. Within its limits, i.e. on the ocean floor, within the mid-ocean ridges, on the continental foot and on the continental slope, various endogenous and exogenous geological processes take place continuously and at different speeds. Their activity causes an increase, then, on the contrary, leads to a decrease in the depths, and all this is always reflected in the capacity of the bowl of the oceans. In the World Ocean sedimentation (accumulation) of sedimentary material occurs continuously, which rivers carry out in a suspended or dissolved state. Due to changes in alkaline-oxidative potential, temperature. Density and other physical factors at the bottom of the oceans, since its formation, volcanic eruptions occur, reef and volcanic islands grow and collapse, the oceanic crust expands or, conversely, and this means that the depth of the oceans changes. The processes leading to an increase or decrease in the depth of the sea, although in a certain way interconnected, do not act synchronously. And therefore, in some parts of the World Ocean, the depths increase, and the area of its water surface increases, while in others, on the contrary, the depth decreases, and its size decreases. Calculations show that the increase in depth, both as a result of stretching and compression of the oceanic crust, occurs at speeds of several centimeters per year and takes place in opposite parts of the ocean. Sedimentation processes, on the contrary, reduce the depths. It turns out that the action relative to the depths of the World Ocean, the processes of accumulation of matter and tectonic movements in general compensate each other. But where does the melt water disappear in this case, if the sea level remains unchanged or changes slightly? Indeed, according to direct instrumental observations of 25 years of global warming, the volume of glaciers on land and in the ocean has decreased markedly. But at the same time, the level of the World Ocean rose only a few centimeters.
In the geological history of the Earth, geodynamic events have repeatedly occurred, leading to the opening and closing of individual oceans, and then the continents were then flooded, then drained. Geologists call the first events transgresions, and the second - regressions.
Paleogeographic materials irrefutably indicate that on the Earth there was an increase in the level of the World Ocean, which led to transgressions and, while the vast low-lying land areas were flooded, then on the contrary the depths of the ocean decreased and regressions occurred. And then the ocean shelf areas were exposed. But at the same time, no transgression occurred immediately after the change of the glacier-type climate, which in the history of the Earth can be counted 6–7, into warm ones. Changes in the level of the World Ocean are confidently associated with geotectonic processes, but not with the growth of glaciers or their melting. Even in the case when the area of ice caps, such as, for example, at the end of the Ordovician period (400 million years ago), or at the end of the Carboniferous period (300 million years ago), was more than ten times the modern glaciers. After these very cold climatic periods, geological epochs occurred, characterized by high surface temperatures and a strong moisture deficit, but no transgression took place. All the "extra" water was spent on atmospheric processes. The speed of tectonic processes is very slow and their duration extends over many millions of years. Only therefore their effect turns out to be stunning.
Returning to the modern era, it can be noted that although the same geological processes are currently in operation, we are not in a position to notice their impact. This means that the change in the volume of the bowl of the oceans as a result of tectonic processes can in no way correspond with the growth of the volume of melted water.
Another variable is the volume of melt water and its temperature. During modern warming, there is a continuous rise in water temperatures in middle and high latitudes. But, as you know, with increasing water temperature increases and its volume. At first glance, this should lead to the splashing of water from the bowl of the oceans, especially since significant amounts of melt water continue to flow into it. However, in forecasting calculations, again, the well-known process is lost — evaporation. It is well known that on Earth, water makes a large and small cycles, and the total volume of solid, liquid and gaseous water in the hydrosphere always remains constant. While increasing the temperature, the evaporation rate also increases at the same time. The more melt water flows into the oceans, the more and faster it evaporates. The more vigorously formed cyclones over the oceans, which with great speed pass the ocean space and in the form of typhoons and storms hit the coast of many states. Although cyclones of extratropical latitudes are not as destructive as tropical cyclones, they also carry huge amounts of moisture and at the same time reach areas remote from oceans. In the process of global warming, the areas of arid (arid) regions are reduced. Deserts are gradually disappearing and semi-desert areas are shrinking. With increasing global warming, more and more moisture begins to participate in the water cycle, and as a result, it is most likely very problematic to expect significant rises in the level of the World Ocean.