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Climate change caused by human activity. What impact will global warming have on the world? What is global warming?

Of all the issues related to ecology, today the most attention is paid to those related to the effects of climate change. This is quite understandable, since it is they who are able to have the most noticeable effect on the life of humanity in the future.

At the same time, it should be noted that the number of near-scientific speculations on this topic has already exceeded all imaginable limits, therefore the problem of obtaining a reliable forecast of the effects of climate change is of particular relevance. It seems that at this point in this issue the most accurate information provides the UN system.

According to experts of this organization, the increase in temperatures has already accelerated the hydrological cycle. A warmer atmosphere retains more moisture, becomes less stable, which leads to an increase in precipitation, particularly in the form of heavy rainfall. Increasing the temperature also accelerates the evaporation process. The end result of these changes in the water circulation will be a reduction in the quantity and quality of fresh water in all major regions. At the same time, wind regimes and cyclone paths are also subject to change. An increase in the intensity (but not frequency) of tropical cyclones with stronger gusts of wind with maximum scale and heavy rainfall is expected.

Climate change will significantly affect the spread of mosquitoes and other carriers of infectious diseases that affect the seasonal distribution of certain types of pollen, which are allergens, and the risk of heat waves will also increase. On the other hand, the mortality rate due to hypothermia will decrease.

Wildlife and biodiversity, and so endangered habitats and other critical circumstances caused by human activity, face the challenge of climate change. Some species will not survive the transition, and 20–30% of biological species are likely to experience an increased risk of extinction. Among the most vulnerable ecosystems are coral reefs, northern (subarctic) forests, inhabitants of mountain regions and regions with a Mediterranean climate.

The most accurate indicator of sea level as a result of ocean expansion and melting of ice until the end of the twenty-first century (compared with the level of 1989–1999) will be 28–58 cm. This will lead to flooding of coastal areas and soil erosion.

At the moment there is direct evidence of the actual reduction in the mass of the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, which contributes to the rise in sea level. About 125,000 years ago, when the polar regions were much warmer than today for a long period, the melting of polar ice led to a rise in sea level from 4 to 6 m. Inertia is characteristic of the rise in sea level, and it will continue for many millennia.

Oceans are also exposed to elevated temperatures, which leads to complications in the life of marine life. Over the past four decades, for example, plankton in the waters of the North Atlantic has migrated to the pole at 10 ° latitude. Similarly, ocean acidification due to the absorption of more carbon dioxide negatively affects the amount of corals, marine mollusks, other species, as well as the formation of their shells or skeletons.

Countries with high levels of poverty will be the most vulnerable to climate change, as they have fewer resources to invest in preventing and reducing the negative effects of climate change. Farmers leading subsistence farming, Aboriginal people and residents of coastal regions are more at risk.

UN specialists also managed to establish regional features of climate change and their consequences. In this matter, their assessments are as follows:

Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and fluctuations due to significant poverty, a weak management base, a complex of disasters and conflicts. Since the 1970s, there has been an increase in the area prone to drought in the region, and the climate in the Sahel and South Africa has become much drier over the course of the 20th century. Water supply and agricultural production systems are also under great threat. By 2020, the harvest is expected to decrease by almost 50%, and in some large regions with minimal natural and climatic conditions for agriculture, a decrease in productivity is likely. Forests, meadows and other natural ecosystems are already subject to change, in particular this applies to South Africa. By the 2080s, the dryland area in Africa will increase by 5–8%.

Antarctica. With the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula, which is experiencing transient warming, on the continent as a whole over the past 50 years, temperature and snowfall rates have remained relatively stable. Since the Antarctic ice contains frozen 90% of the fresh water on the planet, researchers are closely monitoring all possible signs of melting glaciers and ice sheets on this continent.

Arctic. Over the past 100 years, along with world-wide indicators, the average temperature in the Arctic has almost doubled. The average amount of ice in Arctic waters decreases by 2.7% per decade; if the amount of emissions to the atmosphere as a result human activities  Compared with the current indicators will continue to grow, by the end of the XXI century, the vast territories of the Arctic Ocean may lose their annual ice cover. Changes in the Arctic are critical, as they can have important implications at the global level.

Asia. By 2050, more than a billion people living in the region may suffer from reduced availability of fresh water. Melting of ice in the Himalayas, which is projected to lead to an increase in floods and stone avalanches, over the next two to three decades, will also adversely affect the state of water resources. In the process of reducing glaciers river flow will decrease. Coastal areas, especially densely populated regions, are more at risk if sea level rise and, in some cases, water rise in rivers is taken into account.

Australia and New Zealand  experiencing a critical situation in the field of water supply and agriculture, changes in natural ecosystems, seasonal fall in snow cover and shrinking glaciers. Over the past few decades, more heat waves have been observed in the northwestern region of Australia and the southwestern region of New Zealand, as well as light frosts and heavy rainfall; reduced rainfall in the southern and eastern regions of Australia and the north-east region of New Zealand; increased drought intensity in Australia.

Europe. Glaciers and permafrost zones are melting, vegetation periods are prolonged, and extreme environmental conditions, such as the catastrophic heat wave of 2003, are more often observed. Researchers are convinced that warmer winters, more precipitation, greater forest areas and higher agricultural productivity are expected in the northern regions of Europe. The southern regions in the Mediterranean region will witness a rise in temperature in summer, a decrease in precipitation, an increase in the intensity of drought, a decrease in forest area and a decrease in agricultural production.

In Europe there is a large number of low-lying coastal zones prone to rising sea levels. Also endangered by the end of the millennium will be many plants, reptiles, amphibians, and other species.

Latin America. The tropical forests of eastern Amazonia, as well as southern and central Mexico, are projected to be gradually replaced by savanna. Due to the combination of climate change and human land use, the climate in some regions of northeastern Brazil and most of central and northern Mexico will become more arid. There is a high probability of desertification and salinization of 50% of agricultural lands in the rivers of the region in the 2050s.

North America. As a result of climate change, a significant limitation of water resources is projected in the future, the use of which in the region is growing due to the needs of agriculture, industry and cities.

An increase in temperature will lead to a decrease in snow cover in mountainous regions, an increase in evaporation and, accordingly, to a change in the seasonal distribution of water. Reduced water levels in the Great Lakes region and major river systems will affect water quality, navigation, the recreational industry and hydropower. The continuation will be natural fires and invasions of harmful insects, which will exacerbate the situation of warming and dry soil in the world.

During the twenty-first century, the forced migration of biological species to the north and their placement in higher positions on the earth's surface completely transformed the ecosystems of North America.

Small island states are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to their limited size, they are more at risk of natural disasters and external destruction, resulting in rising sea levels and the potential threat of a reduction in freshwater resources.

In addition, the potential losses of the world economy due to climate change are predicted.

In particular, it is estimated that in agriculture due to warming damage may occur due to a decrease in soil moisture, an increase in the number of plant pests, an increase in plant and animal diseases, and also due to the stressful effects of heat. However, in some regions, soil erosion may increase due to increased rainfall, while in others there will be a drought. Models predict that in some mid-latitude regions (for example, the United States) the number of dry years may increase from 5% at present to 50% by 2050.

However, there are also possible positive effects for the economy due to warming. Thus, a period of time favorable for plant growth will increase. In addition, an increase in yields is expected with an increase in CO2 concentration due to the known stimulating effect of carbon dioxide on plant photosynthesis. According to laboratory experiments, doubling the concentration of CO2 can increase the yield of rice, soybeans and other crops by 1/3.

With a relatively small fall in gross domestic product, significant changes are expected in the food market. So, even with “very unfavorable” scenarios (when in most developing countries the harvest will decrease by 5-40%) the gross product may decrease by only 0.5%, but prices will increase by 40%. Because of this rise in prices in the US alone, consumers will spend $ 40 billion more on food annually, while farmers' incomes will increase by only $ 19 billion compared with 1986.

According to some estimates, famine, indirectly associated with climate warming, will cause the death of 900 million people in the period 2010-2030. It should be noted that the impact of climate change on agriculture in different regions of even the same country will be very different.

Rising sea levels will most seriously affect coastal zones and small islands. Usually, three types of damage from rising sea levels are considered: additional capital costs for shore protection facilities, losses associated with coastal land losses, and costs due to more frequent flooding. According to available projections, capital expenditures in the next century will amount to between 73 and 111 billion dollars for the United States alone, based on an increase in the level of 1 m.

In the event of a 1 m rise in sea level, it is expected that only the United States will lose (if no protective measures are taken) 6,650 sq. M. miles of land, resulting in annual economic losses of nearly $ 6 billion. For the whole world with an increase in the level of 0.5 m, the expected economic losses will amount to approximately $ 50 billion.

It is estimated that in the event of an increase in ocean level of 1 m, the number of people living in the area of ​​possible flooding will increase by about 20%. The annual economic damage due to this will be measured in hundreds of millions of dollars.

Some increase in forest fires and forest reduction due to droughts are expected, compensated by more intensive forest growth due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. In general, estimates of losses in forestry due to climate change are very uncertain and equal to about 2 billion dollars a year.

According to forecasts, due to droughts and other effects accompanying climate change, annual economic losses in water supply will be approximately $ 50 billion.

In determining the cost of maintaining a comfortable temperature in buildings, it is taken into account that climate warming reduces the cost of heating homes, but this increases the cost of air conditioning. Accounting for these circumstances leads to an assessment of economic losses for the global economy in the amount of $ 20 billion a year.

The purpose of insurance is to protect certain sectors of the economy from unexpected or accidents, including extreme weather conditions. Since 1987, after a relatively calm twenty-year period, the insurance industry began to incur an additional loss of about $ 1 billion a year from various weather-related causes. So, in 1992, only Hurricane Andrew caused damage of $ 30 billion, with half of this damage reimbursed by insurance companies.

In the field of tourism, the most significant losses (approximately 1.7 billion dollars a year) are expected in the ski business due to a reduction in the ski season.

There are a significant number of factors due to climate change, both favorable and unfavorable, affecting human health. Some of them can be direct, for example, deaths due to heat, others indirectly, for example factors associated with changes in ecosystems. Very close estimates suggest that an increase in global average temperature of 2.50 will result in an additional 215,000 deaths per year, mainly in developing countries. In addition, 200 million people will additionally become ill with malaria. According to these estimates, the economic damage will be approximately $ 50 billion.

An increase in air temperature should lead to an increase in the concentration of tropospheric ozone and other harmful gases. Measures to restore air quality at the same level will require about 15 billion dollars a year. Similar measures to restore water quality will require from 15 to 67 billion dollars a year.

Climate change may cause additional migration due to deteriorating living conditions in some regions and improvements in others. Estimates show that migration will be about 1.5% of the world's population, or about 150 million people, which will lead to annual economic losses estimated at several hundred million dollars.

The losses in the ecosystem, both direct and indirect losses can be very significant. For example, a reduction in mangroves may lead to the need to finance additional work to protect the coast. Warming can also cause the loss of many species of animals and plants as physiological reasons, and because of changes in the relationships of various species, for example, in systems of prey-predator, etc. To save the species you will need up to several tens of dollars per individual per year (for example, $ 15 to save one brown bear in Norway). According to some estimates, all this will require about 30 billion dollars a year.

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    • Important topics

    Answering the questions of the Questionnaire, we have once again seen that the problem of “global climate change” (sometimes they say “global warming”) is today considered to be one of the most acute environmental issues  of humanity. What is global climate change and why is it often called “global warming”?

    One cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and it becomes global problem  for all of humanity. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet around this topic are ongoing discussions. Some use the term " global warming"and make apocalyptic forecasts. Others predict the onset of a new" ice age "- and also make apocalyptic forecasts. Still others consider climate change natural, and the evidence of both sides about the inevitability of the catastrophic effects of climate change - controversial ... Let's try to figure it out ...

    What evidence is there of climate change?

    They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable without instruments): an increase in global average temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting of glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and increasingly destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia ... (see also “5 prophecies about climate that have come true”). And in some places, for example, in the Antarctic, a cooling is observed.

    If the climate has changed before, why has it become a problem now?

    Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about the glacial periods (they are small and large), with the global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average global temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that, to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been added, another factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), whose influence on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger with each passing year.

    What are the causes of climate change?

    The main driving force of climate is the sun.  For example, uneven heating of the earth’s surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.

    In addition, the climate is affected by changes in the Earth’s orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. These are all natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, have defined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climate cycles, such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can be attributed to half of the temperature changes before 1950 ( solar Activity  leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic - to decrease).

    Recently, another one has been added to the natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increased greenhouse effect, the effect of which on climate change over the past two centuries is 8 times higher than the effect of changes in solar activity.

    What is the greenhouse effect?

    Greenhouse effect  - this is the delay of the planet’s thermal radiation by the Earth’s atmosphere. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed on the scale of the globe: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the Earth’s surface, but the thermal energy radiated by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth’s atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth’s surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, which have the ability to trap long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.

    Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain, due to the greenhouse effect, the heat balance of the Earth at a level suitable for life. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if its average temperature of the Earth’s surface were 30 ° C lower, i.e. not + 14 ° С, as it is now, but -17 ° С.

    The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten neither the Earth nor humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe it to life.

    But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and disruption of the thermal balance of the Earth. That is what happened in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory pipes and other sources of pollution created by mankind emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

    What gases are called "greenhouse"?

    The most common and common greenhouse gases include water vapor (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed in the process of burning fossil fuels.

    In addition, there are two more groups of direct-acting greenhouse gases, these are carbon carbons and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Their emissions to the atmosphere are associated with modern technology and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration equipment). Their amount in the atmosphere is completely insignificant, but they have an impact on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential / GWP), tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2.

    Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been noted. However, an increase in the temperature of the Earth, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and - to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the flow of energy to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.

    Carbon dioxide is the best-known of greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO 2 are volcanic emissions, the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources are the burning of fossil fuels (including forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, the production of cement, glass). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the "greenhouse effect." The concentration of CO 2 over two centuries of industrialization has increased by more than 30% and is correlated with a change in global average temperature.

    Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. It is released due to leakage in the development of coal and natural gas deposits, from pipelines, during biomass burning, in landfills (as an integral part of biogas), and also in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice growing), etc. Livestock, fertilizer use, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect or global warming potential (GWP) is 21 times stronger than that of CO 2.

    Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its effect is 310 times stronger than that of CO 2, but it is contained in very small amounts in the atmosphere. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as in the production and use of mineral fertilizers and the work of chemical industry enterprises.

    Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. Used mainly in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (emission into the environment) are small, but they increase rapidly.

    Sulfur hexafluoride is its release into the atmosphere associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, but the volume is constantly increasing. Global warming potential is 23900 units.

    What is global warming?

    Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, caused by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

    According to direct climatic observations (changes in temperature over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for this increase are still the subject of debate, but one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the planet’s natural heat balance, increases the greenhouse effect, and as a result, a change in average annual air temperature causes global warming. northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years

    (deviation from the average 1961-1990).

    This process is slow and gradual. Thus, over the past 100 years, the average temperature of the Earth has increased by only 1 o C. It would seem a little. What, then, is causing global concern and forcing many governments to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

    First, this was enough to cause the melting of polar ice and rising sea levels, with all the ensuing consequences.

    And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the melting of permafrost subarctic, huge amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to the melting of the ice will cause a change in the warm current of the Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger change, which in turn will accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction ...

    How strong is the human impact on global warming?

    The idea of ​​a significant contribution of mankind to the greenhouse effect (and hence to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.

    Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere from the pre-industrial period (since 1750) increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it did not reach such a level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly related to the growth of fuel consumption and the development of industry. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide with the graph of growth of temperature.

    Others object: carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the World Ocean 50-60 times more than in the atmosphere. In comparison, the impact of a person is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensates for human exposure.

    Recently, however, more and more facts appear in favor of the influence of human activity on global climate change. Here are some of them.

    § the southern part of the world ocean has lost its ability to absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet

    § the flow of heat coming to Earth from the Sun has been decreasing in the last five years, but there is not cooling but warming on earth ...

    How much will the temperature rise

    According to some climate change scenarios, by the year 2100 the average global temperature may increase by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius - if no steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, periods of hot weather can become longer and more extreme in temperature. At the same time, the development of the situation will vary greatly depending on the region of the Earth, and it is extremely difficult to predict these differences. For example, for Europe they predict at first a not very long period of cooling in connection with a slowdown and a possible change in the course of the Gulf Stream.

    What impact will global warming have on the world?

    · Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitat, as polar ice will disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear, failing to adapt to a rapidly changing habitat. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on earth.

    · Global warming will change the climate globally. Growth in the number of climatic disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a decrease in summer precipitation by 15–20% in the main agricultural areas, rising ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to move to the north.

    · Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of a small ice age. In the 19th century, the eruption of volcanoes was the cause of such a cooling down; in our century, another cause was the desalination of the ocean as a result of the melting of glaciers.

    How will global warming affect a person?

    In the short term: a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to flooding, hurricanes, heat and drought.

    The most serious blow may be inflicted on the poorest countries, which are the least responsible for exacerbating this problem, and who are least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the work of previous generations.

    Destruction of established and customary farming systems under the influence of droughts, irregular precipitation, etc. can really put on the brink of hunger about 600 million people. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to the melting of glaciers and the changing nature of precipitation, an environmental crisis may occur.

    An increase in temperature of 1.5-4.5 ° C will lead to an increase in ocean level of 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the flooding of many small islands and coastal flooding. In areas prone to flooding, there will be about 100 million inhabitants, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).

    The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people may be threatened as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruptions in the plumbing systems), etc.

    In the long run, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when, after the ice age, the temperature rose sharply by 10 ° C, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.

    What we do not know?

    We only know that we know immeasurably little.

    Experts do not have accurate data on the contribution of mankind to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what a chain reaction can be.

    The exact relationship between the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature is also unknown. This is one of the reasons why the forecasts of temperature changes differ so much. And it gives food to skeptics: some scientists find the problem of global warming somewhat exaggerated, as is the data on the rise in average temperature on Earth.

    Scientists have no consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change could be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.

    Some scientists believe that some factors may weaken the effect of global warming: with increasing temperatures, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

    Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are underestimated:

    § droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will occur more often,

    § an increase in the temperature of the world’s ocean also causes an increase in the force of hurricanes,

    § glacier melting rate and sea level rise will also be faster….

    And this is confirmed by the latest research data.

    § Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the melting rate of glaciers has increased by 3 times (ice cover thickness has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of ​​non-flowing ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).

    § It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete extinction, which can result in several times higher sea level rise (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).

    § Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including the World Ocean.

    § And finally, we should not forget that after global warming a global cooling can occur.

    However, whatever the scenario, everything speaks for the fact that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It is better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. He who is warned is armed.

    What measures are being taken to stop global warming?

    The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, agreed to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).

    International agreements

    In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from the 1990 level by 2008–2012, including the European Union should cut greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. It is enough for Russia and Ukraine that their emissions do not exceed the level of 1990, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2.

    For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it is necessary for it to be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. Today, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries of the world (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. The United States and Australia, which made a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol, were a notable exception.

    In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.

    Participation of countries in the Kyoto Protocol.

    Green marks countries that have ratified

    Minutes, yellow signatories and hopes for

    its ratification in the near future,

    red - United States and Australia, refused

    ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

    Here are some of them.

    1. Reduce the burning of fossil fuels

    Today, we get 80% of our energy from fossil fuels, the burning of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.

    2. Increase the use of renewable energy sources.

    Solar and wind energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of mankind.

    3. Stop the destruction of ecosystems!

    Any attacks on intact ecosystems should be stopped. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are important element  in maintaining a CO 2 balance. The forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at a catastrophic speed.

    4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation.

    The transition from large-scale energy (hydro, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over a long distance, up to 50% of energy can be lost on the way!

    5. Use new energy efficient technologies in industry

    Currently, the efficiency of most of the technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy efficient production technologies.

    6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sector.

    Regulations must be adopted that prescribe the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce the energy consumption in houses several times.

    7. New laws and incentives.

    Laws should be enacted that impose higher taxes on enterprises that exceed the limits of CO 2 emissions and provide tax incentives for energy producers from renewable sources and energy-efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these particular technologies and industries.

    8. New ways to move

    Today, in large cities, motor vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. It is necessary to encourage the use of new environmentally friendly modes of transport, to support public transport, to develop infrastructure for cyclists.

    9. Promote and stimulate energy conservation and careful use of natural resources by the inhabitants of all countries.

    These measures will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by developing countries by 30% by 2030.

    Energy saving is the most effective "source" of energy.

    5 climate prophecies that have come true

    Australian climatologist and writer Timm Flannery has compiled a list of climate change prophecies made by different scientists at different times and even in different centuries.

    We present here 5 prophecies that have already come true. This proves that the problem of global warming is not as mythological as it may seem at first glance, and that all people really need to pay attention to it.

    one). More than 100 years ago (in 1893), the Swedish scientist Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius stated: the more we throw carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the more the Earth will warm up. Modern scientific work has proven a directly proportional relationship between CO2 level and temperature on the planet.

    2). The forecast made a hundred years ago, according to which hurricanes will become more powerful, was also justified. There is no need to go far for examples; it suffices to recall the succession of hurricanes that began with Katrina.

    3). James Hansen, a NASA scientist, suggested that the polar ice will quickly melt. Today we really see the melting of glaciers, the thickness of ice in the Arctic has decreased by almost 40%. In addition, there is a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers, a two-week reduction in the annual duration of ice cover of lakes and rivers, the length of snow and ice cover has decreased by 10-15%.

    The Uppsala Glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) was one of the largest glaciers in South America, but now disappears 200 meters a year.

    4) Twenty years ago, the United Nations Climate Research Group announced that, starting in 2000, climate change would be noticeable. And so it happened - it suffices to recall the last hot summer seasons and unusually warm winters.

    five). Another prediction of the 1980s - about raising the level of the ocean, also proved to be reasonable. Today we know that the ocean level in the 20th century rose by 10-20 cm due to thermal expansion of sea waters and the melting of polar ice.

    Chronicles of the planet earth

    My personal contribution to the greenhouse effect (global warming?).

    What do you think, and what is your personal contribution to the greenhouse effect and global climate change? No? But after all, each of us consumes energy, and in everyday consumption, we just convert any form of energy (mainly derived from fossil organic fuel) into heat. What happens at the same time, we have already seen on the experience we have set.

    Task 6. Calculate the family's contribution to the "greenhouse effect."

    Using the data in Table 2 and Table 3, calculate how much coal, oil, and gas you need to burn in order to obtain the electric energy consumed by your family in a year, and how much carbon dioxide will be emitted at the same time. Fill in the data in your family’s Energy Passport

    Table 3.

    When determining the amount of fuel consumed and the amount of carbon dioxide released during this process, use the following formulas:

    For oil and coal -

    For natural gas -

    Note. If you have a car, then calculate and add to the total contribution of your family the amount of carbon dioxide that is released when your car burns fuel.

    12 simple ways to reduce your own contribution to the greenhouse effect.

    If you do not believe in the prophecies about global warming or are not completely convinced of the significance of the contribution of humanity to climate change, then it may be an argument for you that using these simple methods will have a positive effect on your financial situation, not to mention feeling self-importance, which arises when you are busy with really big and useful work. Plus, clean air has not hurt anyone.

    We have already found out that industry, in the face of plants, factories, etc., makes an enormous contribution to environmental pollution and the greenhouse effect, but this contribution fades compared with what comes from us, inhabitants of the planet Earth. After all, in the end, it is for our sake that all these enterprises are trying to ensure our consumer ability. Had we been more restrained in our desires, and would we have been more reasonable about resources, there would have been no global warming at this point.

    So, here are the simple ways, the implementation of which will not harm your well-being, but will make you more economical and at the same time help the climate to pull itself together.

    one). Get as much information about global warming as possible: awareness is the key to success. You can not fight without knowing your "enemy" in the face. Determine how important climate change is for you. Do you believe in it or not? If yes, then determine for yourself what is the cause. And make your own decision.

    2). Turn off the TV, lights and other electrical devices when not using them. It seems natural, but at a huge number of people the light of the house burns round the clock. The only thing that is required from you is good memory  and an extra few seconds to perform simple operations. But by doing so, you will not badly reduce energy consumption, and fuel costs (and, consequently, the amount of harmful emissions and greenhouse gases).

    3). Make the most of natural light.

    4). Replace your old bulbs with fluorescent, energy-saving, they consume 5 times less energy, maintaining the level of illumination, and, moreover, serve 10 times longer.

    five). If possible, use natural methods of ventilation instead of air conditioning. Check the thermal insulation of the room, keep the desired temperature in a natural way.

    6). Save water, eliminate malfunctions that cause it to leak, do not leave the faucet turned on unnecessarily. Purification of wastewater and their further distribution requires high energy costs.

    7). Try to purchase Class A household appliances (in terms of energy efficiency) that meet the Energy Star standard. All the largest companies in the world are trying to get this approval.

    eight). Reuse Do not use disposable tableware and packaging. They are usually made of paper or plastic. Thus, reduce deforestation and oil consumption. Go to the store with your own package.

    9). Recycling. A good idea is to sort the garbage and what is suitable - to pass for recycling. Melting aluminum cans requires much less energy than making new ones.

    ten). Disable the screensaver on your computer, even if instead of it after 5 minutes there will be just a black screen. Use the display off and standby after a long (more than 20 minutes) idle.

    eleven). Try to keep accounts and correspondence on-line. Thereby you will reduce the emissions arising during mail traffic and save several trees.

    12). And of course you walk more or ride a bike. You should not get behind the wheel to drive 500 meters.

    World energy resources.

    Global climate change is just one of the global energy challenges. Another problem that is becoming more acute with each passing year is the depletion of energy resources or the energy crisis. Evidence of this is the rise in oil prices, wars and conflicts that flare up over access to energy resources (for example, the US oil war against Iraq or the "gas" conflict between Russia and Ukraine). Actually, the whole history of civilization is a struggle for access to energy resources. For the one who controls energy, he has the power.

    The way out of this sequence of wars for energy is very simple - it is necessary to introduce more widely the use of such energy sources that are (a) unlimited and (b) are accessible to everyone. For example, solar energy. She enters the Earth in huge quantities, but it is dispersed, and no one person can fully take control of it. The use of solar energy does not lead to centralization and accumulation of power, as is the case with large CHP, hydro and nuclear power plants. It is possible that the link between power and control over energy sources is one of the main reasons why solar energy is still so little used ..

    So, contributing to the conservation of energy and the promotion of alternative energy sources, you contribute to the struggle for peace.

    According to expert estimates, global coal resources are 15, and according to unofficial data 30 trillion tons, oil - 300 billion tons, gas - 220 trillion cubic meters. Explored coal reserves are 1,685 billion tons, oil - 137 billion tons, gas - 142 trillion cubic meters. There is a point of view that in the current situation of coal reserves will be enough for about 270 years, oil for 35-40 years, gas for 50 years.

    45% of the world's reserves of natural gas, 13% of oil, 23% of coal, 14% of uranium are concentrated on the territory of Russia. Such reserves of fuel and energy resources can provide the country's demand for heat and electricity for hundreds of years. However, their distribution is uneven, and their use is associated with irretrievable losses of fuel and energy resources (up to 50%), pollution of the environment and threatens an environmental catastrophe in the places of extraction and production of fuel and energy resources. About 22-25 million people live in areas of autonomous power supply or unreliable centralized power supply, occupying more than 70% of the territory of Russia.


    The greenhouse effect - the rise in temperature on the surface of the planet as a result of thermal energy, which appears in the atmosphere due to the heating of gases. The main gases that lead to the greenhouse effect on Earth are water vapor and carbon dioxide.

    The phenomenon of the greenhouse effect allows you to maintain a temperature on the surface of the Earth at which life can occur and develop. If the greenhouse effect were absent, the average temperature of the surface of the globe would be much lower than it is now. However, as the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, the atmospheric impermeability to infrared rays increases, which leads to an increase in the temperature of the Earth.

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the most authoritative international body of thousands of scientists from 130 countries - presented its Fourth Assessment Report, which contained general conclusions about past and present climate changetheir impact on nature and man, as well as possible measures to counter such changes.

    According to published data, for the period from 1906 to 2005, the average temperature of the Earth rose to 0.74 degrees. In the next 20 years, the temperature rise, according to experts, will average 0.2 degrees per decade, and by the end of the XXI century, the Earth’s temperature may rise from 1.8 to 4.6 degrees (this difference in data is the result of superimposing a whole set of future climate, which took into account various scenarios for the development of the world economy and society).

    According to scientists, with a 90 percent chance of the observed climate change associated with human activity - burning carbon fossil fuels (ie, oil, gas, coal, etc.), industrial processes, as well as the reduction of forests - natural absorbers of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere .

    Possible effects of climate change:

    1. The change in the frequency and intensity of precipitation.

    In general, the climate on the planet will become more humid. But precipitation will not spread evenly across the earth. In regions that already receive enough rainfall today, their precipitation will become more intense. And in regions with insufficient moisture, dry periods will become more frequent.

    2. Sea level rise.

    During the twentieth century, the average sea level rose by 0.1-0.2 m. According to scientists, for the XXI century sea level rise will be up to 1 m. In this case, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable. Such states as the Netherlands, Great Britain, as well as the small island states of Oceania and the Caribbean will be the first to be in danger of flooding. In addition, high tides will become more frequent, coastal erosion will intensify.

    3. The threat to ecosystems and biodiversity.

    There are predictions of extinction of up to 30 40% of plant and animal species, since their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.

    When the temperature rises by 1 degree, a change in the species composition of the forest is predicted. Forests are a natural carbon reservoir (80% of all carbon in the earth’s vegetation and about 40% of carbon in the soil). The transition from one type of forest to another will be accompanied by the release of large amounts of carbon.

    4. Melting glaciers.

    The modern glaciation of the Earth can be considered one of the most sensitive indicators of the ongoing global change. Satellite data show that since the 1960s, there has been a decrease in snow cover by about 10%. Since the 1950s, the area of ​​sea ice has decreased by almost 10-15% in the Northern Hemisphere, and the thickness has decreased by 40%. Experts predict the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg), after 30 years the Arctic Ocean during the warm period of the year will be completely opened from under the ice.

    According to scientists, the Himalayan ice layer is melting at a speed of 10-15 m per year. With the current speed of these processes, two-thirds of the glaciers will disappear by 2060, and by 2100 all glaciers will melt completely.

    Accelerated melting of glaciers creates a series of immediate threats to human development. For densely populated mountainous and foothill areas, avalanches, flooding or, conversely, a decrease in the flow of rivers, and, as a result, a reduction in fresh water, are particularly dangerous.

    5. Agriculture.

    The impact of warming on agricultural productivity is ambiguous. In some areas with a temperate climate, yields may increase in the case of a slight increase in temperature, but decrease in the case of significant temperature changes. In tropical and subtropical regions, overall yields are projected to decline.

    The worst blows can be dealt to the poorest countries, the least prepared to adapt to climate change. According to the IPCC, by 2080, the number of people facing the threat of hunger could increase by 600 million, which is twice the number of people who now live in poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.

    6. Water consumption and water supply.

    One of the consequences of climate change may be a shortage of drinking water. In regions with arid climate (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation is further aggravated by a decrease in precipitation.

    Due to the melting of glaciers, the runoff of the largest water arteries of Asia - Brahmaputra, Ganga, Yellow River, Indus, Mekong, Saluen and Yangtze, is significantly reduced. The lack of fresh water will affect not only people's health and agricultural development, but also increase the risk of political disagreements and conflicts over access to water resources.

    7. Human health.

    Climate change, according to scientists, will lead to increased risks to human health, especially of the less well-off segments of the population. So, reducing food production will inevitably lead to malnutrition and hunger. Abnormally high temperatures can exacerbate cardiovascular, respiratory and other diseases.

    An increase in temperature can lead to a change in the geographical distribution of various species that are carriers of diseases. With an increase in temperature, the ranges of heat-loving animals and insects (for example, encephalitic ticks and malaria mosquitoes) will spread to the north, while the people inhabiting these territories will not be immune to new diseases.

    According to environmentalists, mankind is unlikely to prevent completely predictable climate change. However, it is in human power to mitigate climate change, restrain the pace of temperature growth in order to avoid dangerous and irreversible consequences in the future. First of all, due to:

    1. Limitations and reductions in the consumption of fossil carbon fuels (coal, oil, gas);

    2. Improving energy efficiency;

    3. Implementation of energy saving measures;

    4. Wider use of non-carbon and renewable energy sources;

    5. Development of new environmentally friendly and low carbon technologies;

    6. Through the prevention of forest fires and forest restoration, as forests are natural absorbers of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

    The greenhouse effect takes place not only on Earth. Strong greenhouse effect - on the next planet, Venus. The atmosphere of Venus is almost entirely composed of carbon dioxide, and as a result the surface of the planet is heated to 475 degrees. Climatologists believe that the Earth has avoided such a fate due to the presence of oceans on it. Oceans absorb atmospheric carbon, and it accumulates in rocks, such as limestone — through which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. There are no oceans on Venus, and all the carbon dioxide that volcanoes emit into the atmosphere remains there. As a result, there is an uncontrollable greenhouse effect on the planet.

    It turns out that thanks for the emergence of life on Earth, we need the greenhouse effect and nitrogen in particular. The thing is that once, about 4.5 billion years ago, the young Earth did not have the Moon and was poorly heated by the young dim Sun.

    According to the calculations of scientists, then our planet received solar heat by 20-30% less than today, and if it were not for the greenhouse effect, the chances of the origin of life would be very small.

    However, life arose, and it arose due to the greenhouse effect. Scientists have long known that it was formed from certain gases in the atmosphere, but what the main gas was involved in creating the greenhouse effect on only the nascent Earth was a mystery for a long time.

    And recently, as a result of computer modeling, scientists obtained new data, which allowed to state that it was nitrogen. Although nitrogen is not a greenhouse gas, nevertheless, its high content in the atmosphere creates excessive pressure, due to which the lower layers of air become denser, retaining heat. It was in this way that the temperature maintained on Earth was sufficient for the emergence of life at the time when the sun was dim.

    Earlier, Russian scientists have refuted the hypothesis that earthly life appeared in the ocean. According to researchers, the presence of sodium salts in ocean water is an obstacle to the emergence of life. And sodium detrimental effect on the metabolic protein processes necessary for cell nucleation.

    In order for these processes to start, another element is needed - potassium. And it is in clay compounds. Such compounds could appear in accumulations of fresh water, for example, in puddles, lakes. Moreover, according to religious beliefs, man is made of clay. Scientists also suggest the cosmic origin of the first cells.

    Global should be called such processes, technological, natural, cultural, socio-economic, - which qualitatively transformed all of humanity or influenced large regions of the Earth and entire historical epochs. Global sociologists call them because, firstly, their development knows no national boundaries, takes place in various societies, localized in different parts of the planet, approximately according to the same laws and with the same consequences, and secondly, these consequences affect life only humanity itself, but also its natural environment 1. These include climate change.

    Regarding the role of geography and climate, two opposing positions have been formed. According to one, there is no influence of the geographical environment on society; according to another, the geographical environment determines the course of development of the historical process. The last approach was called geographical determinism.

    The question of the influence of the geographic environment on the physical type, customs, customs, form of government, the level of cultural and economic development of peoples has been interested in people for a long time. Jean Voden in his work Methods of Easy Knowledge of History (1566) argued that society is formed exclusively or mainly under the influence of the natural environment. Charles Louis Montesquieu (1689-1755) in his work “On the Spirit of Laws” developed ideas about the influence of geographical conditions and climate on people's lives, customs and customs of nations, on the establishment of economies and even the political system of different countries. The English historian Henry Thomas Bockle (1821–1862), who wrote the multivolume History of Civilization in England, considered that the development of society is just as natural a process as the development of nature, but more complex and diverse. Exaggerating the influence of geographic conditions as an incentive for social development, Buckle, however, emphasized that the level achieved

    1 See: Anurin V.F.Fundamentals of sociological knowledge: A course of lectures on general sociology. N. Novgorod, 1998.

    economic well-being depends not on the goodness of nature, but on the energy of people, which is limitless compared to the limited and stable natural resources, as well as on the balance of power between classes of workers and non-workers. One of his followers, the German geographer and ethnographer F. Ratzel (1844-1904), put forward seven laws of the spatial growth of the state, arguing that the people needed new lands to increase their numbers. Moreover, the highest vocation of the people is to improve their position. He is considered the founder of geopolitics.

    Human history is a clear example of how the environmental conditions and the outlines of the surface of the planet contributed to or, on the contrary, hindered the development of humanity. If in the Far North man has wrested the means of existence from the inhospitable harsh nature at the cost of painful efforts, in the tropics the unbridled pomp of nature leads man, as a child, on the damp side and does not make his development a natural necessity. The geographic environment as a condition for the economic activity of a society may have a certain impact on the economic specialization of countries and regions.

    The geographical environment — the terrestrial environment of human society (the crust of the earth, the lower part of the atmosphere, water, soil and soil cover, flora and fauna) —and the global climate have a colossal influence on the development of society. Each society transforms the geographic environment, using the achievements of previous eras, and, as it were, passes it on to future generations, transforming the wealth of natural resources into means of cultural and historical life. The immeasurable amount of human labor is spent on the transformation of nature, and all this work, according to D.I. Pisarev, laid in the ground, as in a huge savings bank. The man cut down forests for agricultural land, drained swamps, piled dams, founded villages and cities, braided the continents with a dense network of roads and did many other things. Man not only moved various species of plants and animals to other climatic conditions, but also changed them.

    Science has long abandoned the idea of ​​the immutability of geographical conditions even in a relatively short period covered by written sources, i.e. about 3 thousand years. Indeed, the Mediterranean basin had a stable climate during this time, but this is a special case, and not a general rule. But the climatic conditions in the center of the Eurasian continent have changed very much 2. It is enough to note that the level of the Caspian Sea

      2 Gumilev L.N.Place of historical geography in oriental studies // Peoples of Asia and Africa. 1970. No. I. P. 85-94.

    in the VI. stood at an absolute mark - minus 34 m, at the beginning of the XIV century. - minus 19 m, and now - about minus 28 m. The powerful transgression of the XIII century, when the Caspian Sea rose by 15 m, very sharply responded to the fate of the Khazars, and therefore the countries bordering it. Most of the fertile land that fed the Khazar people was under water. The historical conditions for the emergence of Chinese civilization are also very different from the modern ones 5.

    The history of civilization knows many examples in the past, when changing climatic conditions catastrophically affected the fate of many countries and peoples. During periods of adverse climatic conditions, the world grain reserves decreased from 20 to 5-10%, and the cost of grain increased several times. If in the 1960s. the loss of the world community from adverse climatic conditions amounted to several billion dollars, now they have increased by an order of magnitude. The climate limits the development possibilities not only of individual branches of the economy, but also of the territory as a whole. Elise Reclus, a famous French geographer and sociologist, believed that territories with an average annual temperature below - 2 ° С or located at an altitude of more than 2000 m above sea level are practically unsuitable for living. V.V. Klimenko, on the basis of this criterion, determined that in Russia only a little more than 5 million square meters. km, i.e. less than 30% of the country's area can be considered an “effective territory”. According to his calculations, the level of energy consumption can serve as an indicator of “overcoming” the cold and in order to achieve the standard of living of developed countries in Russia it is necessary to spend per capita much more fuel - compared to Japan, for example, 8–9 times 4.

    Scientists continue to argue whether human evolution, its anatomy and the society it created are the result of skillful adaptation to changes in climate and habitat, or, conversely, it is the result of combating these factors, the response of man to the challenge of nature. The first point of view received abroad the name of the Pleistocene hypothesis ( Pleistocene hypothesis),the second is a hypothesis of revolutionary break (revolutionary breakthrough hypothesis) 5 ".Both describe an adaptation / coping strategy.

    3 Kryukov M.V.Yin civilization and the p. Yellow River // Bulletin of the history of world culture. 1966.№4.

    4 Kjiumchko V.Energy, climate and historical perspective of Russia // Social sciences and modernity. 1997. № 1; Klimenko V.Russia: a dead end at the end of the tunnel? // Social Sciences and Modernity. 1997. № 5; Kshmenko V.V.The influence of climatic and geographical conditions on the level of energy consumption // Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 1994. T. 339. № 3. S. 319-332.

    5 See: Richerson Peter J., Boyd R.The Pleistocene and the Origins of Human Culture: Built for Speed. Mexico.1998.

    climate caused by intermittent glaciation and warming of the Earth.

    The history of mankind takes place against the background of a constantly changing geographic environment. Glacial epochs have amazing periodicity. The end of the last ice age is almost in the memory of mankind. And the transition from the Holocene maximum to the small ice age occurred only hundreds of years ago and changed the entire history of the development of America: during the period of the development of the Scandinavians of Greenland, the latter justified its name (Greenland (English) -green land), and if the climatic conditions of that era were preserved, it would become the base of America’s colonization 6.

    For most of the geological time, the climate on Earth was warmer and more homogeneous than today. The first serious cold snap occurred 35 million years ago in the Antarctic. Large decreases in the Earth's temperature were noted 14 and 11 million years ago, and then repeated in northern latitudes 3.2 million years ago. The last glaciation, especially severe, coincided with the appearance of man. From this point on, the planet is in a period of constant climate fluctuations 7. Thus, the mean global temperature in the era of dinosaurs (the Cretaceous, from 140 to 66 million years ago) was 10-15 ° C higher than today. Geochemists have calculated that this corresponds to an excess of C0 2 in the atmosphere by 4-8 times as compared with that observed today 8.

    A record increase in temperature in recent years (2001 was the third warmest year, and 1998 an absolute record holder) forced scientists to suggest that greenhouse gases heat our planet faster than expected. Moreover, researchers from NASA's Earth Policy Institute have suggested that the rate of temperature increase is increasing. The average temperature on the earth's surface in 2002 was the meteorological year of 14.6 ° C, compared with the long-term average of 14 ° C. In 2001, this figure was 14.5 ° C, and in 1998 - 14.7 ° C, which was the highest since the beginning of observations at the end of the 19th century. The chain of warm years is especially significant if we take into account

    6 See: Kostitsyn V.A.(afterword NN Moiseev). The evolution of the atmosphere, biosphere and climate. M, 1984. P. 83.

    7 For more details, see: The Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern. 6th ed. / Ed. byPeter N. Stearns. Boston, 2001.

    s See: Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report: Trans. from English / Ed. J. Leggett. M., 1993. p. 27.

    mania climate events occurring at this time. In 1998, the unusual heat is partly explained by the arrival of El Nino, who heated the waters of the Pacific Ocean. But in 2001, the opposite happened - La Nina, which may have prevented temperatures from rising even higher that year (NTR.ru. 11.02.2003).

    The most ancient human ancestors, who lived from 7 to 4 million years ago, still managed to catch a relatively warm climate. African savannas, the ancestral home of humanity and almost all primates, were abundant in food and vegetation.

    Approximately 2-1.5 million years ago, when the geological epoch of the Pleistocene began, which continues to this day, there was a very strong cooling on the planet. This epoch, called the Great Ice Age (Great Ice Age)or the great glaciation, scientists consider the most important event in the recent physical history of the Earth 9.

      Climate shocks of the Pleistocene had a negative impact on the flora and fauna of the northern continents. As glaciers advanced, the climate barrier of life moved away to the south (sometimes dropping to 40 ° N and below), vegetation also retreated to the south. This happened before, but the previous great glaciation ended 250 million years ago. And here are new tests for the inhabitants of the planet, this time coinciding with the birth Homo sapiens.

    Similar processes, like a bulldozer rolling on the surface of the planet, leveled and changed the geolandscape. For example, a change in temperature 14 million years ago led to the drift of entire continents. The landscape was influenced not only by glaciation, but also by the warming that followed it. With each retreat of the ice, the forests returned to their original territories. Since then, the temperature of the atmosphere continually fluctuated between warm and very cold. Over the last million years there have been at least six glacial and interglacial periods. As the temperature decreased, elevated places formed   snowfields and glaciers that did not melt in summer. Under their own weight, they crawled from the mountains into the valleys, and over time, vast areas of the northern and southern hemisphere turned out to be under ice. At some moments, the ice crust covered over 45 million square meters. km of land In Europe, glaciation reached southern England, Holland, the Harz and the Carpathians, in Central Russia to the valleys of the Don and the Dnieper.

      9 N.N. LambClimatic History and the Future. Princeton, 1977.

    Cooling led to the formation of well-defined climatic zones, or belts (arctic, temperate and tropical), passing through all continents. The territory of the modern temperate belt has become the Arctic several times. Glacier had a huge impact on the development of life, including the evolution of primates and the emergence of man. During this period, culture and human vital activity play such an important role that the entire Quaternary system is also designated as an anthropogen, i.e. "The age of man."

    For a long time, the northern part of Europe and America was covered with a thick layer of glacier, which began to recede 15 thousand years ago.

    The world ocean level was then 300 feet (1 foot = 30.48 cm) lower than the modern one. Cold breath penetrated even into Africa, and in those days the Sahara was covered not with sand, but with tropical forests. Interglacial periods were characterized by warming, often more significant than today. A major cold snap happened 75 thousand years ago, when America was not yet settled, and Neanderthal penetrated into Europe from Africa. After a short moderate period of 40 thousand years ago, the cold again intensified and lasted until the time of 18 thousand years ago. The gradual improvement of the climate began 15 thousand years ago, and in the 6th millennium BC. global climate has reached modern levels 10.

    The Würm Ice Age ended in Europe about 17–12 thousand years ago with the melting of the ice cover in northern Europe (Scotland, Scandinavia, northern Germany and Russia). With the retreat of ice, the vegetation of the steppe and tundra began to be used for pasture by reindeer and other herbivores, which gradually moved northward. People also began to move north, following their prey. Unstated animals, forests, shrubs appear in southwestern Europe. With the departure of big game, the inhabitants of western Europe were forced to resort to greater diversity in food. When replacing a farm based on the consumption of large game, for 5 thousand years, when the glacier retreated, a kind of more flexible adaptation developed. The water released during the melting of the glacier led to an increase in the level of the World Ocean. Today, on most coasts there is a shallow water zone called the continental shelf. Behind it, the depth gradually increases up to a sharp transition to the deep water, which is called the continental slope. In the era of glaciers, so much water has frozen that most of the continental shelves are exposed. The land stretched to the continental slope. The waters that began in this zone were deep, cold and dark. Few marine organisms could exist in such an inhospitable environment. "

    10 For more details, see: The Encyclopedia of World History ...

    1 " Kottak C.P.Anthropology. The Exploration of Human Diversity. N.Y., 1994. p. 187-188.

    How did people adapt to the environment in southwestern Europe at the end of the ice age? With the rise in sea level, more favorable conditions were created for the development of marine life in the shallower warmer coastal zone. The number and variety of fish that a person could consume in writing has increased dramatically. Moreover, now that rivers have flowed into the ocean more smoothly, fish like salmon could climb European rivers to spawn. Flocks of birds nesting in the coastal swamps migrated throughout Europe in winter. Even the inhabitants of non-coastal areas of Europe could take advantage of new favorable conditions, such as the migration of birds and the spring spawning of fish, which filled the rivers in the region of southwestern France.

    Sharp fluctuations global climate  mean abrupt change flora and fauna. A person is not able to change his biology after climate as many species of animals do, therefore he reacts by changing social skills. “All the advantages and traditions of group lifestyles, acquired in long-term stable conditions, in extreme conditions (extremely harsh), turn out to be meaningless. Food is sorely lacking, the struggle for it is hardening. Groups disintegrate, individuals move to an individual lifestyle, uniting only for sexual relationships. Survive the most hardy individuals. Endurance presupposes an advantage in the psyche (to seek, not to give up and not share prey), relative brain volume (to find and get close), and strength (to seize and not to yield). All these behavioral features are combined by the concept zoological individualism.Its main meaning is that physiologically absolutely adapted individuals tend to individualism and resort to group lifestyle only to the extent that ecology dictates it ”12.

    It is believed that cyclical climate change, occurring at intervals of tens of thousands of years, played a significant role in the evolution and distribution of all species, including humans. During periods of cooling, the mass of continental glaciers grew, the climatic zones shifted to the south, the level of the sea and lakes decreased by a hundred meters (as the water went to the glaciers); the area of ​​deserts increased, tropical forests decreased 13.

    Global climate change affects the migration and relocation of large masses of people. At the end of the ice age (about 10 thousand years ago), the climatic conditions in Europe changed dramatically: the air temperature on the continent increased by an average of 7 ° C. Vast territories liberated from beneath the ice were inhabited by people - in particular, high mountain valleys in the Pyrenees and Alps. Natural conditions and way of life of the primitive

    12 Apekseev V.M.Physical principles of anthroposociogenesis (2001). - http://valexeev.narod.ru/deml.htm.

    13 Our history recorded in DNA // Nature. 2001. No. 6.

    people changed so dramatically that historians called this period the “neolithic revolution”. With the development of primitive communities, the first settlements appeared, people moved from nomadic to sedentary lifestyle, from hunting, fishing and gathering berries to cultivating the land, raising cattle and pottery.

    The life of primitive people depended to a great extent on external natural, even climatic conditions, on the abundance or scarcity of prey, on

    random luck; success was replaced by periods of hunger, mortality was very high, especially among children and the elderly. For example, the civilizations of ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and India arose in the valleys of large rivers, where irrigated farming systems were possible. For the most ancient civilizations, water was both a source of life and a cause of misfortunes:

      people had to constantly tackle two of the most difficult tasks: dealing with drought, creating powerful irrigation systems, and preventing floods, building dams and shelters. The creation of the first canals, earthen dams and dams on the Yangtze, Nile, Tigre and Euphrates played a decisive role in the emergence of societies. The German historian Karl Witfogel introduced the concept of "hydraulic civilizations" - the historical and sociological designation of the first states of the Ancient East.

    A radical transformation of the habitat has been going on all over the planet. Monumental irrigation facilities were built on the Dnieper, Nile, Mississippi, Amazon and many other rivers. The most active work took place in the United States: from 1916 to 1988, the Americans built 75 thousand dams (of which 2,654 were large), thousands of power stations, countless canals, dams, artificial reservoirs, and hundreds of thousands of kilometers of pipelines from rivers to cities and farms. Together, this led to the fact that almost every kilometer of large and small rivers was put at the service of civilization 14.

    As a result, the irrigation projects of the last century surpassed everything that ever existed in history together 15. People created a habitat, it turned them into a society 16.

    True, the built environment has not always promoted progress. Thus, salinization or flooding of irrigated land has sometimes been the cause of the death of local civilizations. Today there is more evidence that the last floods have become so catastrophic because of the actions of people. It has been proved, for example, that a change in the river beds, the construction of dams, and the destruction of forests lead to floods. All the dead civilizations left behind a desert. They destroyed the soil and biosphere 17.

    14 See: Status and Trends of the Nation "s Biological Resources // United States Geological Survey, 1998. Vol. I.

    15 Worster D.Rivers of Empire. Oxford, 1985.

    16 Pechersk M.Civilization and nature: Water // Intellectual forum. 2002. Vol. 11. - if.russ.ru/2002/11/20021224_pch.html.

    17 Pushkarev B.S.Russia and the experience of the West: Selected articles 1955-1995. M., 1995. S. 33-34.

    The countdown of historical time on the territory of the present European part of Russia begins two thousand years later than in the Mediterranean, because here the glacier retreated later and the warming began. The climatic conditions in the Amazon jungle, the Volga and Rhine basins are different than in the north of Russia or in Alaska; this left its mark on the differences of local historical cycles in these territories ls.

    Russia found itself in not very favorable climatic conditions. It is located in the so-called zone of risky farming. Here, periodically, once every 4-5 years, the crop perished almost completely due to weather conditions. The reason was the early frosts, prolonged rains, in the south - drought, locust invasions. This gave rise to insecurity of existence, the threat of constant hunger, accompanying the entire history of Russia, Russia.

    The duration of the work cycle is its enormous energy consumption. If in Iceland, the average annual air temperature is 0.9 ° C and about 9 tons of reference fuel per year is needed per inhabitant, then on average around the world it is 5.5 ° C and 3 tons of reference fuel per year, respectively. Russia is the coldest country in the world. From here and some features of national character: special diligence, diligence, patience of the Russian peasant. Hot temper, unsociable steppnyak, hunting for change of places are alien to him.

    For the last 300 years, the Earth’s atmosphere has noticeably warmer. And this is a completely natural process. There were periods when the climate was even warmer than today, and therefore there was more carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. However, it was only in the last 100 years that human influence was added to the action of natural forces, which intensified the global warming trend. Worse, in the last 20-30 years, emissions of human waste products not only became equal, but also exceeded carbon dioxide emissions from the entire flora and fauna of the planet (in scientific language they are called bio-one). According to Russian, French and American researchers, the level of gases that create the greenhouse effect in the Earth’s atmosphere is currently the highest in the last 420 thousand years. American experts from the University of Arizona found that three years of the last decade of the 20th century. turned out to be the warmest in the last 600 years. Scientists have found: the overwhelming majority of the time the cyclones of warming and cooling remained unchanged. Failure occurred when the era of industrialization began. This information leaves no doubt that the current state of the atmosphere is out of the general climatic rhythm of the planet. The content of carbon dioxide and methane in our time, respectively, 30 and 100% higher than in the pre-industrial era 19.

    18 Yakovets Yu.V.Cycles Crises Forecasts. M, 1999. S. 230-241.

    19 Sustainable development. - http://ecoasia.ecolink.ru/data/2002.HTM/000155.HTM.

    The conclusion about global warming is confirmed by the data of direct meteorological measurements, which have been continuously carried out for the last 100-30 years. And although in each decade both abnormally warm and abnormally cold years fall, the average temperature stubbornly creeps up. Usually, the so-called greenhouse effect is commemorated to explain this. The data of meteorological observations and geothermal measurements in deep wells convincingly testify to the current climate warming. For the north of Russia, it is estimated at 0.2-2.5 ° C for 1965-1995. It is estimated that the temperature on Earth will rise by 0.5–2 ° C over the next 50 years.

    Russian climatologist N.I. Back in 1962, Budyko hypothesized that the burning of a huge amount of various fuels, especially increased in the second half of the 20th century, would inevitably lead to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And he delays the return of the sun and deep heat from the surface of the Earth into space, which will lead to the effect that we observe in greenhouses. Conclusions Budyko interested American meteorologists. They checked his calculations and empirically confirmed them.

    The physical essence of this phenomenon is as follows: the Earth receives energy from the Sun mainly in the visible part of the spectrum, and itself, being a much colder body, radiates mainly infrared rays into outer space. However, many gases contained in its atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen, etc. - transparent to visible rays, but actively absorb infrared, thereby retaining in the atmosphere of the heat, which would have to be carried into space.

    The “greenhouse effect” did not appear today - it existed since our planet acquired the atmosphere, and without it the temperature of the surface layers of this atmosphere would be on average 30 ° C lower than observed. However, in the last 100-150 years, the content of some "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere has greatly increased: carbon dioxide - more than a third, methane - 2.5 times. New, previously simply non-existent substances with a “greenhouse” absorption spectrum appeared — primarily chlorine and fluorocarbon species, including the notorious freons. From the fires of primitive hunters to modern gas stoves and cars, our civilization acts as a powerful, but very antediluvian factory, emitting CO into the atmosphere. An increase in the methane content (rice fields, livestock, leaks from wells and gas pipelines) and nitrogen oxides, not to mention organochlorine 20, is also associated with human activity. The content of greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, etc. - is steadily increasing. True, the reverse process also works - the process of photosynthesis, in which plants absorb carbon dioxide from the air and build their biomass from it. Scientists estimate that in a year all the land vegetation catches 20-30 billion tons of carbon in the form of dioxide from the atmosphere.

    It is known that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases can cause global warming and, therefore, an increase in the level.

    2 (1 What is this going on with the weather? - http://wwf.ru/climate/whatjiappen.html.

    on, in particular the flooding of Bangladesh and the island States. Global warming is dangerous not only by a shift in average annual temperatures, but also by an increase and increase in extreme weather events 21.

    Global warming, according to the overwhelming majority of experts, is caused by global emissions of greenhouse gases from thermal power plants and motor vehicles to the atmosphere. Under these conditions, only the advanced development of alternative energy sources will be able to change the deteriorating state of the environment. According to New york times"Global warming, which until recently had only worried nature, worried corporations and investors with billions in losses." Huge greenhouse gas emissions reduce rainfall in Asia, which could lead to a 10% reduction in rice harvest in India. The floods that caused enormous damage to Western Europe were unusually high fever  of air. Adding to this unusually cold summer in Siberia, floods and hurricanes in the Far East, one can get an idea of ​​the global damage that is caused by climate warming. According to the German insurance company Munich Re,the costs associated with global warming by 2050 will amount to more than 300 billion dollars a year due to damage from environmental pollution and other reasons 22.

    In 2001, the United Nations published a report on global climate change, which is awaiting our planet in the near future. According to this forecast, the average temperature will rise by 1.4-5.8 "C. For warmth, southern countries will most likely have negative consequences: for example, in Kazakhstan they expect that in the middle of the XXI century, the yield of spring wheat will decrease by 40%, the water potential will 20-30% 23. One can also expect a loss of livestock productivity, a decrease in forest cover, a reduction in pasture area, and a deterioration in the health of people due to increased heat stress in the southern regions.

    As research shows, global warming may in the future bring a number of significant benefits for Russia. 24 This data

    21 Zhukov B.Warmer, warmer, hotter ... // Results. 1999. No. 49 (184). Pp. 54-63.

    22 Nuclear energy development ... - http://stra.teg.ni/lenta/energy/6/.

    23 Sustainable development.

    24 The impact of global climate change on the functioning of the main sectors of the economy and the health of the Russian population. M, 2001.

    destroying the deliberately incorrect and tendentious ideas about the universal negativity of global warming. Any manifestation of global warming significantly depends on geographic location.

    relevant regions and the specifics of their economy. Since Russia is the coldest country in the world, climate warming will only bring it closer to other countries. Global warming can significantly benefit energy, agriculture and forestry, although for some regions of the country the influence can be negative. In itself, warming will have a positive impact on the health of Russians. According to the results of 10 years of research, scientists came to the conclusion that the overall effect of global warming on the socio-economic situation in Russia is positive.

    It is possible that global warming will allow to solve some regional contradictions. For example, while the vast unused mineral reserves of our country are located in Siberia and in the north, the bulk of the population lives in the middle lane and in the south. There, the population density often exceeds 200 people per 1 square. km, and in the north it decreases to 1 -2 people and even less. The North occupies 27% of the territory of the European part of Russia, but no more than 2% of the population lives here. This disproportion creates economic difficulties. For the development of the northern natural wealth people need. In the development of the northern regions, the government has to invest billions of dollars in funds, and people take root there with difficulty, travel reluctantly and only for big money.

    Climate has a major impact on human anatomy and biology. Our body is quite plastic, it is able to adapt to external conditions, to acclimatize. Here is an example: in the south, an excess of sunlight, to protect against them, the skin cells of the indigenous people of Africa contain a special dark pigment melanin, it absorbs the sun's rays and protects other cells from sun damage. Residents of the south have thinner and long legs, relatively small body size and, most of all, a thin subcutaneous fat layer. Such anatomical features of the body contribute to greater heat transfer, increase resistance to elevated temperature. The aborigines of the north also have their adaptive features, but already to the cold climate. Here you rarely see a tall, thin man with underdeveloped musculature. The northerners, as a rule, have shorter limbs, a more massive trunk.

    The global influence of climate scientists explain the emergence of human races. The results of comparative studies of DNA of different populations

    lectures modern people allowed to suggest that even before leaving Africa, about 60-70 thousand years ago, the ancestral population of people

    divided into three groups, which gave rise to three races: African, Asian and European 25.

    Racial symptoms arose as an adaptation to habitat conditions. This applies at least to the color of the skin of different races, i.e. to one of the most significant racial traits for most people. The degree of pigmentation in humans is genetically defined, and, probably, in each population, it corresponds to the geographical latitude. Pigmentation provides protection from the damaging effects of solar radiation, but should not prevent the generation of a minimum dose of radiation   for example, for the formation of certain vitamins that prevent rickets and are necessary for normal fertility 26. Human ancestors have lost a solid hair, characteristic of all living primates. And primates (if they are shaved) are all white, and only the areas exposed to the sun (face, hands) are strongly pigmented. It can be assumed that after the loss of hair, the human ancestors also were not black at first 27.

    Even in antiquity, thinkers, comparing different nations, noticed the influence of climate on economic prosperity and the level of social development of society. Thus, the Greek philosopher Aristotle in 350 BC. wrote that those peoples who live in a cold climate are "full of spirit". Already in the New Time A. Smith thought about why some countries of the globe are rich, while others always live in poverty. It would seem that the colder the climate, the harder it is   to people. But it turned out the opposite: the poor countries are located in the geographical zones of the warm climate - the tropics, and the majority of the rich countries are in the temperate and subtropical zones.

    25 Lahrm. M., Foley R.A.Toward a theory of modern human origins: geography, demography, and diversity in modern human evolution // Yearbook of physocal anthropology. 1998. Vol. 41. P. 137-176.

    26 Jablonski N.G., Chaplin G.The evolution of human skin coloration // Journal of Human Evolution. 2000.Vol. 39. P. 57-106.

    27 Yankovsky N.K., Borinskaya S.A.Decree. cit.

    Exceptions are minor, but they are not always explicable. In a temperate climate, poor countries are located - North Korea and Mongolia. But the cause of their poverty lies in the totalitarian regime and isolation from the mainstream world. In Mongolia, an additional disadvantage is the small size of the population scattered over a vast territory replete with desert and arid areas that are almost unsuitable for agriculture. On the other hand, more or less wealthy states like Hong Kong and Singapore, which are located in the tropics, are flourishing because they are shopping centers, in the creation of which developed countries, such as England, played a significant role. The only mystery for scientists is that Russia, which has two circumstances: a temperate climate and a totalitarian regime - act in opposition to each other.

    The entire economic life of South Africa is concentrated in a small coastal area, where before, under apartheid, only the white population lived - people from Britain. As soon as after the fall of apartheid, power passed to the indigenous population and the white population emigrated to the developed countries of the West, the country began to experience economic decline and social degradation.

    On Earth, there have always been rich and poor countries. But it’s not at all necessary that rich countries have always been rich and poor countries are always poor.

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