Climate change caused by human activity solutions. Climate warming and other global environmental problems on the threshold of the 21st century

27.08.2018

MOSCOW HUMANITARIAN-ECONOMIC INSTITUTE

Theme: “Climate warming and other global environmental problems on threshold XXI century "

Completed student 2 course

Faculty of Humanities

SS-26 groups

Borisov Daniil Dmitrievich

Edited by Candidate of Technical Sciences,

associate professor, doctoral student Kokoeva V.T.

Moscow, 2008

Introduction

The road of civilization is paved with cans.

Alberto Moravia

... you, people, will transform the habitat, subordinating it to your characteristics ... And the accumulation of changed factors leads to alienation from the ecological environment and irreversible changes in its properties.

V. Golovachev “Deviation to Perfection”

“Progress is a way of being human,” said the French writer Victor Marie Hugo. And often we pay for the next steps in the development is very expensive, because progress is based on change, change, and change - it is often intervention.

The previous two centuries can rightly be called the centuries of great change. During the XIX-XX centuries, mankind has achieved tremendous success in the industrial, scientific, information, technological and other fields! But these successes were costly to nature, adversely affecting the environment in general.

And the situation continues to get worse. Almost every day we see on the pages of newspapers and magazines, news sites sites articles about the next local pollution, about new warnings and forecasts of meteorologists. And, moreover, this is a topic that really takes people's minds, they really care about them! In popular television programs, environmental issues are discussed with climatologists, scientologists, futurologists, and even with parapsychologists and predictors! There is so much information and it is so contradictory that you don’t know what to believe! But one thing is certain: the problem of ecology is acute throughout the world! In the minds of people Nature appears already in the form of some rational and punishing mankind for all the suffering they have caused. Involuntarily recall the witty statement of the journalist Grigory Yablonsky: “Be careful, we are surrounded by the environment!”

The aggravation of the environmental situation in the world also affected the business sector. Companies can no longer afford a hostile relationship with environmental organizations and consumer groups. An organization conflicting with the “greens” will drop its dignity in the eyes of the public, which will certainly affect the level of profit in the best way.

Therefore, now the minds of scientists from all over the world are engaged in solving issues of protecting the natural and environmental environment in connection with such phenomena as global warming, thinning of the ozone layer, depletion of natural energy resources, air pollution, hydrosphere, etc.

Global warming

If I may say so, global warming is perhaps the most popular environmental problem of our time. It is to her today that most of the newspaper and magazine articles are devoted, it is more often discussed by people, and it is more often found as the plot basis of science fiction novels or films. Perhaps this is due precisely to the proximity of this catastrophe to our time. Although this is also a controversial moment - some scientists believe that there will be no global warming ... But more on that later.

Generally what is it - global warming climate? This is a process of gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean. What will lead to such temperature changes? To the melting of glaciers, and, consequently, to an increase in the level of the World Ocean. Also, some animals (living on these same glaciers, and not only on them) will naturally be forced to change their habitat - where the zone will be more acceptable for them. At the same time, many species of animals and plants can simply disappear, not having time to adapt to a rapidly changing habitat. Also, rising temperatures will change the weather on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic cataclysms is expected; longer periods of extremely hot weather; there will be more rain, but this will increase the likelihood of drought in many regions; increased flooding due to hurricanes and rising sea levels. But everything, of course, depends on the specific region. And what will happen to people in this situation? Humanity will face such serious problems as a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, difficulties in agriculture due to droughts, which, of course, will make life difficult and will inevitably lead to a decrease in the global population.

Why do people still expect global warming and, consequently, the flood? Because from the headlines of newspapers and magazines, from TV screens, computer monitors and radio speakers, we get tremendous news about the latest research, the discoveries of scientists in favor of this theory? Because in the past few years we have been seeing warmer, indecent winter? Because the animals in the zoo or the trees in the gardens behave somehow unnatural, unusual? This is quite true. People believe that - they see that I feel, which seems to be obvious. But what arguments do scientists use to defend the theory of global climate warming?

Frankly, almost none. You can say the information is outdated, the alarm is false! And the thought of this is gradually spreading across the planet faster and faster. There are new information indicating the fallacy of the previously proposed hypotheses. And, I think, on the threshold of the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the theory of global warming will be rejected. If only it was not too late ...

But still, what are these hypotheses?

Naturally, all of them are in one way or another connected with the Sun, solar activity, because the Sun is the main source of life on our planet! Some hypotheses suggest that solar Activity will increase, increasing the average temperature of the planet by 1.5-2 degrees. Others - that solar heat will reach the planet as before, but will not come back, which will create unbearable living conditions.

Consider and evaluate these hypotheses in order.

Cycles of Milankovitch

Milutin Milančkovic was a Serbian astrophysicist who developed the theory of the periodicity of glacial periods. His explanation is connected with changes in the Earth’s orbit (which are called “Milankovitch cycles”). Each planet revolves around the sun in an elliptical orbit. In addition, according to the law of conservation of angular momentum, if the Earth rotates around its axis, then the direction of this axis in space should remain unchanged. But in the real solar system, the Earth is affected by the attraction of the Moon and other planets, and this attraction has a weak but very important influence on the Earth's orbit and on the Earth's rotation. This influence is expressed in three ways:

Precession (P in Figure 1). This is the effect of slow rotation of the earth's axis along a circular cone. Moreover, the period of its full turnover is approximately 25.750 years. Now the Earth is tilted so that in January (when the Earth is closest to the Sun) the northern hemisphere, where the main part of the land is located, is turned away from the Sun. After 13 thousand years, the situation will change to the opposite: in January, the northern hemisphere will be turned to the Sun, and

january will be mid-summer in the northern hemisphere.

Nutation (N in Figure 1). This is the oscillation angle of the earth's axis (with a cycle of about 41 thousand years). Now the axis is inclined by 23 ° to the plane of the earth's orbit. Each cycle is influenced not only by the Moon, but also by Jupiter, the angle of inclination decreases to 22 ° and then increases again to 23 °.

Change the shape of the orbit. Due to the attraction of other planets, the shape of the Earth's orbit also changes over time. From an ellipse stretched in one direction, it turns into a circle, then into an ellipse stretched in a direction perpendicular to the original, then again into a circle, etc. This cycle lasts about 93 thousand years.

Milankovic concluded that each of these factors affects the amount of sunlight received by different areas of the Earth. For example, the precession of the earth's axis affects the character of winters and years in the northern hemisphere (this is where the main part of the land is located, and, therefore, the main part of the glaciers is located there).

Milankovich understood that the climate of the Earth was changing over time. If the amount of sunlight that the northern hemisphere receives decreases, then the snow every year will stay longer on the surface. And since snow reflects light well, the increased snow surface will reflect more sunlight, and this will lead to further cooling of the Earth. This means that next winter even more snow will fall, the snow cover will increase even more, more sunlight will be reflected, and so on. Over time, a lot of snow accumulates, and the glaciers will move south. Earth will enter the ice age. At the end of this cycle, when more solar energy begins to flow into the northern hemisphere, reverse changes will occur - in some places the ice will melt, areas of soil that absorbs light well will be exposed, the Earth will heat up, and all the same three factors of variability of the Earth’s rotation will cause the glacier will recede.

But will it retreat? This theory, frankly, is rather weak to use in favor of global warming, since Most scientists still believe that humanity is now in the “interglacial period”, which is characterized by a rise in temperature. But how long will it last?

Solar Activity

The growth of solar activity is a stronger argument compared to the previous one. But now this version, as the cause of global climate warming, is being questioned. And the first to do this, perhaps, were English scientists (although, of course, the minds of other countries also had suspicions).

The myth of our star’s involvement in global warming was easily dispelled by Mayek Lockwood from the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and Klaus Frohlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland. They did this by conducting a simple analysis of the graphs of the level of solar radiation and the temperature on the surface of the Earth over the past 40 years (during this time the temperature rose by 0.4 degrees).

Solar activity is indeed constantly changing, but with visual constancy: the duration of the shortest cycle is 11 years (but there are also longer ones: 22, 44, 55, 80 years or more). So most of the twentieth century, the level of solar activity slowly but steadily increased. But one of the long cycles in 1985 passed its maximum and solar activity began to weaken, but the rise in temperature on Earth did not slow down at all, and even accelerated! Hence it is logical to conclude that the Sun is not to blame for climate warming!

But there is another argument justifying our star. A couple of decades ago, scientists believed that the amount of heat coming from the Sun to the Earth decreases during periods when there are most sunspots on the Sun (these are periods of solar activity). It was quite a logical assumption: dark spots are areas of the solar surface in which the temperature is lower than the ambient, which is why they actually look dark against the background of a shining space. (The temperature of sunspots is almost twice as low as the temperature of the “working” solar surface.) Well, since there are many dark spots, it means the average temperature of the solar surface is lower, and the heat flux too ... And only studies of recent years have proved the opposite. In December 1978, the American satellite Nimbus-7 was launched. This spacecraft flew around the Earth for 20 years, watching the sun, and found that solar radiation not only fluctuates, but also clearly follows solar activity — when there are many spots on the Sun, the Sun heats more and vice versa.

And what is happening with our luminary now? The beginning of the 21st century is the century of a deep and prolonged solar minimum. This minimum should come no later than the 25th solar cycle, and now we live in the 23rd. Our 23rd cycle began in 1996 and is about to end (in March 2008). The next, 24th cycle will end in 2020, after which the 25th will come. Moreover, for comparison: the absolute maximum of the solar activity of the last century, in 1957, is 190 units; the maximum of the 22nd cycle (1985) is 155 units, and in the 25th cycle, astronomers predict 50 units! Anything less than 100 is too little!

Obviously, we should expect from the Sun, rather, a global cooling, and not vice versa!

Volcanic activity

It is rather a subgipoteza, so to speak, because it is closely related to the hypothesis of greenhouse gas emissions. But in its weight it is also insignificant. Scientists now do not consider volcanic eruptions to be the cause of future global warming. But before that, their arguments were based on the parallel between the current state of climate and the consequences of volcanic outbreaks that are already millions of years old. That is, the essence of this hypothesis is based on the possibility of repeating the same process.

It is enough to recall the studies of European scientists who discovered that 55 million years ago, superstrong volcanic activity and powerful emissions of hot lava and smoke in the territory of Greenland and modern Britain had disastrous consequences for our planet. Powerful eruptions fundamentally changed the structure of the North Atlantic, and, moreover, contributed to the increase in temperature on the planet as a whole.

According to the results of their research, in that period, as a result of volcanic activity, a record amount of methane, carbon dioxide and a number of other greenhouse compounds were emitted into the atmosphere, which led to a sharp rise in temperature on the planet. In addition, noticeable underwater eruptions were noted on the Atlantic server, which slightly increased the temperature of the water, causing the entire plankton to float to the surface of the water and plunge into the gloom of more deeply inhabited ocean dwellers. This fact also provoked a massive death of the species.

Maybe there is a real threat after all? But after all, volcanic eruptions of varying strength and intensity occurred throughout the life of our planet! This is the same natural process as the climate variations! And, most importantly, the eruption often entailed not a rise, but a decrease in temperature, both locally and more widely.

By the way, Russian scientists decided to take advantage of this property in order to protect themselves from global warming - the volcanoes “cool the ardor” of our planet! After volcanic eruptions, a large number of very small aerosol particles are released into the lower stratosphere at an altitude of 10–16 km. Aerosol fog does not settle quickly, but stays in the upper atmosphere for years, reflecting the sun's rays. This leads to the fact that the temperature decreases on a fairly large surface area of the Earth, because it is small particles (about a micron) that cool the atmosphere and larger ones heat it. Scientists propose to artificially throw such particles into the atmosphere of the Earth. According to their calculations, the emission of 1 million tons of aerosol particles using airplanes will reduce the direct solar radiation by 1%, which will lead to a decrease in temperature by 1 ° C. Some fraction of the particles will fall back to Earth, but this will not be an environmental hazard.

Although, perhaps, there will be no need for artificial emission of such particles - geologists, scientologists and paleoclimatologists believe that large eruptions are foreseen in the near future. Firstly, because “they haven't been there for too long”; secondly, the increased volcanic activity correlates well with the cycles of circulation of heavy planets, as well as with periods of the inactive Sun. Consequently, ahead of us is waiting for a period of inactive Sun and increased volcanism. But it is unlikely that this will lead to global climate warming. In the end, this relationship itself (solar inactivity - volcanic activity) tells us about the inconsistency of the theory of global warming: these two phenomena cannot contradict each other, especially since one is the cause of the other.

Greenhouse gas emissions

It is safe to say that it is this hypothesis in the debate about the most popular variant of the End of the World - global climate warming - occupies a leading position. It is literally on everyone's lips, regardless of the degree or in general its presence!

Gardeners are familiar with this physical phenomenon. Inside the greenhouse is always warmer than outside, and it helps to grow plants, especially in the cold season. Part of the solar heat received by the Earth’s surface cannot evaporate back into space, since the atmosphere acts like polyethylene in a greenhouse. Do not be greenhouse effect the average temperature of the Earth’s surface should be around –18 ° C, and in fact around + 14 ° C. How much heat remains on the planet is directly dependent on the composition of the air, which changes under the influence of such factors as volcanic eruptions, the behavior of the oceans (typhoons, hurricanes, etc.), solar activity, Earth's magnetic field, human activity. That is, the atmosphere changes the content of greenhouse gases, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes the most warming) and a number of others.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, compared with the beginning of the industrial revolution in the middle of the XVIII century. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory pipes and other sources of pollution created by mankind together emit about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Livestock, fertilizer use, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by mankind remain in the atmosphere. About three quarters of all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the last 20 years are caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the rest is caused by changes in the landscape, primarily deforestation.

This theory is supported by the fact that warming observed in winter is more significant than in summer, at night - than during the day, at high latitudes - than at medium and low, and the fact that the rapid heating of the troposphere takes place against a background that is not very fast cooling of the stratosphere layers.

The adherents of this hypothesis believe that if no drastic measures are taken, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere will double by 2025. Scientists who adhere to this view suggest that this will cause a significant (almost a meter) rise in sea level, an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, and sharp temperature fluctuations.

But it is important to understand that the greenhouse effect on Earth has always been. Without the greenhouse effect, due to the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the oceans would have froze long ago, and higher forms of life would not have appeared. But today, scientists agree that humanity is responsible for increasing the natural greenhouse effect by several degrees.

Although there are also quite a few opponents of this theory, despite the fact that it looks very plausible. For example, the appeal itself to real greenhouses is not convincing: greenhouses are covered with glass or film, and the greenhouse effect occurs in them not due to an increased concentration of carbon dioxide, but due to the complete internal reflection of the long-wave component of the spectrum from the covering surface.

Maxim Ogurtsov from the Physical Technical Institute named after A.F. Ioffe (RAS) remarks: “According to the hypothesis of the greenhouse effect, in the lower troposphere the temperature rise must be stronger than at the surface of the Earth — the air heats the surface, and not vice versa. However, over the past 30 years, the temperature on the surface of the earth has grown at an average of 0.18 ° C per decade, and the temperature in the lower troposphere measured by satellites, according to various sources, has increased by 0.12-0.18 ° C per decade. ” In addition, he doubts the fact that warming in the high-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere should be much stronger than at medium and low because of the so-called polar amplification, which is not actually observed. According to his forecast, in the first half of the 21st century, the average global temperature will not be higher than in the second half of the 20th century.

Again disputes, again an ambiguous situation. What to expect and what will come true? But at least this, to some extent, affects the industrial sphere. For example, in Great Britain they decided to accumulate carbon dioxide emitted by many enterprises at the bottom of the North Sea. It is known that after extracting minerals from the bottom, cavities are formed in their place, which will soon be filled with water (or - in the production process - with a special solution, displacing relatively light oil). Carbon dioxide, which so far is considered only as a hazardous waste of industry, will thus contribute to oil production. Although in Norway this solution has been used since 1996.

Apparently, only time will give us the right answer to the question of global warming. For now it is possible only to argue, guess and feel.

Although, judging by the erroneous forecasts (for example, a temperature increase of only 0.6 ° C, and not by 3.3 ° C, as predicted by the forecasters of the Kyoto Protocol), warming is out of the question. Therefore, only two variants of the development of events suggest themselves: either we stand on the threshold of the imminent Ice Age, or there is no global warming at all and we observe a natural course of events.

Fluctuations in temperature, solar and volcanic activity, the level of the oceans are all natural processes. Although still ahead is uncertain. But you can see what might happen, and what is observed now:

Scenarios for increasing global average temperature in XXI - XXII centuries

History and forecast of maximum solar activity units

World Ocean Level Fluctuations

Despite the significance of these fluctuations over the entire existence of the Earth, there is a clear tendency to an increase in the amount of water on our planet. In the past, the water level in the seas and oceans was significantly lower than in the modern period. According to the calculations of hydrologists, the volume of water on Earth annually increases by an average of 0.5 km 3. In the period 1900-1964, the level of the World Ocean rose by about 10 cm. With global warming, this process will accelerate further due to the melting of glaciers.

However, not all forecasts should be believed, for example, even if the “ice blanket at the North Pole” will melt - the sea level will not rise by a millimeter from this. This can be verified experimentally at home by pouring water to the edges of the glass with ice cubes. After the ice melts under the influence of room temperature - the water at the edges does not overflow.

And if you take Greenland, Antarctica, where the ice is not floating. Splitting and slipping of glaciers into the sea is a natural process. But melt the ice caps of these places can not. Because the average summer temperature in Greenland and Antarctica is about –15 ° C. Ice melts at a temperature of 0 ° С, and according to the most disastrous forecasts, the temperature as a result of global warming will rise by another 5 ° С, which of course cannot lead to melting: –15 ° С + 5 ° С = –10 ° С. In addition, Greenland is a mountainous country with a bizarre relief, the mountains at the edges are higher than in the middle. Even if it had melted, it would have been a lake.

But the "ice cover of the northern seas" does fall - by about 0.3-0.35% per year. So within 150-200 years there will be a complete destruction of the perennial ice. But what this will lead to is already described above.

It should be added that the global climate system is designed so that global warming at 0.6 ° C does not mean that everywhere the average temperature has risen by 0.6 ° C. Somewhere, like in Russia, for example, it went up by 6 ° C, and somewhere even went down a bit - like, for example, in Greenland.

After all this, the question still remains open: will there be global warming or global cooling? If warming - is it an environmental problem or the natural course of things? Apparently, mankind will receive answers to these questions only in the near future, when they see everything with their own eyes.

Other global environmental issues

We will not ... be too seduced by our victories over nature. For every such victory she takes revenge on us.

Friedrich Engels

Of course, the state of the environment depends on both natural and anthropogenic factors. And, in fact, it is the factors that influence it in the aggregate. But which one does nature more harm? In nature, everything is weighed, it is a very thin and “smart” organism ... or a system. Even Cicero wrote: "There is nothing more orderly than nature." Of course, eruptions, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes and other natural disasters - do not depend directly on the person and, often, take him by surprise. But the indirect influence of the human factor leads to long-term environmental problems, and natural disasters are already symptoms, signals! "All nature seeks self-preservation," Cicero asserted. So it turns out that a person, in this aspect, is like a virus for her, and she has to produce antibodies - to fight for survival, for her beauty, for her normal state.

What are the "sores" we bestow on Nature, and what are the possible consequences? ("Sores", of course, much more, but we will analyze the main ones).

Thinning of the ozone layer, ozone holes

The ozone “screen” is located in the stratosphere, at altitudes of 7–8 km at the poles, 17–18 km at the equator, and up to about 50 km above the earth’s surface. Ozone is thickest in the layer 22-24 km above the Earth. This is an amazingly thin layer that reliably protects us, almost completely absorbing dangerous ultraviolet rays. Without it, life would be preserved only in the depths of the waters (deeper than 10 m) and in those layers of the soil, where solar radiation does not penetrate. Ozone absorbs some of the Earth’s infrared radiation. Due to this, it delays about 20% of the radiation of our planet, increasing the warming effect of the atmosphere. This gas also regulates the rigidity of cosmic radiation: without it, it sharply increases, and, consequently, real changes in the plant and animal world occur.

Thus, the ozone film absorbs dangerous ultraviolet rays and protects all living on land from the harmful radiation. Moreover, if it were not for the ozone layer, then life would not have been able to get out of the oceans altogether and highly developed life forms like mammals would not have arisen. It is also proven that the absence or low concentration of ozone can or leads to cancer, which in the worst possible way affects humanity and its ability to reproduce.

Over the course of many years, the ozone layer has been found to undergo a small but constant weakening over certain regions of the globe, including densely populated areas in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. A vast "ozone hole" has been discovered over the Antarctic.

The destruction of ozone occurs due to exposure to ultraviolet radiation, cosmic rays, some gases: nitrogen compounds, chlorine and bromine, chlorofluorocarbons (freons). But the most disturbing thing is ozone-depleting human activity. Therefore, many countries have signed an international agreement providing for a reduction in the production of ozone-depleting substances.

In general, there are many reasons for the weakening of the ozone shield.

First, the launch of space rockets. Burning fuel "burns" large holes in the ozone layer. Once it was assumed that these "holes" are being tightened. It turned out they exist for quite some time.

Secondly, airplanes. Especially, flying at altitudes of 12-15 km. The steam and other substances they emit destroy ozone. Although the aircraft flying below 12 km, give an increase of this gas. In cities, it is one of the components of photochemical smog.

Thirdly, nitrogen oxides. They are thrown away by the same aircraft, but most of all they are emitted from the surface of the soil, especially during the decomposition of nitrogen fertilizers.

Fourthly, it is chlorine and its compounds with oxygen. A huge amount (up to 700 thousand tons) of this gas enters the atmosphere, primarily from the decomposition of freons. Freons are gases that boil at room temperature and do not drastically increase their volume, which makes them good sprayers. Since their expansion lowers their temperature, freons are widely used in the refrigeration industry.

Every year the amount of freon in the Earth’s atmosphere increases by 8-9%. They gradually rise to the stratosphere, and under the influence of sunlight become active - enter into photochemical reactions, emitting atomic chlorine. Each particle of chlorine can destroy hundreds and thousands of ozone molecules.

But, as with the theory of global warming, this problem is also not all clear. Take into account at least the fact that the “ozone hole” observed over the Antarctic, observed since the end of the last century, again suggests an idea of a natural process, simply accelerated human activities. But, anyway, since 1987, according to the Montreal Protocol, the production of aerosol packaging, refrigerators, air conditioners using chlorofluorocarbons (in particular, freon) was discontinued.

Well, now the cries of the “ozone catastrophe” have subsided, which means we are moving in the right direction. Although, there are already other warnings that the impending (imminent?) Global warming will again destroy the ozone layer, and more radical measures will have to be taken to solve this problem.

Depletion of natural resources

This is already a problem, so to speak, visual. Here there is a direct influence of the anthropogenic factor. And there are no disputes over whether our natural “energy wealth” is being depleted or not being depleted - no. Man has always consumed natural resources, and only in the XIX-XX centuries he began to consume them in enormous quantities. Rapidly thriving technologies, the developing industry demanded “food”, and we got this “food”.

And now we have a problem - resources are left a little and not for long.

Against the background of the depletion of natural fuel reserves throughout the world, more and more attention is paid to energy savings (by constantly replacing some resources with others, some substances with others, etc.). Well, and, of course, the search for new sources of energy.

One of the most promising projects is hydrogen fuel. He has a lot of hope. It is collected from metal hydride deposits. True, it lies quite deeply (hundreds of kilometers). But there are several (including in Russia) rifting zones on the earth, where the earth's crust is thinner and silicon-magnesium-ferruginous layers come quite close to the surface - 30-40 km. It is in these zones that there are places where metals in individual languages reach almost to the surface itself and lie at depths of only 4-6 km. And hydrogen can be produced by making several wells - supply water one at a time, pump hydrogen from the other. This fossil is enough for humanity for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. "And we will save oil for drugs, the production of plastics and motor oils."

Air pollution

Every day, our industry and automobiles spew out a huge amount of harmful substances. These substances in one way or another affect the climate, the ecological situation in the city, country, world.

One of the reasons why air pollution causes widespread concern is toxic particles and dust that enter the body through inhalation and can cause various diseases. For example:

As (arsenic). Sources of atmospheric emissions: coal and oil furnaces, glass production. Causes vegetative destruction nervous system, paralysis of the circulatory system, metabolic disorders. Exposure over a long period of time can lead to lung and skin cancer.

WITH (carbon monoxide). Sources of atmospheric emissions: road transport, combustion of coal and oil, steelmaking. Causes suffocation, affects the cardiovascular system, disrupts the circulatory system.

Pb (lead). Sources of emissions: motor vehicle emissions, steelmaking. It affects the brain, causes high blood pressure, slows growth.

SO 2 (sulfur dioxide). Sources of emissions: combustion of oil and coal, steelmaking. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain. Lowers resistance to respiratory diseases, irritates the mucous eyes.

And this list can be continued. And what is being done to protect our air basin?

A whole technology of protecting the atmosphere from pollution has been developed. Following this technology, the following methods are used for gas cleaning:

- adsorption, i.e. absorption by the solid of the gas component. As adsorbents (sinks), active carbons of various grades, zeolites, silica gel and other substances are used.

- absorption, that is, the absorption of gases by the liquid. This method is based either on the process of dissolving gas components in a liquid (physical absorption), or on dissolving together with a chemical reaction — chemical absorption (for example, absorption of an acid gas by a solution with an alkaline reaction).

- thermal methods - are destructive. With sufficient calorific value of the exhaust gas, it can be burned directly, catalytic oxidation can be used, or it can be used as a blast gas in furnaces. The resulting thermal decomposition components must be less hazardous to the environment than the original component.

- various chemical purification methods, usually associated with the use of catalysts.

Pollution of the hydrosphere

The danger of water pollution is that a person largely consists of water and it must consume water, which in most cities on the planet can hardly be called potable. About half of the population in developing countries does not have access to clean water sources, is forced to drink infected with pathogenic microbes and is therefore doomed to premature death from epidemic diseases.

Sea water also ceases to be water: many coasts are washed by a liquid with a completely different chemical composition than that which sea water had several decades ago. Symptoms of degradation of the flora and fauna of the oceans have been noticed by researchers at great depth, even far from the coasts. But the World Ocean is the cradle of life and the “weather factory” on the whole Earth. If we continue to pollute it further, it will soon lead to the impossibility of the existence of life on our planet.

Pollution occurs primarily as a result of dumping industrial, agricultural and household wastewater into rivers, lakes and seas. According to the calculations of scientists, at the end of the 20th century, it may take 25 thousand km of fresh water to dilute wastewater, or practically all of the available resources of such a drain!

Among the heavily polluted are many rivers - the Rhine, Danube, Seine, Ohio, Volga, Dnieper, Dniester and others. The pollution of the world's oceans is growing, while the inland seas are the most polluted - the Mediterranean, Northern, Baltic, Inner Japan, Javanese, and the Biscay, Persian and Mexican bays.

To prevent further pollution of natural waters, continue to issue new regulations, decrees, laws prohibiting enterprises to dump waste in certain water basins, or not to dump them there at all. On the territory of Russia at the moment, the Water Code of the Russian Federation.

Also used and water purification methods. For example, sewage sewage is a complex of engineering structures and sanitary measures that ensure the collection and disposal of polluted sewage outside residential areas and industrial enterprises, their purification, decontamination and disinfection. Apply mechanical and biological cleaning; removal of suspended coarse and fine (solid and liquid) impurities from industrial wastewater.

In terms of protecting the hydrosphere of the country - state monitoring of water bodies is carried out:

- regular monitoring of the state of water bodies, quantitative and qualitative indicators of surface and groundwater;

- collection, storage, replenishment and processing of observations;

- the creation and maintenance of a data bank;

- assessment and forecasting of changes in the state of water bodies, quantitative indicators of surface and groundwater.

Conclusion

Human nature is greedy for novelty.

Pliny the Elder

Nature will always take its toll.

William Shakespeare

The possibilities of human influence on nature are constantly growing and have already reached a level where it is possible to cause irreparable damage to the biosphere. It is not the first time when a substance that has long been considered completely harmless turns out to be in fact extremely dangerous for the environment.

Currently, the entire territory of our planet is subject to various anthropogenic influences. The whole biosphere is under increasing pressure from human activity. Environmental protection activities are becoming an urgent task.

And, although, as we have seen, some problems are ambiguous, humanity has no right to disclaim responsibility for the environmental situation in the world. Research continues to be carried out, protection continues to be improved.

And we can only hope that we are on the path of correcting our mistakes, rather than exacerbating the situation, and rely on the help of Nature.

Bibliography

1. Nikonov A.P. / History of frostbitten in the context of global warming. - M .: Publishing House NTS ENAS, 2007

2. Nikonov A.P. Monkey upgrade. A big story of a small singularity. - M .: Publishing House NTS ENAS, 2005

3. Simonov V.A. Apocalypse will come tomorrow. - M .: OLMA-PRESS Star World, 2006

4. http://greenworld.ru/ - Daily Internet Journal on Ecology and the Environment

5. http://elementy.ru/ - Scientific Internet portal

Introduction

1. Causes of climate change

2. The concept and essence of the greenhouse effect

3. Global warming and human exposure

4. Consequences of global warming

5. Measures necessary to prevent global warming

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for this, experts say. But many factors affecting climate change have not yet been studied, while others have not been studied at all.

Some of the arid places in Africa have become even drier over the past 25 years. Rare lakes that bring water to people dry up. Sandy winds are intensifying. The rains stopped there in the 1970s. The problem of drinking water is becoming more acute. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.

Coal mining is spread all over the planet. A huge amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2) is emitted into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of their industrial neighbors, the amount of CO 2 will double during the 21st century.

Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth’s climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate change with an increase in CO 2 in atmospheric air.

Life thrives on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate fluctuations were radical, from the ice age - which lasted 10,000 years - to the era of rapid warming. With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms have changed, developed and survived. Others have weakened or simply become extinct.

Now, many experts believe that humanity is endangering the global ecological system due to global warming caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. Evaporation of civilization products in the form of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2), retained enough heat reflected from the earth's surface so that the average temperature at the earth's surface increased by half a degree Celsius during the twentieth century. If this direction of the modern industry continues, the climate system will change everywhere - melting ice, raising sea levels, destroying plants by droughts, turning areas into deserts, moving green areas.

But this may not be. Climate on the planet depends on a combination of many factors interacting separately with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is possible that the warming observed during the last century was due to natural fluctuations, despite the fact that its speeds were much higher than those observed during the last ten centuries. Moreover, computer simulations may not be accurate.

However, in 1995, after long years of intensive study, the International Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that “many proofs show that humanity’s influence on global climate are huge. " The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since the key factor, including the degree of the impact of clouds and oceans on the change in global temperature, is not determined. It may take a decade or more to investigate these uncertainties.

The purpose of this work is to study the problem of climate change on Earth.

The objectives of this work:

1. to study the causes of climate change;

2. to consider the concept and essence of the greenhouse effect;

3. to define the concept of “global warming” and show the influence of humanity on it;

4. show the consequences awaiting humanity as a result of global warming; 5. Consider the measures needed to prevent global warming.

1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What is global climate change and why is it often called “global warming”?

It is impossible to disagree with the fact that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem for all mankind. Fact global change climate is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet around this topic are ongoing discussions. Some use the term "global warming" and make apocalyptic predictions. Others predict the onset of a new “ice age” - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change natural, and evidence from both sides about the inevitability of the catastrophic effects of climate change - controversial ... Try to figure it out ...

What evidence is there of climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is noticeable without instruments): an increase in global average temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting of glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and increasingly destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia ... (see also “5 prophecies about climate that have come true”). And in some places, for example, in the Antarctic, a cooling is observed.

If the climate has changed before, why has it become a problem now?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about the glacial periods (they are small and large), with the global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that, to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been added, another factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), whose influence on climate change, according to a number of researchers, is becoming stronger with each passing year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driving force of climate is the sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth’s surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

In addition, the climate is influenced by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. These are all natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, have defined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climate cycles, such as glacial periods. Solar and volcanic activity can be attributed to half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity - to a decrease).

Recently, another one has been added to the natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increased greenhouse effect, whose influence on climate change over the past two centuries is 8 times higher than the effect of changes in solar activity.

2. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT

The greenhouse effect is the delay of the planet’s thermal radiation by the Earth’s atmosphere. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses, the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed on the scale of the Earth: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the Earth’s surface, but the thermal energy emitted by the Earth cannot escape back into space, as the Earth’s atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth’s surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, which have the ability to trap long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.

Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain, due to the greenhouse effect, the heat balance of the Earth at a level suitable for life. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if its average temperature of the Earth’s surface were 30 ° C lower, i.e. not + 14 ° С, as it is now, but -17 ° С.

The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten neither the Earth nor humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe it to life.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and disruption of the thermal balance of the Earth. That is what happened in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory pipes and other sources of pollution created by mankind emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere per year.

What gases are called "greenhouse"?

The most famous and common greenhouse gases are water vapor (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed in the process of burning fossil fuels.

In addition, there are two more groups of direct-acting greenhouse gases, this halocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Their emissions to the atmosphere are associated with modern technology and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration equipment). Their amount in the atmosphere is completely insignificant, but they have an impact on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential / GWP), tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2.

Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been noted. However, an increase in the temperature of the Earth, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and - to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the flow of energy to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide is the most famous of greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO2 are volcanic emissions, the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources are the burning of fossil fuels (including forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, the production of cement, glass). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the "greenhouse effect". The CO 2 concentration over two centuries of industrialization has increased by more than 30% and is correlated with a change in global average temperature.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. It is released due to leaks in the development of coal and natural gas deposits, from pipelines, during biomass burning, in landfills (as an integral part of biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice growing), etc. Livestock, fertilizer use, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect or global warming potential (GWP) is 21 times stronger than that of CO 2.

Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its effect is 310 times stronger than that of CO 2, but it is contained in very small amounts in the atmosphere. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as during the production and use of mineral fertilizers and the work of chemical industry enterprises.

Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. Used mainly in refrigeration equipment. They have extremely high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (emission into the environment) are small, but they increase rapidly.

Sulfur hexafluoride - its release into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, but the volume is constantly increasing. Global warming potential is 23900 units.

3. GLOBAL WARMING AND IMPACT ON HUMAN

Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, caused by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

According to direct climatic observations (changes in temperature over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for this increase are still the subject of debate, but one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the planet’s natural heat balance, enhances the greenhouse effect, and as a result, causes global warming.

This process is slow and gradual. So, over the past 100 years, the average temperature The land has increased by only 1 o C. It would seem a little. What, then, is causing global concern and forcing many governments to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Firstly, this was enough to cause the melting of polar ice and the rise in sea level, with all the ensuing consequences.

And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the melting of permafrost subarctic, huge amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to the melting of the ice will cause a change in the warm current of the Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger changes that, in turn, will accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction ...

How strong is the human impact on global warming?

The idea of a significant contribution of mankind to the greenhouse effect (and hence to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.

Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere from the pre-industrial period (since 1750) increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it did not reach such a level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly associated with an increase in fuel consumption and industrial development. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide with the graph of growth of temperature.

Others object: carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the oceans 50-60 times more than in the atmosphere. In comparison, the impact of a person is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensates for human exposure.

Recently, however, more and more facts appear in favor of the influence of human activity on global climate change. Here are some of them.

1. The southern part of the world ocean has lost its ability to absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet.

2. the flow of heat coming to the Earth from the Sun has been decreasing in the last five years, but there is not a cooling on the earth, but warming ...

How much will the temperature rise?

According to some climate change scenarios, by 2100 the average global temperature may rise by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius - if no steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, periods of hot weather can become longer and more extreme in temperature. At the same time, the development of the situation will vary greatly depending on the region of the Earth, and it is extremely difficult to predict these differences. For example, for Europe they predict at first a not very long period of cooling in connection with a slowdown and a possible change in the course of the Gulf Stream.

4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitat, as the polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear, failing to adapt to a rapidly changing habitat. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on earth.

Global warming will change the climate globally. The number of climatic cataclysms is expected to increase, flooding due to hurricanes, desertification and reduction of summer precipitation by 15–20% in major agricultural areas, rising ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural areas are expected to move to the north.

Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of a small ice age. In the 19th century, the eruption of volcanoes was the cause of such a cooling down; in our century, another cause was the desalination of the ocean as a result of the melting of glaciers.

How will global warming affect a person?

In the short term: a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.

The most serious blow may be inflicted on the poorest countries, which are the least responsible for exacerbating this problem, and who are least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the work of previous generations.

Destruction of established and customary farming systems under the influence of droughts, irregular precipitation, etc. can really put on the brink of hunger about 600 million people. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to the melting of glaciers and changes in the nature of precipitation, an environmental crisis may occur.

An increase in temperature of 1.5-4.5 ° C will lead to an increase in the ocean level of 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the flooding of many small islands and coastal flooding. In areas prone to flooding, there will be about 100 million inhabitants, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people may be threatened as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to a violation of plumbing systems), etc.

In the long run, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when, after the ice age, the temperature rose sharply by 10 ° C, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

Experts do not have accurate data on the contribution of mankind to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what a chain reaction can be.

The exact relationship between the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature is also unknown. This is one of the reasons why the forecasts of temperature changes differ so much. And it gives food to skeptics: some scientists find the problem of global warming somewhat exaggerated, as is the data on the rise in average temperature on Earth.

Scientists have no consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change could be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

Some scientists believe that some factors may weaken the effect of global warming: with increasing temperatures, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are underestimated:

· Droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will occur more often,

· An increase in the temperature of the world’s ocean also causes an increase in the force of hurricanes,

· The speed of melting glaciers and rising sea levels will also be faster ... And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

· Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the melting rate of glaciers has increased 3 times (the ice cover thickness has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of non-flowing ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).

· It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete extinction, which can result in several times higher sea level rise (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

· Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the oceans.

· And finally, we must not forget that after global warming there may be a global cooling.

However, whatever the scenario, everything speaks for the fact that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It is better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. He who is warned is armed.

5. MEASURES NECESSARY TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING

The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development agreed to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).

In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from the 1990 level by 2008–2012, including the European Union should reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. It is enough for Russia and Ukraine that their emissions do not exceed the level of 1990, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2.

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it is necessary that it be ratified by the states, which account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. Today, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries of the world (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. The United States and Australia, which made a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol, were a notable exception.

In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.

Here are some of them:

1. Reduce the burning of fossil fuels

Today, we get 80% of our energy from fossil fuels, the burning of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.

2. Increase the use of renewable energy sources.

Solar and wind energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of mankind.

3. Stop the destruction of ecosystems!

Any attacks on intact ecosystems should be stopped. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are important element in maintaining a CO 2 balance. The forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at a catastrophic rate.

4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation.

The transition from large-scale energy (hydro, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over a long distance, up to 50% of energy can be lost on the way!

5. Use new energy efficient technologies in industry

Currently, the efficiency of most of the technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy efficient production technologies.

6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sector.

Regulations must be adopted that prescribe the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce the energy consumption in houses several times.

7. New laws and incentives.

Laws should be enacted that impose higher taxes on enterprises that exceed the limits for CO2 emissions and provide tax concessions to energy producers from renewable sources and energy-efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these technologies and industries.

8. New ways to move

Today, in large cities, motor vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. It is necessary to encourage the use of new environmentally friendly modes of transport, to support public transport, to develop infrastructure for cyclists.

9. Promote and stimulate energy saving and careful use of natural resources by the inhabitants of all countries.

These measures will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by developing countries by 30% by 2030.

H ACCESS

Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect is becoming more and more acute. The climate in the world requires urgent action. Proof of this can serve some of the effects of the greenhouse effect, manifested today.

The lazy areas become even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, are becoming more frequent. Overflowing rivers flood coastal settlements, forcing residents to leave their homes, saving their lives.

Intensive rains occurred in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, the damage was estimated at 400 million dollars. Such continuous precipitation becomes more intense and is caused by global warming. Warm air may contain more moisture, and in the atmosphere of Europe there is already much more moisture than it was 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say that areas prone to flooding should be preparing for new disasters.

In contrast, dry areas have become even more arid. There are droughts so intense in the world that have not been observed for 69 years. Drought destroys corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which usually reaches two meters or more, grew only to the waist of a man.

However, despite these natural warnings, mankind is not taking measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. If humanity continues to behave so irresponsibly in relation to its planet, it is not known what other disasters this will turn into.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Barlund K., Klein G. "Medieval" diseases of modern Europe. - M. 2003. - 199 pp .;

2. Bobylev S.N., Gritsevich I.G. Global climate change and economic development. - M .: UNEP, 2005. - 64 p .;

3. Drozdov, OA, Arapov, PP, Lugin, KM, Mosolova, G.I. About the features of the climate during the warming of the last centuries // Proc. report Vseross scientific conf. Kazan 2000. p. 24-26;

4. Kondratyev K.Ya. Global changes at the turn of the millennium // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2000. pp. 29-37;

5. Lavrov S.B. Global problems of our time. - SPb .: Prospect, 2000. - 341 p .;

6. Losev K.S., Gorshkov V.G., Kondratiev K.Ya. Problems of ecology of Russia - Moscow: VINITI, 2001. - 247 p .;

7. Mazurov G.I., Vishnyakova T.V., Akselevich V.I. Does the Earth's climate change? // Materials Intern. scientific and practical conf. Permian. 2002. pp. 57-60;

8. Order of J. Global Ecology. - M .: Mir, 1999 - 377 p.

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Home\u003e Coursework\u003e Ecology

MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND EDUCATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

KAZAKH ECONOMIC UNIVERSITY IM. T. Ryskulova

FACULTY "MANAGEMENT"

DEPARTMENT "ECONOMICS OF NATURE MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION"

COURSE WORK

Topic: “Global Warming Climate Issues”

Completed student Kenzhebekov K.T.

Faculty of Management

122 group 1 course

Date of submission to the department ______________

Date of protection of the work ______________

Coursework evaluation ________

Almaty 2007

1. Introduction

The essence of the greenhouse effect

2.3. The causes of global warming

2.4.The problem of carbon dioxide

3. Consequences of the greenhouse effect

3.1. Forecasts of various scientists on the greenhouse effect

on the state of the Earth's climate

4.3. Atmosphere protection

4.5. Kyoto Protocol

5. Conclusion

6. List of used literature

1. Introduction

Ecological problem - the problem of the relationship between society and nature, the preservation of the environment. For millennia, man constantly increased his technical capabilities, intensified interference with nature, forgetting about the need to maintain biological balance in it.

The load on the environment increased especially sharply in the second half of the 20th century. In the relationship between society and nature, there was a qualitative leap, when as a result of a sharp increase in population, intensive industrialization and urbanization of our planet, the economic burden began to everywhere exceed the ability of ecological systems to self-purification and regeneration. As a result, the natural cycle of substances in the biosphere was disrupted, and the health of present and future generations of people was threatened.

The environmental problems of the modern world are not only acute, but also multifaceted. It appears in almost all sectors of material production, and is related to all regions of the planet. At all stages of his development, man was closely associated with the outside world. But since the emergence of a highly industrial society, the dangerous human intervention in nature has increased dramatically, the scope of this intervention has expanded, it has become more diverse and is now threatening to become a global danger to humanity. The consumption of non-renewable types of raw materials is increasing, more and more arable lands are leaving the economy, as cities and factories are built on them. Man has to intervene more and more in the economy of the biosphere - that part of our planet in which life exists. The biosphere of the Earth is currently undergoing increasing anthropogenic pressure. At the same time, there are several most significant processes, any of which does not improve the ecological situation on the planet.

The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for this, experts say. But many factors affecting climate change have not yet been studied, while others have not been studied at all.

Some of the arid places in Africa have become even drier over the past 25 years. Rare lakes that bring water to people dry up. Sandy winds are intensifying. The rains stopped there yet

in the 1970s. The problem of drinking water is becoming more acute. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.

Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth’s climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate change with an increase in CO 2 in atmospheric air.

However, in 1995, after long years of intensive study, the International Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that "many proofs show that the influence of humanity on the global climate is enormous." The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since the key factor, including the degree of the impact of clouds and oceans on the change in global temperature, is not determined. It may take a decade or more to investigate these uncertainties.

In the meantime, much is already known. And although the specifics of the circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the atmosphere is undeniable. The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is one of the main causes of the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide acts in the atmosphere like glass in a greenhouse: it transmits solar radiation and does not transmit the Earth's infrared (thermal) radiation back into space. The content of greenhouse gases - CO 2, methane, etc. - is steadily increasing. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acts as a powerful absorber of terrestrial radiation, which would otherwise be scattered in outer space. By absorbing and releasing this radiation energy, carbon dioxide makes the atmosphere warmer than it would otherwise be.

Photosynthesis helps reduce carbon dioxide. Plants absorb CO2 from the air and build their biomass from it. All land vegetation absorbs from the atmosphere about 20-30 billion tons of carbon in the form of its dioxide. One square meter of rainforest extracts 1-2 kg of carbon from the air. About 40 billion tons of carbon is absorbed per year by microscopic algae floating in the ocean.

However, the vegetation of the Earth is not able to cope with increasing pollution of the atmosphere, which leads to climate change. Compared with the pre-industrial era, carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere increased by 28%. If you do not take measures to reduce emissions, by the middle of the XXI century, the average global temperature of the surface atmosphere will increase by 1.5 - 4.5 0 C.

This will lead to a redistribution of precipitation, an increase in the number of droughts, and the regime of river flow will change. The top layer of permafrost will melt. The level of the World Ocean may rise by 20 cm by 2030. An analysis of the dynamics of climatic data showed that in the 1980s - early 1990s. the average annual temperatures in the northern half of the East European Plain increased due to warm winters, the contingency of the areas of maximum variability of climatic characteristics with the geographical distribution of atmospheric pollution was noted.

As a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the climate is changing, which leads to negative consequences in almost all areas of human activity. In the permafrost zone as a result of the melting of ice as the climate warms, the economic infrastructure will be destroyed, the mining industry, transport and energy systems, and the municipal economy will be damaged. Rising levels of the oceans will lead to flooding of the coastal zone, populated areas will be flooded, forestry, living and flora will suffer. Climate change will affect human health, possibly spreading many types of diseases.

The introduction of new technologies will reduce the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, help create alternative raw materials for the synthesis of organic substances, and thus solve important environmental problems.

2. The essence of the greenhouse effect

2.1. The current state of the environment

Modern humanity lives in an era of unprecedented development of scientific and technological progress, accompanied by an active impact on the natural environment. And although in recent decades, measures have been taken to protect and improve it, nevertheless, the general state of the environment continues to deteriorate.
The scale of the impact of economic activity on the natural environment has become truly gigantic. Receipt of land and ocean into the waters, the atmosphere and the soils of various chemical compounds (and there are about 100,000 of them) resulting from human production, is tens of times greater than the natural flow of substances during weathering of rocks and volcanism. Every year, more than 100 billion tons of mineral resources are extracted from the bowels of the Earth, 800 million tons of various metals are smelted, more than 60 million tons of synthetic materials unknown in nature are produced, over 500 million tons of mineral fertilizers and approximately 3 million of mineral fertilizers are applied to soil. tons of various toxic chemicals, 1/3 of which will be washed away by surface drains into water bodies or retained in the atmosphere (when dispersed from airplanes). The amount of iron entering anthropogenically into the natural environment has amounted to about 6.5 billion tons over the past 150 years, and the possible consequences of the "ironification" of the earth's crust are not yet known. Lead and cadmium - elements with high toxic properties increased by an order of magnitude.
Humanity uses for irrigation, industrial production, domestic supply more than 13% of river flow and discharges more than 500 billion m3 of industrial and municipal sewage into water bodies annually. Their neutralization requires (depending on the degree of purification) 5-12-fold dilution of natural pure water. Not less than twice the solid runoff into the ocean, which is now 17.4 billion tons per year, has increased. Only in reservoirs, the accumulation of land erosion products is 13.4 billion tons per year. In general, under the influence of the anthropogenic factor, the drift from the land has increased by about 2.5 times and amounts to 50 billion tons of the substance in solid, liquid and gaseous forms annually.
As a result of fuel combustion, more than 20 billion tons of carbon dioxide and more than 70 million tons of other steam and gas compounds and solid particles enter the atmosphere annually. Excess sulfur in the environment and pollution by sulfur compounds in the air and surface waters are becoming a serious problem. At present, the technogenic supply of sulfur is 7 times higher than that of natural processes; when burning low grades of coal and fuel oil, 150 million tons of sulfur dioxide is released into the atmosphere per year. It is known that in humid air SO2 forms sulfuric acid, which, together with rains, falls to the ground. When metal dust or metals dissolved in water get into the air and soil, even more toxic salts of sulfuric acid are formed, which kill all life. Especially dangerous salts of cadmium, mercury, lead.
When analyzing environmental pollution, one should take into account not only direct pollution as a result of losses of raw materials and industrial by-products, which range from 2 to 33%, but also dispersion of a substance in the process of using finished products due to its corrosion, wear, mechanical abrasion, etc. .
And since the energy capacity in the world doubles every 12 years and the volume of industrial output every 15 years, we should expect that by the year 2000 the industrial load on the environment will increase by 2.5-3 times, even taking into account the cleaning measures that while not effective enough. By his activity, man not only violates the geochemical circulation, but also has a significant impact on the energy balance in nature. It frees the energy of photosynthesis, accumulated in deposits of combustible minerals, intensively uses hydropower, and recently the energy of the atom and the sun. In areas of the globe with a high concentration of population and industrial production, the scale of the energy produced by man has become commensurate with the energy of the radiation balance and have a noticeable effect on the change in the parameters of the microclimate. There are areas with noticeable thermal pollution, which show a tendency to expand. The increase in heat input to the atmosphere can have not only local but also global environmental consequences.

The increased anthropogenic impact on the environment has created a number of environmental problems, of which the most acute are related to the state of atmospheric air, water and land resources. Compared to other components of the geosphere, the atmosphere has a number of features peculiar only to it - high mobility, variability of its constituent elements, peculiarity of molecular reactions, in which inert gases can participate. The state of the atmosphere determines the thermal regime of the Earth’s surface; the ozone screen protects our planet from excessive ultraviolet radiation. The ratio of heat and moisture in the atmosphere is the main reason for the existence of geographic zones on the Earth, which determine the characteristics of the regime of rivers, land cover and important relief formation processes.
A person can not only directly, but also indirectly influence the atmosphere and the processes occurring in it. Particularly strong indirect effects of economic activity on the local climate and the climate of entire areas are deforestation, plowing of vast territories, interbasin water transfers, extensive reclamation work (irrigation, drainage), mining, fossil fuel combustion, military actions, etc.
According to scientists, the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere decreases by more than 10 million tons annually. If it continues to be spent in such sizes, then two thirds of the total amount of free oxygen of the atmosphere and hydrosphere will be exhausted in a little over 100 thousand years. Accordingly, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach excessive concentrations. Therefore, one of the most important results, attracting the attention of scientists and widely discussed in the literature, is an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. At the same time, its absorption through photosynthesis by ocean waters, limestone and caustobioliths is increasing. There are calculations that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase the average planetary temperature by 1.5-2 degrees as a result of the "greenhouse effect". It should be noted that in the last 70 years there has indeed been an increase in the level of the World Ocean by an average of 1.5 mm per year. It is believed that one of the reasons for this is the melting of glaciers due to climate warming. The rapid melting of glaciers can lead to a strong restructuring of the entire natural environment. Thus, it is possible to raise the level of the oceans by 5 m, flooding lowlands and, therefore, the need to resettle almost a billion people.
Thus, the change in natural conditions is a powerful factor affecting the life of society, and they must be taken into account in global forecasting, especially for a long time. It is also assumed that the increase in the frequency of droughts, especially in the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, is evidence of warming. At the same time, any abrupt change in climatic conditions over large areas will be equivalent to a true ecological catastrophe. It is believed that the flooding of the continental margins and the change in their hydrography will also affect the underground "hydrosphere". The response may be a change in the mode of movement of the earth’s crust on the continents. It is assumed that the 21st century may turn out to be a time of planetary anthropogenic activation of seismic processes, and possibly other manifestations of the internal forces of the Earth.
Currently, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 0.032% (in cities - 0.034%). Doctors say that for human health the concentration of CO 2 in the air is harmless to the level of 1%, i.e. humanity still has enough time to solve this problem. In addition, it should be emphasized that many predictions of the impact of CO 2 on the environment are controversial. This controversy occurs because the models on the basis of which appropriate predictions are made are still far from perfect. Very detailed and detailed research is needed.

Here are some numbers and facts confirming global warming, climate change on planet earth:

from 2002 to 2005, due to the melting of only the Antarctic shelf, the level of the World Ocean increased by 1.5 mm;

from 1996 to 2005, the melting of ice in Greenland doubled;
total water level increase is about 3 mm per year;

from the pre-industrial period of the mid-eighteenth century, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, about half of the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere fell on the period after 1965.

2.2. The essence of the greenhouse effect.

The air we breathe is a necessary condition for our life in many aspects. Without our atmosphere, the average temperature on Earth would be about –18 ° C instead of today's 15 ° C. All the sunlight coming to Earth (about 180 W / m 2) causes the Earth to emit infrared waves like a giant radiator. The reflected heat simply would easily return to space. Because of the atmosphere, only part of this heat directly returns to space. The remaining is retained in the lower layers of the atmosphere, which contain a number of gases — water vapor, CO 2, methane, and others — that collect outgoing infrared radiation. As soon as these gases heat up, some heat accumulated by them re-enters the earth's surface. In general, this process is called the greenhouse effect, the main cause of which is the excessive content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The more greenhouse gases will be contained in the atmosphere, the more heat reflected by the earth’s surface will be retained. Since greenhouse gases do not impede the entry of solar energy, the temperature at the earth’s surface will increase.

With increasing temperature, evaporation of water from oceans, lakes, rivers, etc. will increase. Since heated air may contain a larger volume of water vapor, this creates a powerful feedback effect: the warmer it becomes, the higher the water vapor content in the air, and this, in turn, increases the greenhouse effect.

Human activity has little effect on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. But we emit other greenhouse gases, which makes the greenhouse effect more and more intense. Scientists believe that the increase in CO 2 emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, explains at least about 60% of the warming on Earth seen since 1850. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases by about 0.3% per year, and is now about 30% higher than before the industrial revolution. If this is expressed in absolute terms, then each year humanity adds about 7 billion tons. Despite the fact that this is a small part of the total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - 750 billion tons, and even smaller compared to the amount of CO 2 contained in the oceans - about 35 trillion tons, it remains very significant. The reason: natural processes are in equilibrium, such a volume of CO 2 enters the atmosphere, which is removed from there. And human activity only adds CO 2.

Methane, the main component of natural gas, is the cause of 15% of warming in modern times. Generated by bacteria in rice fields, decaying garbage, agricultural products and fossil fuels, methane has been circulating in the atmosphere for about a decade. Now it is 2.5 times more in the atmosphere than in the 18th century.

Another greenhouse gas is nitrogen oxide, produced by both agriculture and industry - various solvents and coolants, like chlorofluorocarbons (freons), which are prohibited by international agreement due to their destructive effect on the protective ozone layer of the Earth.

The relentless accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere led scientists to decide that in this century the average temperature will increase from 1 to 3.5 0 C. For many, this may seem a bit. For explanation, we give an example. The abnormal cold snap in Europe, which lasted from 1570 to 1730, which forced European farmers to abandon their fields, was caused by a temperature change of only half a degree Celsius. It is possible to imagine what consequences a temperature rise of 3.5 ° C can have.

2.3. Causes of Global Warming

The "greenhouse effect" did not appear today - it has existed since our planet acquired the atmosphere, and without it the temperature of the surface layers of this atmosphere would be on average thirty degrees lower than actually observed. However, in the last century and a half, the content of some "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere has greatly increased: carbon dioxide - by more than a third, methane - by 2.5 times. New, previously simply non-existent substances with a "greenhouse" absorption spectrum appeared - primarily chlorine and fluorine hydrocarbons, including the notorious freons. The conclusion about the connection between these two processes suggests itself. Moreover, the reason for the rapid growth in the number of "greenhouse" gases is also not long to search for - our entire civilization, from the fires of primitive hunters to modern gas stoves and cars, is based on the rapid oxidation of carbon compounds, the final product of which is CO2. An increase in the methane content (rice fields, livestock, leaks from wells and gas pipelines) and nitrogen oxides, not to mention chlorine organic, is also associated with human activity. Perhaps, only on the content of water vapor in the atmosphere a person does not yet have a noticeable direct effect.

Even in the time of Peter in Europe it was much colder. It was the peak of the so-called Small Ice Age, one of several periods of cooling in historical times. At that time, and the Thames in London froze. Gradually from the scientific and technological revolution from the time of Peter the Great until the end of the nineteenth century, and especially in the twentieth century, the development of scientific and technological progress led to an increase in annual temperature of 1 degree Celsius.

And in the last quarter of the twentieth century. a sharp global warming has begun, which in the boreal regions is affected by a decrease in the number of frosty winters. The average temperature of the surface air layer over the past 25 years has increased by 0.7 ° C. In the equatorial zone, it has not changed, but the closer to the poles, the more noticeable the warming. The temperature of the under-ice water near the North Pole increased by almost two degrees, as a result of which the ice began to melt from below. The problem of global warming was first expressed in the hypothesis by the Swedish scientist Svante Areinius in the late 19th century. It is possible that this warming is partly of a natural nature. After all, even A.I. Voikov and V.I. Vernadsky emphasized that we live at the end of the last ice age and are only emerging from it. However, the rate of warming makes us recognize the role of the anthropogenic factor in this phenomenon. As early as 1927, in "Outlines of Geochemistry", Vernadsky wrote that burning large quantities of coal should lead to a change in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and climate. In 1972, calculations were confirmed by MI. Budyko. Now mankind burns annually 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.2 billion tons of oil and oil products, as well as natural gas, peat, oil shale and firewood. All this turns into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere has increased from 0.031% in 1956 to 0.035% in 1992 and continues to grow. In addition, emissions of another greenhouse gas, methane, have sharply increased. Now the majority of world climatologists recognize the role of the anthropogenic factor in climate warming.

This warming caused a great stir after the appearance in 1986 of the book Our Common Future, prepared by the UN Commission headed by the then Prime Minister of Norway Gro Harlem Brundtland, in the six languages. The book emphasized that warming will cause rapid melting of the ice of Antarctica and Greenland, a sharp rise in the level of the World Ocean, and flooding of coastal areas, which will be accompanied by economic and social upheavals.

Over the past 12 years since then, many studies and meetings have been conducted that have shown that the gloomy predictions of this book are untenable. Rising sea levels do occur, but at a rate of 0.6 mm per year, or 6 cm per century. At the same time, vertical raising or lowering of coastlines reach 20 mm per year. Thus, transgressions and regressions of the sea are determined by tectonics to a greater extent than by rising sea levels.

At the same time, climate warming will be accompanied by an increase in evaporation from the surface of the oceans and climate moistening, which can be seen from paleo-geographical data. Only 7–8 thousand years ago, during the Holocene climatic optimum, savanna with acacia groves and high-water rivers stretched out on the Sahara, and in Central Asia, Zaravshan flowed into the Amu Darya, the Chu River - into the Syr Darya, the level of the Aral Sea was at 72 m and all these rivers, wandering through the territory of modern Turkmenistan, flowed into the bowing depression of the Southern Caspian. Similar things happened in other arid regions of the world.

2.4. Carbon dioxide problem

   Among the global environmental problems facing humanity, the problem of CO2 is one of the most controversial. many consider it imaginary, far-fetched. Indeed, there are no real signs of climate warming, which is predicted by some climatologists and physicists. Warming, in their opinion, should occur due to an increase in the greenhouse effect, which in turn arises as a result of the accumulation in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide of anthropogenic origin.
In the Quaternary period, including our time, the CO2 content in the air is characterized by very small values. In the XIX century. The CO2 content in the air was also significantly lower than today. In recent years, the rate of accumulation of this gas in the atmosphere is unprecedentedly high on the globe. Will its effects be beneficial or harmful? Opinions of experts on this subject diverge ...
Until recently, most researchers considered burning fossil fuels to be the only reason for the increase in CO2 content in the air in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Today, among the processes that violate the reduction of land cover of the land are such as: 1) deforestation; 2) agriculture; 3) overgrazing and a number of other violations.
Deforestation during construction. mining, the creation of reservoirs and especially the transformation of forest land into agricultural land is considered the most important process leading to the irreplaceable loss of organic matter in the biosphere. 25% of the carbon dioxide contained in the atmosphere owes its presence to this process. Deforestation and fuel combustion on the scale of produced CO2 now roughly equilibrate each other.
Forest degradation occurs with excessive use for recreation and tourism, with air pollution and in some other cases (intensive grazing, flooding of the area, drainage of nearby marshes, etc.). Observations have found that even a negligible load causes changes in land cover, comparable to those that occur with prolonged use. Soil compaction that occurs in forest parks, reserves, etc. leads to a decrease in the mass of the roots of trees, which reduces the growth of wood, the trees become smaller, thinning and shortening their needles. Mechanical damage to trees leads to the development of diseases and pests. With a massive forest visit, the lower tiers of vegetation perish, the soil litter is trampled down and the humus horizon suffers. Thus, in parks and recreation areas in the forest, the reserves of organic matter in the soil are reduced by 50% or more.
   Very noticeable degradation of forests with significant air pollution. Fly ash, coal and coke dust clog the pores of the leaves, reduce the access of light to the plants and weaken the assimilation process. Contamination of soil with metal dust emissions, arsenic dust in combination with superphosphate or sulfuric acid poisons the root system of plants, retarding its growth. Toxic to plants and sulfurous anhydrite. The vegetation is completely destroyed under the influence of the fumes and gases of the copper-smelting works in their immediate vicinity. Damage to the vegetation cover, and primarily to forests, is caused by acidic precipitation as a result of sulfur compounds being carried over hundreds and thousands of kilometers. Acid precipitation has a regional destructive effect on forest soils. A noticeable decrease in forest biomass is apparently also due to fires.
   Agriculture in our time is a powerful process leading to a rapid decrease in humus reserves in soils and release of CO2. Most of the humus is lost as a result of severe erosion and blowing. In addition, cultivated land loses humus due to its oxidation when plowing the soil and burning off vegetation in the slash-and-burn farming system. Permanent loss of humus by soils is noticed when nitrogen reserves are depleted in them, which are not replaced by fertilizers.
In developed countries in our time, nitrogen depletion of the soil is compensated by the introduction of mineral nitrogen fertilizers and crops of legumes. Excessive grazing in the tundra, forests, meadows and especially in drylands leads to their destruction. At present, overgrazing is especially damaging to African lands. Eurasia, Latin America and Australia. At the same time, the soil with its organic matter is gradually removed from the desertified areas.
The drainage of wetlands leads to the oxidation of part of the organic matter accumulated in the peatlands. In addition, when a meter layer of swamp water is removed from an area of 1 ha, tens of tons of dissolved organic matter are additionally released and oxidized. Irrigation of land also in some cases leads to soil loss as a result of irrigation erosion. At the same time, the proper melioration of poor desert lands, on the contrary, is an event that increases the resources of organic matter in the soil. Currently, annually 0.2-0.3 million hectares of irrigated land turn into wastelands due to salinization and waterlogging. After that, they often collapse quickly.
The construction and growth of cities, the creation of communications and mining lead, as a rule, to the complete destruction of soil and vegetation cover, although then cultural soils and vegetation are created on a part of the territories covered by these processes. This only partly compensates for the loss of organic matter. At present, the scale of construction of cities and communications and the extraction of minerals are increasing so rapidly that several tens of millions of hectares of land will be land disturbed by mining. Obviously, it would not be an exaggeration to assume that annually construction work and mining destroy soil and vegetation cover over an area of 5-10 million hectares, which leads to a decline in reserves of organic matter in the biosphere, calculated in tens and hundreds of tons in dry weight from 1 hectare. Even the most careful calculation should give a total annual loss of several hundred million tons of organic matter.

3. Consequences of the greenhouse effect.

3.1. Forecasts of various scientists on the issue

greenhouse effect

If the current rates continue, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere will double by 2060 compared with the pre-industrial level, and by the end of the century - four times. This is very disturbing, since the life cycle of CO 2 in the atmosphere is more than one hundred years, compared with the eight-day cycle of water vapor.

Thus, physicist M.I. Budyko predicts an increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 in 2000 to 380 parts per million, in 2025 - to 520 and in 2050. - up to 750. The average annual surface global temperature will increase, in his opinion, compared to its value at the beginning of the twentieth century. by 0.9 degrees Celsius in 2000, by 1.8 degrees in 2025, and by 2.8 degrees in 2050 M.I. Budyko formulates his point of view as follows: “Considering the process of atmospheric depletion of carbon dioxide, which has prevailed over the last 100 million years, as a direct threat to the existence of the biosphere due to a decrease in the productivity of autotrophic plants and the possibility of complete ice-water.” impact on the biosphere helps to eliminate this threat. Many aspects of the process of global warming can be beneficial for mankind (increasing e plant productivity, expanding the possibilities of economic use of areas with a cold climate, etc.) However, one should take into account the inevitability of a number of difficulties that will arise in connection with this process. short term to adapt many sectors of economic activity to the conditions of a rapidly changing climate and other components of the natural environment. "
   According to the physicist V.I. Lebedev, an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the air should not generally affect the Earth’s climate, while the productivity of terrestrial vegetation, and in particular of cereals, will increase.
Physicist B.M. Smirnov also points to the possibility of increasing yields. In this regard, the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is considered by them as a factor favorable to humanity.
   The question of increasing the productivity of land plants as a result of an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the air, however, is not nearly as simple as the authors of optimistic forecasts write about it. Most likely, the assertions of some physicists that the biosphere already now functions as a buffer and assimilates more CO2, the more it enters the atmosphere, are incorrect. The biosphere does not yet perform such a function. On the contrary, under the influence of a growing anthropogenic load, it collapses and becomes a source of enormous quantities of CO2.
Pessimistic predictions of the effects of anthropogenic warming of the climate are based on the idea of the existence of a dynamic equilibrium between all components of the natural environment and the danger of disturbing this equilibrium. In particular, anthropogenic warming of the climate and the associated decrease and then disappearance of snow and ice masses in high latitudes and at the poles of the Earth will significantly weaken the meridional atmospheric circulation and, as a result, the continental moisture. Whatever the consequences of increasing CO2 in the air, their positive effect cannot be compared with the negative (melting of continental glaciers and degradation of permafrost), which is inevitable in the case of "anthropogenic overheating" of the Earth.
   As already noted, over the past 250-300 years, the level of the oceans has increased by an average of 1 mm per year. In the 20s of the twentieth century. its rise reached 1.4-1.5 mm per year, which is equivalent to an annual increase in ocean water mass of 520-540 cubic meters. km It is assumed that in the 20s of the XX1 century. the rate of increase of the oceanic level will exceed 0.5 cm per year.
The projected anthropogenic warming of the climate should be most significant in the Arctic and Subarctic regions. Here at the beginning of the XX1 century. degradation of permafrost and subsidence of icy rocks may occur. All cities, towns and communications built on such rocks are threatened with destruction.
There is every reason to think that radical climate change and the corresponding degradation of glaciers will also be accompanied by a violation of the regime of processes taking place in the depths of the Earth. Due to the melting of glaciers and the redistribution of water masses from the poles to low latitudes, the speed of rotation of the Earth will slow down by an insignificant amount. However, this should cause a change in its shape. The flattening of the earth will decrease somewhat. In middle and low latitudes, compression stresses should increase. Will the additional compression pulses, caused by the anthropogenic factor, be able to stimulate volcanism and earthquakes in the Pacific Belt, the Mediterranean and other similar areas?
If, in connection with the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the column of water in the ocean quickly grows by 5–7 m, then this may be enough to activate seismic volcanic processes in the most sensitive areas of the ocean.
The flooding of the continental margins and the change in the geography of their wet and arid zones will also affect the underground "hydrosphere". Will the rise and lowering of the earth's crust in areas of increasing and reducing natural water-bearing horizons be accompanied by the excitation of seismic activity? Data on anthropogenic subsidence and uplifts of the earth's surface, exciting seismicity, indicate the likelihood of such events.
The dynamic equilibrium between the earth's envelopes, which is maintained by slow-moving geological and geographic processes, can be disastrously disrupted over hundreds of years. Such a violation will undoubtedly cause great damage to the world economy, although the technical genius of mankind will certainly be able to withstand it. Consequently, the sooner measures are taken to counteract an increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2, the better it will be for the biosphere and man.

Considering all the data developed by scientists around the world, and the results of research by the UN Commission, the average global temperature in this century can increase by 1.4-1.8 degrees Celsius. The world ocean level will rise by 10 cm, putting at risk millions of people in countries that are low above sea level. Given the increasing influence of humankind on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Observation (IPCC) is insisting on increasing the number of observations to create a more complete picture of global warming.

Global warming makes you shudder. The UN has prepared a new report predicting the effects of global warming. The findings of the experts are disappointing: the negative results of warming will be felt almost everywhere.

For most of Europe, the threat of flooding will increase significantly (residents of the UK have already experienced this in the past year). Glaciers of the Alps and large areas of permafrost will begin to melt and disappear completely by the end of this century. Climate change will have a positive effect on crops harvested in northern Europe, but almost as much of a negative impact will be on agriculture in southern Europe, which in the 21st century will suffer from constant droughts.

In Asia, things are much worse. High temperatures, droughts, floods and soil erosion will cause irreparable damage to agriculture in many Asian countries. Rising sea levels and stronger tropical cyclones will force tens of millions of people to leave their homes and move away from the shores of the sea.

Not the best situation will develop in Africa. Grain yields will seriously fall, the amount of available drinking water will decrease. Precipitation will fall less and less, especially in the south, north and west of the continent, leading to the emergence of new desert areas. Localities in Nigeria, Senegal, the Gambia, Egypt and along the southeastern coast of Africa will suffer from rising sea levels and coastal erosion. There will be more epidemics of infectious diseases spread by insects, such as mosquitoes.

In North America and Australia, the picture will not be so unequivocally bad. Some regions will benefit from warming, making agriculture more profitable in them. The rest of the list of disasters that will bring warming include: floods, droughts, epidemics.

However, one of the biggest changes will occur in the polar regions. The thickness and area of Arctic ice will continue to decrease, melting of the permafrost will begin. Once started, the gas in the atmosphere stabilizes. The result will be irreversible changes in the circulation of water in the world's oceans and sea level. UN experts have established that the planet is heating up faster than previously thought, and there is convincing evidence that it is mankind who is responsible for this. Scientists predict that yields will decrease in Asia and Africa, while Australia and New Zealand will suffer from water shortages. The risk of flooding in Europe will increase, and the east coast of the United States will be exposed to increasingly severe storms and coastal erosion. The average temperature in this century will increase from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius, scientists say. Sea levels can rise by a few dozen centimeters, threatening hundreds of millions of people in island nations and coastal countries. There will be less rain on the planet, more deserts, more storms and floods. Within a few years, we all run the risk of being in an unfamiliar and frightening world in which the threat of disastrous epidemics caused by infections that run out of control will hang over humanity. According to scientists gathered at a scientific conference in Washington, global warming will entail new epidemics. The warm and humid climate established on our planet over the next 20 years will help dangerous diseases, such as malaria or dengue fever, which now pose a serious threat to humanity, to conquer new frontiers.

Most affected small island states. It will be especially difficult for developing countries to adapt to changing conditions. Certain positive effects are also expected: an increase in wood production, greater grain yields in such regions of the world as Southeast Asia, and fewer deaths from freezing during the winter. Scientists warn that predicted climate change could potentially lead to "widespread and irreversible changes" during this century. In particular, a slowdown in the supply of warm water to the North Atlantic, a large melting of ice in Greenland and western Antarctica, as well as an increase in the share of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as the Earth warms is predicted.

The UN report published in January is the most detailed and serious work to date, warning of the effects of global warming. The published report states that the signs of these changes are already evident.

Arctic ice cover decreased by 10-15%

Ice on the Antarctic coast from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s retreated south by 2.8 degrees longitude

The forests of Alaska are advancing north - 100 kilometers with the average temperature increasing by one degree Celsius.

The ice cover of lakes and rivers in the middle and upper longitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is now 2 weeks less than in 1850

In Europe, some mountain plants migrate upwards at speeds of one to four meters each decade.

The growing season of garden plants in Europe increased by 11 days

Migratory birds arrive to the north earlier and stay longer.

In order to make the political, financial, economic and environmental practical and strategic implications clear, let us single out the main conclusions from the preceding.
1. Anomalno-neobyasnimaya obshirnaya Melting Siberian Zapadno-warming of Grenlandii to Pakistana .. Eta Melting, kak a consequence, prevraschaet Gulf Stream from the "warmer" for Europe and Zapadnoy klimaticheskogo stabilizatora for North America in the "refrigerator" for e these regions. The warm current of the Gulf Stream to the north is weakened and its possible replacement for the cold current from the north.
2. "El Nino" forms the second cooling climatic "hit" in Canada and the United States.
3. These processes are supplemented by the process of movement of magnetic poles with the entire set of Solar planetary connections and factors.
4. There are no models that could explain these climatic processes. Model "greenhouse effect" is not enough for the description, and therefore - for the prediction of the further development of phenomena.

3.2. Climate change modeling

In recent decades, various models have been created that can be used to assess the effect of changes in the atmospheric composition on climate. This contributed to an understanding of the mechanisms of the upcoming climate change. For calculations in such models, it is necessary to calculate the transport of solar and thermal (long-wave) radiation in the atmosphere at various ratios of its components.

Along with this, it is required to describe the energy exchange between the radiation-active turbulent atmosphere and inhomogeneous surfaces of the land, the ocean and the cryosphere. The system of interacting elements is very complex, and there are still no models that could fully take into account the entire set of natural transport processes in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth. There are relatively simple and more complex models. The most difficult are climate models that take into account the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean. In addition, we need models that reflect the evolution of sea ice and various processes on land (the formation and change of snow cover, the moisture content in the soil and its evaporation by vegetation).

The climate model developed in the Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russian Academy of Sciences) includes a block describing processes in the atmosphere with a spatial resolution of 4x5 °, and an ocean block representing an integral model of the active ocean layer with a given distribution of currents. The model satisfactorily describes the main seasonal and geographical characteristics of the global climate.

In this model, in particular, the distribution over the height of changes in air temperature near the Earth's surface upon doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere was calculated. The maximum warming will be 4 ° C, it will have a stronger effect on the continents, and will manifest itself most strongly in Asia in winter. This is due to the inevitable shift of the snow cover to the north. The change in precipitation has a “spotted” structure. The increase in precipitation is due to more intensive evaporation from the ocean surface and subsequent precipitation on land. However, there are areas where precipitation will be less.

The results of calculations predict significant changes in climate and biotic processes in the Arctic, as well as the restructuring of the general circulation in the Arctic Ocean due to the greenhouse effect. These changes will have economic and environmental consequences of a global scale and should cause an adequate reaction of mankind. This is all the more important in the light of the growing role of the north of Russia as a source of raw materials (oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals, wood) and the most important transportation route. Clearing the Arctic Ocean from the surface of the Arctic Ocean will turn it into an important year-round transport artery, however, increasing humidity, strengthening of fogs and storms will require large investments in ensuring the safety of sea and air transport. Flooding of river mouths will affect plans for the placement of industrial and residential areas, as well as transport terminals. Changes in the productivity and species composition of tundra and taiga ecosystems will affect the biota of the entire region, so it is necessary to develop work to preserve the unique nature of the Arctic basin. To analyze a possible situation and determine adequate preventive measures that can prevent (and, if necessary, use) the effects of the greenhouse effect in this region, it is necessary to further develop and improve mathematical models and methods, their saturation with new natural data.

3.3. Prospects for the development of power, forestry, health care in a warming climate

One of the significant consequences of the expected global warming could be the saving of fuel and energy resources. At the beginning of the XXI century. with the warming of the climate, the heating season in Europe and Canada is already short. At the same time, the cost of heat for heating decreased, respectively, by 15-20% and by 10% ..

In forestry, with the improvement of growing conditions of forest formations, favorable ecological parameters may arise for the growth and reproduction of various insect pests, which will lead to the emergence of significant foci of forest diseases. Therefore, already taken measures to combat deforestation, to increase the rate of reforestation (with an annual growth rate of up to 12 million hectares), to improve the use of wood - all this will create optimal conditions for the development of forestry in the 21st century.

With global warming, negative changes in water quality and water availability in the coastal areas of the ocean can have an adverse effect on human health. Significant increase in air temperature up to 2-3 ° С. may lead to increased mortality of the population in different regions of the globe. According to WHO; In many countries, as a result of global warming, diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filarias, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis (river blindness), tropical fever, Australian encephalitis, etc. may reappear or increase. Therefore, international organizations such as UNEP, WHO, WMO, UNESCO, implement a monitoring program to prevent and reduce the environmental and socio-economic consequences of global warming in our planet.

3.4. Environmental Forecasting

Various measures are currently under discussion that could prevent the increasing "anthropogenic overheating" of the Earth. There is a proposal to remove excess CO2 from the air, liquefy and inject into the deep ocean layers using its natural circulation. Another proposal is to disperse the smallest droplets of sulfuric acid in the stratosphere and thereby reduce the occurrence of solar radiation on the earth's surface.
The enormous scale of the anthropogenic reduction of the biosphere even now suggests that the solution of the CO2 problem should be carried out by “treating” the biosphere itself, i.e. restoration of soil and vegetation cover with maximum reserves of organic matter wherever possible. At the same time, the search aimed at replacing fossil fuels with other sources of energy, primarily environmentally friendly ones that do not require oxygen consumption, should be strengthened, make wider use of water, wind energy, and for a further perspective, energy is the reaction of matter and antimatter.
It is known that there is no blessing in disguise, and now it turned out that the current industrial decline in the country turned out to be useful - ecologically. Production volumes have decreased. and, accordingly, the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere of cities has decreased.
Ways to solve the problem of clean air is quite real. The first is the fight against the reduction of the earth’s plant cover, the planned increase in its composition of specially selected rocks that clean the air of harmful impurities. The Institute of Plant Biochemistry experimentally proved that many plants are able to absorb from the atmosphere such harmful components as alkanes and aromatic hydrocarbons, as well as carbonyl compounds, acids, alcohols, essential oils and others.
A large place in the fight against atmospheric pollution belongs to the irrigation of deserts and the organization here of cultural agriculture, the creation of powerful forest belts. There is a great deal of work to be done to reduce and completely stop the emission of smoke and other products of combustion into the atmosphere. The search for technology for pipe-free industrial enterprises operating in a closed technological scheme — using all production waste — is becoming increasingly urgent.
Human activity is so grand in scope that it has already acquired a global nature-forming scale. Until now, we were primarily looking for how to take more from nature. And the search in this direction will continue. But it is time to work as purposefully on how to give nature what we take from it. There is no doubt that the genius of mankind is capable of solving this daunting task.

4. Ways to solve the problem of the greenhouse effect

4.1. Ways to reduce greenhouse effect

on the state of the Earth's climate

The main measure to prevent global warming can be formulated as follows: find a new type of fuel or change the technology to use current fuels. This means that you need:

Reduce fossil fuel consumption. Dramatically reduce the use of coal and oil, which emit 60% more carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than any other fossil fuel as a whole;

Use substances (filters, catalysts) to remove carbon dioxide from flue gas emissions from coal-fired power plants and factory fireboxes, as well as car exhausts;

Increase the energy efficiency;

Require new homes to use more efficient heating and cooling systems;

Increase the use of solar, wind and geothermal energy;

Significantly slow down deforestation and degradation of forests;

Remove hazardous storage tanks from coastal areas;

Expand the area of existing reserves and parks;

Create laws to prevent global warming;

Identify the causes of global warming, monitor them and eliminate their consequences.

Completely destroy the greenhouse effect is impossible. It is believed that if it were not for the greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the earth's surface would be - 15 degrees Celsius.

4.2. Indicators of air pollution

And the main indicator of air pollution are certain experimentally permissible critical loads and critical levels.

Hardwood reacts to nitrogen oxides. When their concentration is dangerous, brownish-black areas appear on the leaves, the tips of the leaves turn red.

Fluorine causes a gray-green, and then light yellow stripes on the leaves; leaves start to fade and nick.

Excessive ozone causes water to swell on the leaves, the lower surface of the leaves becomes silver or bromine, and the upper is covered with spots.

Pine, buckwheat, barley, oat g spinach, wheat, some flower cultures react well to pollution. fB Japan begonia sown on the streets: at the first signs of smog, its leaves are covered with spots, which then turn into holes. In particular, such a flower as tradiscation changes color depending on air pollution; her blue stamen turn yellow.

Lichens are an excellent indicator of air pollution. This is a true litmus test of air pollution: if the lichens live, then the air is clean: if there are no lichens or they die quickly, then the air is dangerous for humans. Lichen research is dedicated to the whole book.

Leaves of common lilac perfectly absorb lead, exhaust gases. Many other trees, shrubs, just grass have the same properties. According to research scientists for a normal life in a large city per person, you need a total (including lawn greens and suburban areas) 200 m² of green space. This gives the maximum ecologically safe population density in the most green city - 5000 persons / km².

4.3. Atmosphere protection

Protection of the atmosphere includes a set of technical and administrative measures directly or indirectly aimed at stopping or at least reducing the increasing pollution of the atmosphere resulting from industrial development.

Territorial and technological problems include both issues of the location of sources of air pollution, and limiting or eliminating a number of negative effects. The search for optimal solutions to limit atmospheric pollution by this source was intensified in parallel with the growth of the level of technical knowledge and industrial development — a number of special measures for the protection of the atmosphere were developed. In addition, the integration of the search for optimal solutions to limit the effects of atmospheric pollution with an integrated approach to the protection of the atmosphere, which examines the relationship between the individual components of the environment, begins. Thus, the study of the effects of air pollution is becoming increasingly dependent, but no less important part in the field of atmospheric protection.

Giving research to the protection of the atmosphere focused nature should include the fight against pollution, especially industrial, as well as from vehicles and other sources. They can not be carried out, for example, just for the sake of setting tasks, but should indicate ways to improve the existing situation. Thus, this area of research cannot passively comment on the current situation and make predictions based on the data of the “suppliers of pollution” themselves, it should develop concepts, intermediate and long-term plans, as well as specific programs aimed at actively limiting the adverse course of events when using This is a local short-term tactic and long-term nationwide strategy. Atmospheric protection cannot be successful with unilateral and partial measures directed against specific sources of pollution. The best results can be obtained only with an objective, multilateral approach to determining the causes of air pollution, the contribution of individual sources and the identification of real possibilities to limit these emissions.

In urban and industrial conglomerates, where there are significant concentrations of small and large sources of pollutants, only an integrated approach based on specific restrictions for specific sources or their groups can lead to the establishment of an acceptable level of atmospheric pollution with a combination of optimal economic and technological conditions. Based on these provisions, an independent source of information is needed that would have information not only about the degree of air pollution, but also the types of technological and administrative measures. An objective assessment of the state of the atmosphere, together with information about all the possibilities for reducing emissions, allows you to create realistic plans and long-term forecasts of atmospheric pollution for the worst and most favorable circumstances and forms a solid basis for developing and strengthening the atmosphere protection program.

The most polluted part of any city is most often its central part. And the main pollutant is road transport. The car can be called a chemical factory on wheels. The share of the car accounts for 60% of all harmful substances in the urban air. Automobile exhaust gases - a mixture of about 200 substances. They contain hydrocarbons, - not burned down or incompletely burned fuel components, the proportion of which increases dramatically if the car is running at low speed or at the moment of increasing speed at the start, during traffic jams or at a red traffic light.

There are several ways to combat pollution by exhaust gases: technical improvement of engines, fuel equipment, electronic fuel supply systems; improving fuel quality, reducing the content of toxic substances in exhaust gases as a result of the use of fuel burners, catalytic catalysts; use of alternative fuels.

The exhaust gases of cars can be neutralized with the help of special devices in the exhaust system of the car engine, called neutralizers. Flame neutralizer - device for neutralization

Exhaust gases of a car engine afterburner in an open flame. Thermal converter - thermo-storage device for neutralizing exhaust gases of a car engine using flameless combustion method. Liquid neutralizer is a device for neutralizing exhaust gases of automobiles by chemical bonding with liquid reagents.

The electric transport will relieve the population of exhaust gases.

A number of environmentalists put forward a sensible idea of a "tax on carbon dioxide emissions". The country, regardless of the level of industrial development, will receive a certain quota for the production of CO 2. Rich countries will be able to buy carbon credits from poorer countries. Such market relations could help, for example, Brazil get additional funds to combat the destruction of the rainforest. This tax would help boost investment in the development of alternative energy sources.

The first carbon dioxide production tax was introduced by Sweden in 1990. The Ministry of Environmental Protection set the goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 2.5% by the year 2000. A tax on burning coal, oil and natural gas was also introduced. In Russia, a way to utilize carbon dioxide using the latest technology. Carbon dioxide is extracted from flue gases. The operation is carried out by the method of gas separation using ion-exchange membranes, while the concentration of carbon dioxide is brought to 98-99%. Purified carbon dioxide is pumped into the repository, where it comes for further processing.

At the next stage, carbon dioxide is mixed with water vapor and subjected to electrochemical decomposition during electrolysis. As a result of the reaction at high temperature (1100-1150 0 С), ultrapure oxygen is released at the anode, and a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, i.e. synthesis gas, which serves as the main raw material for the production of hydrocarbon compounds, the entire spectrum of modern synthetic materials - from synthetic gasoline and diesel fuel to polymer products (plastics, varnishes, paints, solvents, etc.). This technology for producing hydrocarbons from carbon dioxide has no world analogues.

4.4. The ideas of scientists to save the Earth from global warming

Proposals to solve the problem of global warming from leading scientists are sometimes fantastic, but are considered by experts seriously, because they may be useful, sooner or later. I will give some ideas of scientists to save the earth from global warming:

Today, the Earth absorbs 70% of all the radiation it receives from the Sun, and therefore something should be invented to reduce this figure. Astronomer Roger Anzel ( Roger ancel) suggests placing millions of lenses around the Earth with a diameter of 60 cm and a weight of several grams, which will be able to reflect the sun's rays. This will lead to a decrease in solar radiation. It should be noted that the reduction of solar lighting by 1.6% compensates for the increase in temperature by 1.75 Kelvin (3 degrees Fahrenheit). The effect that light scattering has on temperature is observed, for example, during volcanic eruptions, when a huge mass of particles enter the atmosphere, and as a result, the temperature drops.

According to another similar idea (an article in the journal Acta astronautica) it is supposed to create around the Earth a ring of small particles or spacecraft that can shade the tropics and, thereby, soften the climate. Reflective particles can be taken from mining on Earth, the Moon or on asteroids.

The cost of these projects may be overwhelming: $ 500 billion in the placement of spacecraft and from 6 to 200 trillion dollars in the case of particles.

Climatologist Wallace Broker ( Wallace broker) offers to scatter particles in the stratosphere at an altitude of over 15 km with balls and planes of sulfur, which will hold on at this level for a year or two. This sulfur spraying project is estimated at $ 50 billion.

It is also proposed to produce salt steam using special devices that will take sea water and turn it into real clouds saturated with sodium chloride.

There is an idea to create in the sea zones floating artificial islands of white color with a reflective surface or coating with plastic materials (of the same white color) some desert areas to reflect solar radiation penetrating the Earth.

The proposal to disperse over the ocean of substances that contribute to the growth of algae that absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide, is already being implemented in some areas of Antarctica.

Famous British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking ( Stephen hawking) believes that the survival of the human race depends on its ability to find new homes elsewhere in the Universe, because the risk of the destruction of living things as a result of global warming is rapidly increasing. He believes that people could have a permanent base on the Moon in 20 years and a colony on Mars in the next four decades (according to "Sight").

4.5. Kyoto Protocol

The international conventions on environmental protection have been going on since the 1920s, and many of them have been quite effective. The agreement to ban whale fishing in 1946 reduced their catch from 66 to 1,500 per year over the past 40 years, the international treaty on Antarctica of 1959 and the protocol complementing it from 1991 prohibited the development of mineral resources of this continent to 2040 g .; the extermination of elephants in Africa declined sharply after the ban on commercial ivory trade was imposed in 1990; Finally, in the 13 years since the signing of the Montreal Protocol on the Prohibition of the Production of Ozone-Depleting Substances, their output in the world has decreased sevenfold. As a result, the practice of concluding treaties in the field of environmental protection has significantly expanded: three quarters of their total number have been signed in the last 17 years.

In such a situation, the expectation that the conclusion of a universal treaty on the reduction of harmful emissions into the atmosphere would bear noticeable results seemed quite reasonable. In 1992, the World Environment Conference in Rio de Janeiro adopted a framework convention on climate change, signed by representatives of 180 states. The meeting in Kyoto in December 1997 continued the process begun in Rio and ended with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol.

So, what happened in Kyoto and what was the path that led to this agreement? At the end of the 1980s, a number of developing countries took the initiative, which in a certain sense of the word can be compared with the idea of the so-called new world economic order put forward by developing countries in the 1970s and essentially reduced to an attempt to blackmail the Western world raw materials. In the new conditions, the call of the developing countries (primarily India) speculated on the booming environmental awareness of citizens of Western countries and came down to the proposal to set for each country a limit on emissions of CO 2 and other harmful gases according to its share in world population. Thus, India would have the opportunity at the international level to consolidate its right to increase the volume of emissions of such gases by 25 times; the realization of such a possibility would have led to the release of 17.5 billion tons of greenhouse gases by India in 1990, while the global total of their annual emissions would not exceed 22 billion tons. It was unlikely that such a proposal could be called progressive; Its only positive consequence would be, in the opinion of developing countries, emissions trading: those states whose volume was above the average should either reduce it or buy the right to continue their industrial activity from countries that did not reach the average . Taking into account the fact that even the most modern technologies make it possible to eliminate no more than two thirds of N 2 O and three quarters of CO 2 and SO 2 from production wastes and emitted gases, developing countries hoped to get the right to unhindered increase in their own population) emissions, and at the same time subsidies from Western countries (which in general would eliminate in the third world any motivation to implement environmental protection measures).

The probability distribution of the increase in global temperature by 2090-2100. compared to 1990, the area under the curve is equal to one. The dashed lines mark the smallest and most probable values of the temperature increase of 1.4 ° and 5.8 ° С, according to the data of the Interstate Council on Climate Change. (A source: Uncertainty Analysis of Global Climate Protection. The Economist, April 7-13th.2001.)

Naturally, Western states could hardly agree with such a question. The Rio-signed document called for industrialized countries (but not obliging them) to reduce N 2 O and CO 2 emissions by the year 2000 to a level lower than that achieved in 1990, or at least to a corresponding one. The commitment to quotas was declared, but the main part of the final document was only general assurances of the participants about their desire to fight for a safer human environment. The Kyoto Protocol was intended to concretize these abstract formulations, and to a certain extent it achieved this goal. Representatives of 55 signatories agreed that the emissions in the industrialized countries of the six major harmful compounds - CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 - from 2008 to 2012 should be reduced by 6 -8% compared to the 1990 level. At the same time, the protocol did not specify any restrictions for developing countries, and, in addition, for individual industrialized countries, significantly different benchmarks were set (Australia was even allowed to increase emissions by 8% ). Meanwhile, calculations show that even if such restrictions are observed, the total CO 2 emissions in 2012 may exceed the 1990 level by 30% only due to its emissions in developing countries.

The Kyoto Protocol was not only ineffective from the start, but had no real chance of becoming a truly international treaty. Even before the signing of the protocol, the US Senate stated that it would not ratify the agreement until it stipulated the obligations of developing countries. The damage inflicted on the United States by this act was so obvious that Vice-President A.Gor, who signed it, did not even try to recall this “achievement” during the 2000 election campaign. Few doubted that the situation caused by Montreal Protocol, much more stringently obliged to reduce the production of ozone-depleting substances: five years after its signing, the United States completely stopped their production, the EU countries reduced them by 11 times, while Indonesia increased production by two-thirds, Keith second - twice, and India - three times! The cost of reducing CO 2 emissions in the United States by 20% below the 1990 level could amount to $ 3.6 trillion, i.e. more than 40% of US gross national product.

Realism and hypocrisy

By the beginning of 2000, only 18 countries (out of 55 signatories) had ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Three years after its signing and two years before the new world summit in Johannesburg, it becomes obvious that the agreement was erroneous and impracticable. As we noted at the beginning of the article, less than two months after taking office, US President George W. Bush announced that the United States was unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement.

Of course, Bush’s decision was due to a variety of circumstances; not the last role was played by subjective factors. Meanwhile, now, when the first emotional reaction to this demarche (we will return to it below) is in the past, it is time to admit that the president had more than serious reasons for such a step.

The main reason, of course, was a more realistic assessment of the economic costs associated with the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol for the United States. According to calculations, the United States, which at the end of 2000 produced 300 million tons, or 16%, more CO 2 than was supposed by the Kyoto agreement, had to spend about 3% of its gross national product. At the same time, only from 2000 to 2004, electricity prices would increase by no less than 86%, which would seriously increase the costs in other sectors of the economy. Moreover, in the beginning of 2001, the economic situation in the USA was far from being as favorable as in the second term of B. Clinton’s stay in the White House; At the end of March, at a meeting with the German Chancellor G. Schroeder in Washington, Bush directly stated: “Our economy has slowed its growth ... The idea of limiting CO emissions 2 no economic sense for america (Graff J. // Time. 2001. April 9. P.33). Despite the not quite correct tone of such statements, they, we repeat it once more, appear to be quite reasonable.

Much more important was the fact that the long-growing crisis of the Kyoto agreements and the exit from them of the United States significantly differently focused on the fight against global warming. Justifying his decision, President Bush commissioned the National Academy of Sciences of the United States to prepare a report that realistically reflects the state of affairs in this area. It was presented to the public on June 6, 2001, and produced a bombshell. According to the authors of the report, if we summarize its content in one phrase, “We are not able to confidently associate recent climate change with carbon dioxide content or predict what the future climate will be” (Lindzen R.S. // The Wall Street Journal Europe. 2001. June 12. P.8).

The document notes, firstly, that strictly documented information about the process of global warming refers only to the last three decades, and this is not enough for serious extrapolations; that climate change appears to be the norm, not the exception, and their fluctuations over the past two thousand years have been even greater than, according to experts, they can become in the new century; that, finally, it is currently impossible to predict the course of technology development - the main factor capable of determining the volume of emissions of harmful substances by the end of the new century.

Secondly, according to the report, the rise in the temperature of the earth’s surface over the past 100 years relates more to the period before 1940 than to the later one; carbon dioxide is the most important element of the functioning of the biosphere, but only 5% of the total volume in the atmosphere is provided by industrial activities; carbon dioxide itself is much less conducive to creating the notorious greenhouse effect than air humidity, cloudiness, etc. Finally, some researchers have concluded that under current conditions, a doubling of CO 2 emissions on a global scale is not capable of leading to an increase in temperature by more than 1 ° C. In fact, it was recognized that the world economy today still has enough time for new technologies, more efficient in terms of resource use, to replace the old ones in a completely natural way.

Evaluating the above, we can conclude that Bush’s statement about withdrawing from the Kyoto Protocol should rather be welcomed as a rare case of political sincerity, a clear position, rather than condemned as an attempt to block the positive process that is developing only in rhetoric and dreams. All the more remarkable is the reaction caused in the world by the US decision. In the very first days, the world press hastened to declare that the American president had only “worked out” the money that energy corporations had invested in his election campaign; the latter, indeed, sent nine times more funds to the republican cashier’s office than donated to the democrats, but the total amount of contributions was less than $ 3 million (in 1996 private donations to the republican party’s fund reached $ 93.1 million, and in 2000 were even bigger).

Carbon emissions (tons per million dollars of gross national product) by some developed (color) and developing countries. (A source: ORNL BP Amaco World Watch Institute, State of the World. Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society. N.Y .; L., 2001.)

Many world leaders have expressed deep concern for the Bush move; it looked particularly understandable to G. Schroeder, whose government depended on the support of the Green faction in the Bundestag; especially hypocritical - in Y. Mori, whose confidence rating in Japan hit by the crisis was below the 10% mark. It is noteworthy that such a reaction came from the leaders of countries that, like the United States, not only prove unable to fulfill the conditions of the protocol (by 2012 the EU countries would not reduce CO 2 emissions by 8% compared to 1990 levels , and will increase by 6%), but, what is even more interesting, over the last three years they have not even tried to send it to their national parliaments for ratification. One can only imagine what a service President George W. Bush rendered to these leaders, the first to refuse beautiful but obviously unrealizable promises.

Is the US withdrawal from the Kyoto agreements critical to continuing the struggle for the environmental recovery of our planet? After all, there is still the possibility of their ratification by the other signatories. For example, some experts believe that Japan will ratify the protocol, if only because it does not want to hammer the last nail into the coffin of the treaty bearing the name of Kyoto. Consequently, there remains a chance for the continuation in 2002 of negotiations on limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This motive may be important, but there are certainly more significant factors that will prevent ratification of the pact. The process of gradual reduction of the pollution level goes and will go further because, firstly, it corresponds to economic expediency and, secondly, following the ecological imperative becomes an element of the world perception of wider circles of society, first of all in the countries of the Western world.

Turn to recent history. The United States, as shown above, is leading in the production of hazardous waste. However, this does not mean that they have not made obvious progress over the past few decades. With the gross national product grown by 2.5 times, the United States today uses less ferrous metals than in 1960; from 1980 to 1997, oil and gas consumption per dollar of gross national product fell by 29%, despite the fact that during the same period oil prices decreased three times; although gas prices in the United States remained almost three times lower than in Europe, in 1973-1986. gasoline consumption by an average new American car dropped from 17.8 to 8.7 liters per 100 kilometers. The physical mass (in tons) of American exports, estimated at $ 1 million, declined by 43% from 1967 to 1988, and doubled during the 90s. In general, the economic needs of the countries-members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in natural resources, calculated on the $ 100 of produced national income, should decrease from 2000 to 2030 almost 10 times - from 300 to 31 kg. Large industrial companies are increasingly rejecting the use of rare and associated with large-scale interference in the nature of materials. The creation of the Kodak corporation without silver photography has dramatically reduced the market for this metal; The same thing happened when Ford announced the appearance of catalysts based on platinum substitutes, and chip manufacturers refused to use gold contacts and conductors. Limited to the scope of this article, we will not give similar examples regarding the EU, but they are no less impressive. Thus, developed countries quite naturally, without any international agreements and conventions, limit the inefficient use of natural resources and reduce the burden on the environment.

It should be borne in mind that the most important factor in the formation of an eco-friendly economic system is not so much a restriction on the use of any production factor or a ban on atmospheric pollution, but on the invention and application of new technologies, because only they can create an economy that will not threaten the very existence of the biosphere . When considering the situation in such a context, it is impossible not to admit that the United States and other Western countries are not antagonists of the environmental process, but essentially the only force capable of taking it from the field of demagogy to the sphere of specific measures to protect the environment. Therefore, the failure of the Kyoto Treaty is, in our opinion, not just a failure of some abstract agreement, but a turning point, showing that it corresponded to the realities of the 20th century. the ecological paradigm goes along with the past century.

Formation of a new environmental concept

Understanding the preparation and conclusion of the Kyoto agreement, as well as the subsequent actual refusal to comply with it, leads us to two main conclusions. The first concerns the very nature of the problem the Kyoto agreement dealt with, the problem of global warming. The US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol is connected, in our opinion, not so much with the inability to follow the letter and spirit of the agreement, as with the fact that such following is not considered today as sufficiently necessary. Opinions of experts on the relative artificiality of the problem itself seem to us quite reasonable. To clarify this thought, let us turn to the analogy of 30 years ago.

In the mid-70s there was no more popular environmental topic for discussion than the problem of the exhaustibility of non-renewable natural resources. On the eve of the energy crisis of 1973, it was believed that the reserves of oil, gas and basic metals on the planet would be exhausted over the next half a century. However, this forecast was not justified. Already by 1987, oil reserves, which should have been reduced to 500 billion barrels, "rose" to 900 billion; by that time (compared to 1970) gas reserves had increased from 42.6 to 113.6 billion m 3, copper from 279 to 570 million tons, silver from 6.7 to 10.8, and gold from 31.1 to 47.27 thousand tons. The estimated experts have reached the expiration date of proven oil and gas reserves from 31 to 41 years, and gas from 38 to 60 years. At the same time, only in the United States by 2010, the discovered oil and gas reserves are expected to reach a level that exceeds the 1990 level by 37% and 41%, respectively.

4.6. The winner of the greenhouse effect promised 10 million pounds

British entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson (Richard Branson) awarded the award of 10 million pounds to those who will be able to solve the problem of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, leading to the greenhouse effect. About this newspaper “The Independent”.
Get the prize will be able to "creator of the most convincing invention for the active absorption" of carbon dioxide. The winner must be determined by a special jury consisting of major scientists.
Branson has already come up with a similar initiative, promising to pay $ 10 million for the creation of a reusable device capable of twice in one week to ascend into space (defined as the space remote from the planet's surface more than 100 kilometers). This prize was awarded in 2004.
Some observers point out that Branson is stimulating the development of technology in a fundamentally wrong direction. According to some scientists, researchers need to focus on ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels, which should reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The proposal of Sir Richard stimulates the development of untested and, perhaps, insufficiently grounded scientific utilization technologies of carbon dioxide utilization.
The billionaire is also blamed for the fact that he, unlike Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, does not send money directly to charitable purposes, but organizes venture structures operating in their respective fields, which in the future may become potential sources of income.
The Branson initiative is intended to be supported by former US Vice President Albert Gore, who visited Branson last summer in his London residence.
Last September, Sir Richard announced that all revenues from the work of the five aviation and railway companies belonging to him would be spent on developing energy production technologies that did not cause global warming.

Some observers point out that Branson is stimulating the development of technology in a fundamentally wrong direction. According to some scientists, researchers need to focus on ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels, which should reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The proposal of Sir Richard stimulates the development of untested and, perhaps, insufficiently grounded scientific utilization technologies of carbon dioxide utilization.
Of course, from the point of view of science, the act of Richard Branson seems unreasonable. For scientists, it would be much preferable if these 10 million pounds sterling were invested in work already underway on the issue of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.
But the initiative of the British millionaire has one undoubted plus: the promised bonus will give a powerful impetus to the revitalization of a large number of amateurs.
With all due respect to the works of recognized scientific luminaries, it is necessary to recognize that only geniuses or amateurs dare to go beyond the boundaries of the unknown. Since genius in our world is prohibitively small, in solving global problems, solutions to which often lie outside the established scientific ideas, it can be very useful and productive to listen to the proposals of amateurs. The overwhelming majority of scientists are looking for solutions to problems within the rigidly defined framework of the currently dominant theories and using well-tested tools. Only by youth or genius do they allow themselves improvisations that go beyond scientific standards. Amateurs are not aware of these standards, and therefore they easily step over the “flags” - scientific dogmas, to which many members of the scientific community have awe. And stumble on the traces leading to the solution of a problem. Knowledge and patience, however, is not enough to get a clearly formulated solution along these tracks. Yes, this is not necessary. Having trampled on the flags, they unleash an academic flock, whose members, clinging to each other for supremacy, come out to the goal, bite into the problem, and humanity gets another solution to one of its problems.

5. Conclusion

The protection of nature is the task of our century, a problem that has become social. Again and again we hear about the danger that threatens the environment, but so far many of us consider them an unpleasant, but an inevitable outcome of civilization and believe that we will still have time to cope with all the revealed difficulties.

However, the human impact on the environment has become rampant. In order to fundamentally improve the situation, purposeful and thoughtful actions will be needed. Responsible and effective environmental policy will be possible only if we accumulate reliable data on the current state of the environment, sound knowledge of the interaction of important environmental factors, if we develop new methods to reduce and prevent harm caused to Nature by Man.

I believe that now all the forces must be thrown to ensure that each production has developed a closed loop, that is, that nothing is thrown into the air or into the rivers, and everything is recycled and used. From this all will benefit. The state will receive additional products, and people will breathe clean air.
Probably, the prospect of the greenhouse effect could be a catalyst for world-wide awareness of the urgent need for action to protect our Earth.

The problem of historical and modern changes The climate turned out to be very difficult and does not find a solution in the schemes of univariate determinism. Along with the increase in carbon dioxide concentration, an important role is played by changes in the ozonosphere associated with the evolution of the geomagnetic field. The development and testing of new hypotheses is a prerequisite for the knowledge of the laws of the general circulation of the atmosphere and other geophysical processes affecting the biosphere. I am confident that we, by our attitude to nature, become like chopping bitches under ourselves. Spoiled, and then we start screaming about it.

I believe that today the problem of global warming is akin to yesterday's problem of the exhaustion of natural resources. The very danger of warming exists, but the need for extraordinary measures to combat it is not at all as urgent as it usually seems. Of course, as in the 70s, drawing public attention to the very possibility of exhaustion of natural resources, so in the 90s the emphasis on the problem of global climate change can intensify the search for alternatives, but this is what should now be limited to, not portraying the situation too dramatically.
The second conclusion is connected with the need to develop an ecological paradigm adequate to the new century. We do not pretend to solve such a large-scale task, but we would like to point out several important positions in this context that directly follow from the experience of recent years.

The acuteness of environmental problems is perceived quite differently today in the post-industrial West and in the third world, and one should reject the misconception that the situation in developed countries is more dramatic. Therefore, a fundamental imperative of any environmental protection measures should be their symmetry. The West should not make unilateral concessions to the third world and lose its economic dynamism in attempts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions at a time when other countries are increasing them. We do not call for refusal to negotiate or put ultimatums to the third world, blocking their economic growth, but there should be mutual responsibility. For example, it would be possible to consider an option in which Western countries would pledge to stabilize emissions, and developing countries would stop the destruction of tropical forests that can produce oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide. Anyway, all conservation measures on a global scale should only be mutual, otherwise they will be inevitable failure. The example of the Kyoto Protocol clearly demonstrates this.

The collapse of the Kyoto accords, along with the success of a number of other environmental conventions, highlights a very interesting aspect of the problem. I mean the obvious unpreparedness of the modern world community for concerted action on problems that are not sufficiently private and limited in nature. In the case of the Antarctic Convention, the treaty on the cessation of hunting for whales or the Montreal Protocol, success was achieved for two reasons: on the one hand, these tasks were relatively private and did not conflict with the fundamental parameters of economic development, on the other - monitoring compliance with agreements simple enough, and control effective. Trying to limit carbon dioxide emissions, the contracting parties did not take into account the interests of the enormous multitude of economic subjects and for some reason did not realize that they were given power by peoples who had not only environmental interests.

The current situation shows that environmental consciousness in society has already risen to a level where people can sacrifice essential economic interests to environmental problems at the local level, and can do the same if infringement of their insignificant economic interests can improve the environmental situation on a global scale. level, each with no direct relationship. Prefer global environmental goals substantial economic interests are not yet capable of the population of any country in the world. From this it follows that it is necessary to maintain, at least over the coming decades, an emphasis on solving relatively special problems, since they are the destruction of forests, the deterioration of soil quality, the extermination of animals, the spread of epidemics, etc. - seem today the most dangerous, and at the same time, effective and effective mechanisms have already been created to combat them.

The very idea of the possibility of unilateral actions on the part of the Western world that was laid down in the Kyoto Protocol was flawed because, even if successful, those would not change the situation. I will explain this thought. Today, the rapidly developing regions of the third world are the main sources of environmental problems (for example, it is assumed that China will take the lead in terms of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions by 2020). The only condition for reducing their acuteness is for these countries to achieve a higher level of economic development, which has both more environmentally friendly technologies and a new level of self-awareness of the population. However, under current conditions, most of the goods and services of developing countries are consumed in Western countries, on which the economic growth in the third world fully depends on the market conditions. A new wave of environmental measures in the West, reducing the incomes of its population, will lead to a struggle to reduce costs in developing countries, will lead to a revival of the most environmentally inefficient technologies and will create such an additional burden on the human environment as a whole, that no efforts of Europe and the United States are possible. will be able to compensate for this damage. I believe that today it is necessary to promote the economic growth of the third world in every possible way, helping it with technological transfers and financial resources to improve the environmental situation, as well as to restrain uncontrolled developments in the most backward regions; it is precisely with much greater efficiency that funds can be spent that will be saved in the West under the conditions of refusal to follow the Kyoto Protocol.

In my opinion, striving to achieve real results, it is necessary to create a system of economic preferences and sanctions applied to companies and countries seeking to implement environmental programs or impede them. The imposition of sanctions against Brazil until the cutting down of Amazonian forests, or the most favored nation treatment for Toyota’s products, which has recently become a leader in developing technologies that drastically reduce the use of fuel resources, is much more effective than appeals. to countries to reduce the emission of harmful gases into the atmosphere. Countries do not throw waste - they are thrown away by people and industrial companies, and without transferring the main accents to this level, success in large-scale environmental protection activities is impossible.

In conclusion, I would like to point out another important circumstance to which rarely proper attention is paid. In a modern economy, national states do not play the role that, traditionally, is still endowed by their politicians. Ecology today is not opposed to the economy; Improvement of the environmental situation is possible only if it is considered as an economic problem. Meanwhile, the main actors in economic life today are large corporations, and companies operating in the third world depend on them much more than on the governments of the great powers. It is hoped that a broad discussion on the whole range of issues that I touched on in my term paper will contribute to the formation of a new environmental concept that is adequate to the needs of the new century.

6. List of used literature.

* Laurman J. Strategic actions and the problem of the impact of CO 2 on the environment // Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere / V. Bach, A. Crane, A. Berger, A.

* Longgetto (ed.), M .: Mir, 1987. Pp. 425-472.

* Zubakov V.A. “XXI - Future Scenario: Analysis of the Impact of the Global Ecological Crisis”, St. Petersburg GMTU 1995. 255 p.

* Livchak I.F., Voronov Yu.V., Strelkov E.V. "Environmental Protection", Kolos 1995, 265 p.

* Miller T. “Hurry to save the planet”, M, Progress-Pangea 1994, 336 p.

* Order of J. "Global Ecology" M, World 1999. 2 volumes, 358 p., 377 p.

* Stadnitsky G.V., Rodinov A.I. "Ecology" St. Petersburg, Chemistry 1996 p. 240 p.

* Warner S. “Air Pollution, Sources and Controls” M, World 1996 640 p.

* National Geografic Magazine May 1998 Vol. 193, NO. 5, 155 s.

* "In the world of science", N10, 1990.

* "Kaleidoscope", 12 (46), 1997

* Scientific publications from the network Internet problem greenhouse effect and global warming climateAbstract \u003e\u003e Ecology

Effect which in turn will lead to global warming climate. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is growing steadily .... Uncertainty in the question global warming creates skepticism about imminent danger. Problem is that ...

1 Among the global environmental problems in the first place global community puts climate change. Climate change in the history of mankind is one of the most important and at the same time the most natural characteristic of the natural environment. Over 200 million years, the Earth’s climate continuously changed, but it never happened as fast as it does now. Over the past century, the climate on earth has warmed by 0.5 0 C - a fact unprecedented in the geological history of our planet. Sharp climate change in boreal areas affects the decrease in frost winters. Over the past 25 years, the average temperature of the surface air layer has increased by 0.7 0 C. In the equatorial zone, it has not changed, but the closer to the poles, the more noticeable the warming.

The global climate is a complex system, where the gradual accumulation of quantitative changes can lead to an unexpected qualitative leap with unpredictable consequences.

What caused climate warming? What are the consequences of this phenomenon? Are occurrences threatening to humanity with catastrophe and what are the ways to solve these problems?

The climate of the planet is determined by the process of heat and mass transfer in the system Sun - atmosphere - ocean - cryosphere - biosphere. The main factors influencing this process are the solar activity, the Earth albedo, the composition of the atmosphere, the general circulation, the intensity of the processes in the biosphere.

However, the global warming observed over the last century, especially in the last 30–50 years, is generally believed to be associated primarily with the increased “greenhouse effect”. The greenhouse effect is produced by atmospheric gases, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, which accumulate for decades, which absorb infrared heat from the Earth’s surface, heated by sunlight. Thanks to these gases, the heat coming from the earth does not go into space, but is retained in the atmosphere. As a result, the atmosphere is warming up, which is called the greenhouse effect. One should not think that the greenhouse effect is a new, previously unobservable phenomenon. It acts on Earth since the atmosphere appeared. Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface would be below 0 0 C. Nowadays, this temperature is 10 0 C.

Today, the reason for the rapid increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is human economic activity. Among the existing greenhouse gases in climate change, carbon dioxide plays a dominant role. Sources of emissions from industry are those using the burning of coal, oil, natural gas, and transport emissions.

Carbon dioxide is a constant component of atmospheric air. Its concentration in the pre-industrial era was about 0.03%. However, the intensive growth of industry in the 19th and especially the 20th centuries led to a marked increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere. According to the data from the beginning of the industrial revolution until 1994, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by almost 30%. It should be noted that annually up to 6 Gt C / year is emitted into the atmosphere, which led to an increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 1.5-1.7 ppm per year. In the next 50-100 years, experts predict a doubling of these indicators.

During the geological history of the Earth, climate change was accompanied by a change in periods of glacial epoch and warming. For example, there was a sharp cooling and drying of the climate, which happened 6400 BC, in the territory of Mesopotamia, which caused a crisis of agriculture. Around 3200 BC in the same place paleographic methods fix the phase of climate warming, which lasted about 100 years. Many settlements and agricultural lands were abandoned, and in the river valleys, on the contrary, the transition to irrigated agriculture began.

As noted, the era of early civilizations, of course, is characterized by such significant climate changes that they undoubtedly should have affected all aspects of human activity without exception.

The most important information about the climate of the past is provided by fossil remains or imprints of living organisms in sedimentary rocks. Important information can be obtained from data on changes in sea level. Lately effective remedy studying the climate of the past was the analysis of radioactive isotopes of various elements.

Scientific data made it possible to reliably establish that over many millions of years climate change on the planet was accompanied by a change in carbon dioxide concentrations. Thus, in the Late Cretaceous, the average temperature was 11.2 ° C higher than today, and the CO 2 content was 2050 ppm. Accordingly, in the Eocene T = 8.2 ° C, 1180 ppm CO 2, in the Miocene T = 60 ° C, 800 ppm CO 2, in the Pliocene T = 4.8 0 C, 460 ppm CO 2. Currently, the CO 2 content is 376 ppm.

The processes of the onset of glacial epoch over the past million years have been caused by a decrease in the CO 2 content in the atmosphere. According to Henry’s solubility law, feedbacks are possible, showing an increase in the solubility of CO 2 at low temperatures.

The main means of studying climate and its changes are physical and mathematical models that describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean, the interaction of radiation, clouds, aerosols, gas components, and the properties of the earth's surface.

According to these calculations, the global trend of climate change is a catastrophic disruption of climate equilibrium. First of all, warming is predicted, and it will be warmer stronger in high latitudes and in the warm season than in low and in cold weather, respectively, in the Southern Hemisphere, warming should be somewhat greater than in the Northern. This can lead to the melting of polar ice with a subsequent rise in the level of the world ocean and flooding of lowland parts of the land. The consequences should include a change in the atmospheric circulation regime, a change in the precipitation regime, a shift in climatic zones, and the emergence of new deserts on the planet. We can expect an increase in the instability of weather events due to atmospheric moistening (rainfall, hurricanes, floods). In addition, it is worth highlighting the socio-economic problems associated with the migration of the population and a significant increase in the cost of eliminating the effects of global warming.

However, even if the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on the climate is less than we now assume, doubling its concentration should cause significant changes in the biosphere. With doubled CO2 content, most cultivated plants grow faster, produce seeds and fruits 8-10 days earlier, yield is 20-30% higher than in control experiments.

Changing the O 2 / CO 2 ratio can have a strong effect on biological equilibrium. Danger is that to drastic change the composition of the atmosphere will most quickly adapt the simplest species of organisms; hence the high probability of the emergence of new forms of pathogens.

Climate warming naturally leads to its wetting. Over the past 10 years, the amount of precipitation on the planet has increased by 1%.

Not so much cold and heat are dangerous as sharp temperature drops in different parts of the planet. The land heats up much faster than the oceans and glaciers, so the winds are blowing from the oceans to the continents, carrying a large amount of moisture. Already, we are witnessing the fact that in recent years hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons have become more frequent and intensified, causing rainfall, snowfalls and floods. Simultaneously with the warming of the troposphere, the stratosphere cools. Today, global climate change is causing severe droughts in the tropical zone, leading to famine in Somalia, the Philippines, and southern China. Whatever serves as a basis for climate warming, this process takes place and its consequences are already apparent.

To address the potential threat of global climate change, coordination is needed between the global community, politicians and relevant experts. Since 1988, under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization, there is an authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that assesses the available data, the likely consequences climate changedeveloping and proposing a response strategy. Attention to the issues of global climate change and the assessment of socio-economic impacts allowed at the international level to conclude a number of conventions and protocols to them.

The first step in tackling this problem was the adoption in 1992 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the purpose of which was to pool efforts to prevent dangerous climate change and stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Currently, over 190 countries of the world are parties to the Framework Convention.

Limiting anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere implies the creation of an appropriate system of economic relations. The legal side of regulating these issues is reflected in the Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997, according to which the signatories to the country by 2008-2012 undertake to reduce their cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 5% compared with the 1990 level. Regulating the economic mechanisms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, the Protocol contains no restrictions on any activities, as well as penalties. The Kyoto Protocol established quotas on greenhouse gas emissions for developed countries and countries with economies in transition. Mechanisms such as trading in greenhouse gas emissions will not only help reduce global costs of reducing emissions, but also generate new economic incentives for the introduction of more environmentally friendly fuels and energy-saving technologies.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Grubb M., Vrolik K., Brack D. Kitos protocol: Analysis and interpretation / Trans. from English - M .: Science, 2001.- 304 p.
Heinz E. Climate change in the history of time. Ecology and life, 2001, №1, p. 52-54.
Ecology, nature conservation, environmental safety. Under the general ed. A.T. Nikitin, S.A. Stepanova. -M.: Publishing house MNEPU, 2000. - 648 p.

Bibliography link

Uvarova N.N. CLIMATE AS A GLOBAL PROBLEM: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE // Successes of Modern Natural Science. - 2006. - № 4. - p. 100-102;
URL: https://natural-sciences.ru/ru/ru/article/view?id=10264 (access date: 08.11.2017). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"